SnowGoose69

It develops the system way too late. The 500 track though isn’t bad

It basically is the same idea as the Euro. It just develops everything 18-30 hours later

TBH based off thickness alone I have no idea how all that precip after 81 isn’t snow everywhere. I wouldn’t get into temps this far out but in that sort of setup with a low that deep everyone west of it is snowing

Right as I was wondering to myself if Gary Bettman is okay. He really looked bad today

The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts

I don’t know but it always had a severe west bias and when it didn’t for the January 2014 bust I knew we was in trouble

The scary thing is the intention by NCEP to basically NGM the NAM from here on out and do no further updates and then discontinue it when the GFS is considered good enough to be the only US model. My feeling is they’ll have to reconsider in 3-5 years when things aren’t going as planned

The GFS hasn’t necessarily worsened but in the last 8-10 years there’s been so much advancement in the high res models that it’s just more or less useless now. It didn’t seem as bad in 2009 or 2012 because the other models weren’t as good or didn’t exist

The Op Euro has been way better so far this cold season on not having an amped bias from 84-120. I believe it had an upgrade in April or May and that seems to maybe have fixed that issue

It feel as if from 36-90 or so it does. Beyond that I remember something telling me that from 96-120 if it is in lock step agreement with the GFS or Euro it’s generally an indicator the GFS/Euro idea are wrong and that they’ll undergo some type of huge change in track/evolution in the next day because the NavGEM just is that bad at that range it means the GFS/Euro idea have to be wrong too

It can be useful at times for trend ideas. I haven’t looked at it today but if it was snowing a complete whiff today for the entire NE you could argue there’s a better chance this ticks south vs if it’s in dead agreement with the Euro it could mean this will end up congrats Ottawa

Yeah I’ve never seen our area here get major snows from this sort of setup nor even a high end advisory event

Haha....have you seen the NAO the last 6-7 years in March and April?

There’s no way the pattern will stay that warm for that long. My guess is by 2/1 it flips. TBH we may be better off just getting that miserable pattern in mid to late January vs what’s happened last few years where a massive SE ridge has occurred in February

The Euro has been trending the last 2 days towards killing that wave quickly. It’s probably better for us than it going high amplitude into 6 and maybe taking forever to get to 7 or just spending forever in 5 and 6

Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting.

I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too

While I believe it goes into 4/5 I am not sure on the amplitude. The tendency the last month or two has been for it to want to be lower amplitude than show 10-20 days out.

Yeah February and March could be big months. January I would say is tossed at this stage but subject to change. The MJO looks to go into 4-5 and maybe 6 starting 1/7. That means probably no major effect from it til 1/12-1/14. Thereafter it’s at least 15 days til it either goes into the COD or into 7 so I would toss the remaining 2 weeks of the month and then see what happens thereafter. It remains possible that from 1/6 til the 12th or 14th some type of snow event could occur

The only way that storm doesn’t cut in that pattern is if the pattern is fluid and transient. There’s been a few storms over the years (never KUs because of the speed) that have run over 40-70 in a setup such as that. They usually occur right at the start of the cold outbreak which as we know is rare. In general when you see a pattern shift, even a brief one the snow event usually occurs several days or more in. Then immediately after the storm the ridge out west breaks down again it moves into the plains and we go right back to warm. If that ridge holds there for 7-10 days behind the storm and the pattern isn’t transient that thing cuts most of the time

If the Euro having that insane 4-5 passage is right this winter could very well be over. It basically starts it around 1/12. So figure you’re toast through 2/1 minimum if it’s that strong of a wave. My hunch though is that it won’t verify anything like that

The main hope now is that the ECMWF MJO forecast is wrong because if it’s not we might have a window 1/8-1/20 and then it’s gonna be over for 2-3 weeks again

95-96 was. 10-11 I think was the result somewhat of a lag in the atmosphere from the strong Niño the prior winter which led to blocking early. Once past 1/20-1/25 or so that blocking was gone and the winter was over. 95-96 was also an extremely weak La Niña on the order of like a 2000-2001

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there. I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north. It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too

Yeah it’s nowhere near as bad as last year with a SOI of like -100 and there being zero periods of a NAO/AO at all. It’s likely gonna flip at some point