jpeters3

Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out. And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything? I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days. Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge?

The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger. Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point.

Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science. Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. Yeah I'm with you. I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall. This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.

FWIW, forecasted shear among dynamical models is generally in the 20-30 kt range upon entry into the gulf.

This ^^^^^

VWP from KINX is less than impressive in the lowest km. Actually, there is more ESRH for left-movers, which probably explains why the left split moving toward Columbus KS is holding its own.

right, but the wind field will change completely as that happens. So that profile has no bearing on the severe threat further south the warm sector. I could probably find a thousand hodos a season north of WFs with 1000+ J/kg of 0-1 km SRH.

Not sure why he tweeted this hodo. It's 61/56 at SGF, so clearly on the stable side of the WF.

On the same token, I also believe that 5-20-19 should have been a high risk, despite having under-performed. 9 times out of teen, that type of setup will produce a widespread tornado outbreak.

I strongly agree with SPC's decision. Hindsight is 20/20 - there were considerable question marks approaching this event (more than in the case of 5/20). 9/10 events with this many uncertainties approaching the event do not end up becoming major outbreaks. So I think it was a good forecasting call. A high risk would have been irresponsible, IMO.

bingo.

New circulation forming.

You are an evil satin worshiper for what you said. ;-) In all seriousness, sorry for being a dick.

TDS and no warning. Edit: just issued.

The Bassfield storm produced larger TDS signatures, stronger GTG velocity, and lofted debris higher. More impressive thank this. Oh, I see what you're saying. It's quite possible that this storm produced a violent tornado, but nothing has screamed "more impressive" than the southern MS storm from last weekend, much less countless other storms over the past few years.

I think this is about to produce a massive tornado...

There were several more impressive ones a week and a half ago in MS, and another one last weekend in MS.

I think a new bigger meso is forming over winworth...

Looks like there might be multiple areas of, at least weak, rotation

I think it has been on the ground virtually the whole time. There haven't been any moments where the meso turned left and shed into the RFD. Obviously this isn't always how cycling happens, but the debris signature has been so consistent.

I think they are basing it off of SPC's radar-based judgement.

That'll do it...

Link?

Low-level lapse rates are very small in this area (you can see the warm nose in the TAMU sounding). This might be an inhibiting factor.