wdrag
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all 12z modeling including the future FV3, REGEM, NAM and HRRR slightly warmer. not good for reaching forecast snow values unless we can get some decent snow increase rates by 18z.
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Forum moderators may still redefine the headlining thresholds. Have heard from one. I do not hide behind reiterating the obvious variabilities and I don't want to be too wordy.. come to bat...see the ball and give it my best swing at an encompassing useful set of info and go from there. No one should complain tomorrow if there are any morning delays. The complaints can be profuse if its overkill and I'll stomach the wrong headline. All the NWS and non-NWS tools that I know ion were balanced applied. We on the forum gave useful days lead time and information on how to consider a disruptive event even if for only a few hours whether air or sfc travel. mPing event coming to NYC I think despite the warmer cycles. NYC probably no go on measurable sleet snow due to temps at sunrise near 36. CoCoRaHs obs Wed am as well as posters and ASOS/AWOS will answer. For now... edge snow snow-sleet-ice just nw of I95.
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Added the NWS snowman that weren't into the 4AM forecasts, and the side bar notes are my opinion. Will check back at 5P.
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Regarding the NAM: I've no idea what will replace it or will it have a FOUS? That said... the NAM is a bit whacked. First it had very little south of I84 min earlier cycles, now its gone ballistic Poconos to BOS. I've not used this in my personal briefing. I do add for your interest, something that we can all evaluate with the Wed morning CoCoRaHs data. imo, play the numbers conservative. I do think 1"/hr snowfall rates from just north of KABE into nw NJ tomorrow morning 9A-Noon, then rain or mixed. mPing may be of value for NYC. 4AM advisory and watches in purple and blue. Then various model outputs from the 00z/1 cycle.
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I've noted the adverse comments on storm interest. I'll review any MODERATOR impression on value added for this thread. This has been accurately portrayed in advance, I think, and the thread still looks pretty good as of 5AM today. Moderator just tell me if you dont want a headline for the forum on an event like this. Thanks... Walt
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ECAI is NO warmer than its 06z version... holding firm, in the range of noise whether any 5-10 mi slight south adjustment is worthy of significance. What I aw was some slightly colder T/TD's compared to the 06z version... Not sure whether NYC CP can hit 40... looks slightly colder upper 30s mostly rain but am not changing anything in previous threadline or I95 considerations. Maybe tomorrow I'll adjust to a moderate impact 6" event nw hills NJ-Poconos through interior se NYS w CT and interior MA. I think a low improbability wet snow ice tree limb breakage zone might be from maybe Easton PA to Passaic-Morris County-HPN-IJD line where temps hover at or below 32F all day. and IFFFF 4+" can accumulate on trees and wires. Again low prob but depends on qpf and ptype. Still uncertainty on qpf amounts but strong fluxes with PRESFR as the low intensifies more than a mb/hr after 12z Tue, and so will have mixed ptypes both n/s of the general r/s line. mPing might be helpful.
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fwiw: Today might be a good day for housekeeping on locations of our various posters. Mine comes up pretty clean but for many on here, I've no clue. Might be good to edit more detail. Thanks for considering value added.
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Wantage NJ at Noon. 0.1" from the snow showers since 9A. pavement wet...melting on pavement contact. 32.5 and still snowing at 1211PM 11/30/25. For those wondering where am located -- southern Wantage NJ which I consider part of i84 corridor-keeping posts simple.
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Wantage NJ 32.7 maybe 0.2 on some of the grass - dirt but cant officially measure as melt son contact. still snowing at 1118A
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That's correct... presuming temps at 5-6A are 31. Am not absolutely sure they will. be that cold in the cities. EC AI slightly warmer. No matter, intensity at onset matters. Also, by the time this gets here, I would think DPW's have treated cities to make it easier for the urban centers of I95. Otherwise some troubles lurk for the interior, including wet snow acc of 4" or more causing a few tree limbs to break s CT to NNJ
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The southeastern edge of this wintry event should lie along the Interstate 95 corridor and include NYC-Philly-DC-Baltimore where a minor accumulation of sleet or snow occurs during the Tuesday morning rush hour. For these I95 urban centers, lets count on 0.1-1" of snow sleet at the start but probably not much of a problem due to anticipated melting on pavement. Still I'd leave a little earlier there and count on rain by 10AM. No change from me on the thread headline. That's my take at 7AM
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I see just about everyone has tossed in the towel. So for now it's the best global modeling in the world (EC-EPS ECAI) vs all the other warmer model runs. Results ahead... front end could be a little bit of accumulative fun for us Tuesday morning. Will check back tomorrow to see if my over reliance on these colder cycles have any validity going forward.
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You'd have to believe the Euro has more data and later input time... and more reliable (at least I do). I am sort of surprised it doesn't amp. ECAI does amp and plenty of snow interior. I'll be watching AI temps at 18z and 00z//3 carefully for trends on AI. Banding of wet snow could be a problem for some tree branches just s of I84 in nw NJ sw CT.
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That's what I just saw as well. Research prior to the birth of many younger mets. I still think it worthwhile for forecasters who have time, to run a quick check.
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Tech Attachment from 1989 attached> references an older set of models but the pattern still applies. See the checklist. https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta88-17b.pdf
