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So all who had it as a gimme and or 1-4" etc...you're winners. I'll check some more data tomorrow. So, what this means to me... we've had a unique two consecutive months in our NYC CP history, seldom seldom recording two 10+'s in a row. Can our two month total exceed 1983's two consecutive months (see top of thread) 24.55"? Need 3.16" or thereabouts. Finally, long-long-long shot, but might we try for a third totally unique 3 consecutive months. Seems like we have to get a dose of IDA (RRQ of se Canada trough and inflow at 850 from IDA). That could be in the 3-6" range... (or miss us?). I may be starting a NORA contribution thread tomorrow, as I'm pretty sure RH is going to come out of Baha and cross the Rockies and join an approaching CF here ~ the 5ht or so. Then after the 7th??? There may be more? Repeating trough looks okay to our west if we get some more TC up w of 80W Longitude.

0.08 so far today at CP ending 20z/27. that raises the monthly total to 9.73 and only 0.27" more by Sept 1 too exceed 10". Aint lookin good for the NO's like myself on this one.

No change on IDA, tho impacts may delay day or two in some of the modeling??? I just don't know. Waiting it out. NORA has an increasing chance of some contribution to rain here, ~ the 5th or a bit later (examine ensembles). Additionally, if IDA delays enough, the two TC's could combine. Lot's of uncertainty on timing both.

Since PHI issued their FF Watch yesterday afternoon, guidance is still vulnerable to 2" one hours rains, have opened a thread for commented event info. My thinking is heaviest will occur in the interior of NJ; but NYC nor sw CT, extreme se NYS are not out of the potential. My guess is that if the region north of I78 is to FF, it will probably have occurred by 9AM Saturday with two possible bands, one late this afternoon-eve, and another near dawn Saturday. How much of this heavy convection drifts over into NYC is questionable but t's not impossible to see 1-2" in parts of the 5 boroughs. Maybe the most favored areas are near I78 and possibly the hilly areas of far northern NJ. In any case, convection could impact the evening commute and wet microburst severe wind is not out of the question late today.

So the( probable) IDA thread has started, taking that TC related event off the Sept thread. Now we look to a Nora (Pac Bsin) contribution???? around the 5th as the modeling continues to infuse a tad bit of PW moisture across the the Rockies into the Plains and eventually our way??? And then another, this time Atlantic Basin TC might be of local interest here around the 10th. Both of these are a bit of stretch but am monitoring Septembers first two weeks as a period of TC interest.

650A Tuesday Aug 31: adjusted headline with mdi-iso Major impact esp NJ/LI, Dropped PRE since no TC and therefore no criteria. 6AM Sunday August 29 thread title update. Added general 2-8" rainfall, added possible PRE, and withdrew the ? of direct or indirect. Description of increasingly likely impacts around 7AM Sunday. This issuance makes the presumption that IDA will be our next Tropical Storm and move north into the Gulf states, shearing out into the Northeast or mid Atlantic states 500MB confluence zone next week. For now the risk of all the tags above is low, but worthy of monitoring. It's possible our first rain (if indeed IDA spreads rain into our NYC subforum?) might arrive late on August 31st. Think at this point, antecedent soil saturation and streamflow conditions will assist determining whether there will be any renewed stream flooding, if indeed IDA does dump a stripe of 3-6" of rain in a portion of our subforum. Chance of 35+ KT wind gusts is also low with the main contribution of IDA, rainfall, to Septembers total. Tides are fairly low so am not anticipating any problem with tides, at least not at this Thursday August 26th thread initiation. Attached the 12z/26 GEFS 500 MB membership for 12z Wed Sept 1 to show the confluence zone and also the 12z/26 24 hr qpf from the EPS and GEFS. For now these show a glancing blow to our south with a complete subforum no rain miss still possible, but not likely. The WPC Day 6-7 forecast issued 1622z/26 confirms the potential for at least some rain.

Ida/Julian: No named storm yet heading for GMEX and no thread at this time but it now reverses with the potential minor Baha influence, with a much faster first three days of Sept influence here (unless stays just south), and the Baha minor contribution leaking across the northern Rockies toward the 6th-7th. The latter continues to be a 5% risk, imo. Ida/Julian whichever it is (competition first named with the mid Atlantic), can be monitored for a possible rainfall contribution up here. I won't be adding much more to this until Friday morning.

Good Thursday morning, WPC has almost 1.5" NYC by the end of the month. SPC HREF tries for Friday. HRRR is not optimistic through 06z/Sat. Other 00z/26 models including UK/EC struggle to get to 1/4". I didn't check ens but am sure they're over the .35" limit. From an EC K index perspective, it's more or less we get it late today or we have to get late Sunday or Monday. The probably soon to be named Caribbean-GMEX TC influence arrives too late for August. Let's see how this evolves. 513A/26

Due to time constraints here at home... will hold NO, but completely understand trends are for more than .35". I do know point specific qpf is exceedingly difficult to predict and that you can 1"/mi or greater gradients (MKE FF 1987), so unless it's a well defined slow moving front or an area of low pressure passing along or just s of I80, I get a little reluctant to express HIGH confidence. Seven days is a long time but we're now through day 1. Maybe we can end this tomorrow or Friday, but if we don't by Sunday night, then I think the uncertainty increases a bit. I as many others are rooting to accomplish the rarity of two successive I've attached CP August 2021. First 9 days less than 0.35, and ditto 12-20. So it does happen. In this pattern, will it again?

Am unskilled at analogs. I sort of stood by... had my doubts. So hoping you're right about 44, but have no idea. Let's review at the end of September... just as we do all the topics. Sure continues to look good for the first two weeks of Sept. Eric Blake SR MET at NHC just tweeted on the coming Ida or Julian, whatever it's named for GMEX. Modeling continues large and strong (GFS-GGEM especially).

Am not yet starting a thread for what will either be Ida or Julian (possible Center trap Atlantic TC naming may compromise the probable GMEX TC). However, multiple indications are that the GMEX TC will spew moisture - potentially a period of heavy weather into the Ohio Valley-mid Atlantic region between the 4th-8th. Whether it remains just s of our NYC subforum is in question. Unamed and too early. Also, fwiw, and a remote possibility of minor RH infusion is what may happen with the eventual probable development of the eastern Pacific storm near Baha (Nora?). Some of RH might break through the southwest USA and curl east late next week as well....again that's just a tiny chance (my estimate is 5 or 10%). 25/631A

Maybe the odds are tilting toward a YES? Depends in part what happens between Fri-Sun of this weekend (27-29). Here's the new ensembled WPC outlook issued early this Wednesday morning.

We can still change thru 1159P Wednesday. I think this sort of fits the recovery period that so often occurs after big events. NAEFS was conservative...seeming to be 1/4" thru 8/31. However, and there is always a however :), may need to monitor tropical moisture peeling nwd-newd-then end from Baha and coastal Texas toward us ~8/31. Right now, I bank on that arriving just a little too late.

Virtually all of us are aware of our wet July August. CP is poised to exceed 10" of rainfall, for only the second time in its recorded history dating back to 1869. Despite the controversy involved with the CP rainfall data of 1983, the two successive month record stands alone, back to March-April 1983 and as Bluewave noted, EWR also exceeded. I've not checked any Cooperative program data from that time, but there may be other supporting information for the CP data. What date, if any, do you expect CP to exceed 9.99" this August? Closing date for your date prediction is 1159 PM Wednesday August 25. (no editing of your comment after calendar Aug 25) What do you win? NIX... except some back slaps from your American Weather friends. I'll start the ball rolling: Guessing will not exceed- certainly don't see this as a gimme, at least not yet (I can change my mind up to 1159PM tomorrow). So, this is an uncertain forecast-maybe not using the ensemble data to my best advantage but playing conservative, despite odds would say we should see normal 1 week qpf these last 7 days. Also, I can move this topic elsewhere if you wish... I just thought it meshes well with the events that have just passed, and possibly ahead in September. Added Bluewave post below... thank you for your work on this. The topic title was edited 8/28 in (parentheses) . Th

Thank you very much! So, then i should reconfirm CP has never recorded two successive months of 10+"?

Quick post to confirm: I think Bluewave or maybe Don posted this. ONLY two successive months for CP 10+" are March-April 1983?? Once I know that, i can set up a tiny challenge with no financial reward. Thanks, Walt

The radar post at about 6am lends some credence to the variable banded amounts southern Li. Eventually in your lifetime modeled banded rainfall will be even more accurate.

The map ranged 22-23 does include Sat eve since the 34 hrs ampunt dated the 22nd began at sunrise the 22st. Those totals are not all inclusive but reasonable

Hope you're right.

For what it's worth, the Op single member 12z/23 GFS has two opportunities for tropical rainfall connections. The Baha modeled TC arriving here or south of here around Sept 1? and the consistently cyclically modeled Sept 6-8 TC event. Long ways to go and not spending any time on confidence except to note, existence of two MODELED events around the first week of Sept. What actually happens here could easily be NIL.

Can Central Park finish August with 10"+?. over-under for 10"+ CP in August 2021? Not a gimme... IF i've read the data correctly. NYC at 2PM/23 is 9.65". Not setting up a wager but this could be interesting leading up to Sept 1. Shower risk yes, but no guarantee from me that CP sees 0.36" more between 2P today and the end of the month, unless maybe this afternoons convection ends this bit of fun. In the meantime: I've added some final CoCoRAHS maps for the past 24 (endings 23rd) and 48 hours (13z 22nd-23rd combined) Verifying: I think I'd give an overall Moderate impact event. We fortunately missed 50 KT gusts (and associated power loss) and the CF was also apparently significantly less. The rainfall in broad generalities was pretty big, with a fairly high impact band (s) NYC--along I80 NJ into ne PA. HPC HREF did a consistently good job with the QPF and the Hurricane Models I think outperformed most if not all the typically reviewed Extra Trop models both mesoscale and global.

Am I correct??? CP now at 9.51 for the month with their 0.93” at 12z on the 6 hr ob???? We do have a chance of 10+ for August.

A quick post: CoCoRAHS 1 day rainfall and 2 day. Click each map to view in greater clarity-detail. Thanks.

Wantage NJ (this part) in extreme nw NJ. 5.10" since 9PM/21, includes 4.1 yesterday most of which feel between 6P and 9P/22. For an early look 8AM/22 to 4AM/23...radar multi sensor rainfall...conservative for sure but the idea of max axis. I say give the SPC HREF some props, as well as sometimes the HRRR, often the HRRRX, and even the GGEM tho it was wayyyy off on tracking Henri. I'll add a very general wrap on the storm and CoCoRAHS 2 day acscums, probably this evening around 9P>

Wantage NJ 3.46" today and 3.91 storm total in about 24 hrs.