SnowGoose69

Yup. I bought the first new car of my life in June of 2018 (sonata) and because I had no loan history at all at nearly age 40 and only one credit card I got a lousy 5.8% loan rate. To make it more shocking I payed 50% in cash too so my loan was for a lousy 14,500 and 2 banks despite a credit score of 740-750 straight up turned me down due to lack of history. People often ask me why did you not just pay the whole car off then? I said because I wanted to get some sort of history on my record before buying a house. I payed the loan off a few months ago in one shot. My credit score is now 812. Meanwhile the 2018 Sonata has had some issues for sure. A couple of times it has not immediately started in cold weather and I've had to hit the button 4-5 times. Some folks in the Plains/Midwest last winter could not get them started at all and had to have the solenoid assemblies replaced. Oddly enough it was never recalled to this day.

My first thought when I read this was 12/4/91 or the 1/16/92 bust but this one I don't remember.

The 12/26/93 storm was miserably and I mean miserably handled by NOAA/local mets etc. They completely abandoned ship off a slight shift east in the 12Z guidance that morning despite the fact by noon the radar along the DE/MD coast was clearly west of the 12Z models. I think all warnings outside Suffolk got dropped and by 3-4pm it was obvious the snow was coming straight up the coast. They ended up having to put advisories back up by 7-8pm.

To an extent. If you have a “pig ridge” massive EPO ala 93-94 or 13-14 then in essence it’s nearly impossible to have a -NAO. You can have a -AO though in that setup because the ridge can extend so far north it’s poking more or less near the pole and causing higher heights there. However, an EPO as strong as we saw for long durations of those 2 seasons more or less correlates to lower heights in the area across NE Canada towards Baffin Island. Any semblance of a -NAO would be very east based

That bomb of a storm in the plains that gave Oklahoma City like 2 feet on 12/24/09 pretty much torched the MA and then gave them rain. I thought they had a snow pack still on 12/25 though. I was at Skins/Giants on 12/22 and there was plenty of snow down there still

That was dangerously close to being a catastrophe of a bust. The system started sliding more east than expected and nearly ending up missing a good part of the area. I remember that evening around 6pm sitting at home thinking this is really going to bust isn’t it? It ultimately slid far enough east that most of northern Jersey didn’t see major snows

The 5 boroughs of NYC were never under a winter storm watch one time from March 1996 til 12/29/00. That shows you how pathetic things were in regards to winter storms in that period. January 2000 because the storm snuck up on us at the last second they went straight from nothing to a winter storm warning otherwise the streak would have been 11 months shorter

The next week is a good example of how even when the Pac sucks if the AO and NAO are negative it’s fairly hard to have an all out torch pattern in the East because you can’t set up a long term SE ridge unless your NAO is very east based

That’s such a weak amplitude wave I’m not sure it would have any major impact

If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out

The LOL GFS thinks this is all rain for the coast.

The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high. You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again. That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love. One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately.

Not in this case. This thing is strung out and weak. I'm more concerned with QPF amounts than I am mid level WAA. This is one that if we had a stronger disturbance could have dropped solid snow amounts. But I am skeptical at the moment this may trend drier and drier.

I think someone sees a nice period of snow with this because the initial surge is coming from a pretty strung out disturbance. I would be more worried at this point that we see QPF drop off then a warming trend because some of the guidance really shows this as a sheared mess.

All it really can do is prevent a massive SER from developing so you probably won’t see a 570dm ridge with a high of 75 as you might see if the AO and NAO were strongly positive

This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch

It’s not a La Niña so I don’t know why so many forecasts had a doom and gloom winter from NYC-DCA. Considering December was supposed to be the worst month and NYC could still get out of it with above normal snowfall (I think they only need 3 more inches to do that). I think many of the forecasts at least for them might bust. PHL/DCA remains to be seen

The Pac has to be extraordinarily bad for a -NAO/AO combo to not at least give you some chances. Generally as long as there isn’t a death vortex in the GOA a bad Pac can be cancelled out enough by the Atlantic. The Pac basically sucked in 10-11 even in December and January but it didn’t matter with the -NAO. We still did well. I should add also the Pac influence becomes less and less against an NAO/AO the later you get. We saw this in December 96 and I believe December 2012. Bad Pac was able to beat out the good AO, NAO or both but if you have the same thing going on in later January the Pac will lose more frequently

It’ll be a solid event if the system is weak and not too amped. Could see a 3-6 inch event before the turnover in that case

This one has to be weak because the high positioning and area which the storm approaches from aren’t ideal for a significant from end snow here outside of NW areas

The GFS is horrendous with SWFEs beyond 84-90. It sometimes might have the general track idea right but it usually has everyone south of BDL raining for the entire storm or snow for 1 hour. Once inside that range it’ll usually start showing the front end snows

I’m not sure if that LE was correct though. It is pretty darn accurate today at Central Park but I don’t believe there was an ASOS there yet then they were using some sort of old school home weather system for readings from October 1993 til July 1996 when I think the ASOS was put in so very possible that reading was erroneous

There was some pretty nasty dry slotting from about NYC to Nassau for a time. Quite a few places there saw only 16-22 inches or so. I want to say BDR only reported 17-18. We’ve definitely had some oddball measurements over the years at the airports and NYC. That Newark measurement on 2/11/94 I think most agree was wrong. NYC’s measurement on 1/22/87 I had an NWS Met tell me 18-20 years ago they KNOW was wrong. Recently we obviously have some real awful ones but even before 2000 we saw occasional sloppy reporting

I’m not a big Bastardi “agreeer” but he’s probably right in this case. The Euro in events like this will tend to be too flat or dry. I’m definitely thinking more NAM/RGem is more likely. The NAM May have sucked at 12Z in regards to QPF but that was probably a blip as it still looked okay otherwise

UKMET at quick glance on poor maps seems like it could be significant but may be more for inland locations