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IF wind advisory Fri, think it will be mostly 5A-Noon. No thread on this til at least Wed...too marginal.

Just so everyone is aware... this is not AI Ensemble... just a single member. You'd be astounded if I posted the EC FRAM Freezing rain output from some of the recent EC cycles... ice storm big impact... fortunately ensembles temper enthusiasm and of course we're in the unreliable = beyond 10 day period when this occurs. I love EC AI but I've Zero experience monitoring beyond a week. Maybe we'll soon have occasion? I attached the most significant ECAI 24 hr 10 to 1 snowfall (not taking into account potential melting pavement). Note that most of this is in the last day or two of the 16 day cycle. I've no confidence. However, the ECAI seems a little colder than the traditional globals that we use and it has snow acc for I95 to the coast (including NYC/LI) around Dec 1-2. I need to see more support before it get enthusiastic.

Unreliable D10-11 EPS signal, but cyclically advertised, possibly biased high by single model output... an ice event I84 corridor around Dec 3-4? Standard high terrain but even some minor indication valleys just nw of I95. Again D10-11 so chances are? I am monitoring for myself.

Saw the prior 24 hours of posts... and suggests but not locked into a Wind Advy thread Fri 11/28, possibly starting Thanksgiving afternoon. Awaiting 12z/24 (Monday) modeling.

Yes, I hear its not full blown. I guess we cannot count on a stratwarm in late winter since they're rare. if we end up below normal snowfall in Dec, the best of winters long nights and snow potential may be gone for the season. Hoping this comes together for us.

I've appended the week 3-4 CPC Outlook issued 11/21 and the monthly outlook issued 11/20. Click for clarity. There has been discussion of the stratwarm impact on North America In December. I hope I'm very wrong thinking "is that all there is around the NYS subforum?" For now unless the 5H cold core recenters - penetrates significantly further south into Hud Bay (below 60N) or we develop a 'general' +PNA, -NAO in December, its impact here in the northeast may be minimal. I just don't know. Others hereon are more informed. Entire month open to discussion...bring on the snow and lets get off to a good start in CP etc.

are we still interested about stratwarm and potential ramifications mid and late Dec?

Ensembles shows some modest interest in snow/ice for the I84 corridor Thanks giving weekend and a period of advisory wind continues to be on the table. Am aware that many on here do not have access to Pivotal Weather ensembles. I'll post those when a thread is developed but I dont want to hype prior to. Hopefully you trust that 00z/20 CMCE, EPS, GEFS ensembles have something around the 29th... I used the more conservative 24 hr snow depth change mean.

Friday evening, I'll start the Dec thread due to already discussed Stratwarm and its impact as a pattern changer-plunger in North America. That way I can add the CPC week 3-4 outlook and any D8-14 hazards which I suspect will be developing in the east, beyond lake effect.

Back to the future: Ensemble qpf storm track more or less southern Plains to the northeast USA next 16 days. Ensembles have no snow prior to D10. but between D10-16 all ensembles try to bring snow accumulation down to the coasts (climo influence?). Nov 30th for now is the EPS next target day for a possible wind advisory. That's D11. Let see if I cant get D1 right... NAEFS has us chilling a bit in early Dec. Have a good day! Thanks for all the overnight reports.

Processes: Cannot circumvent checklists... pilots don't and they fly us successfully. I got a little lazy...circumvented processes. Saw the trend in HRRR/RAP/RRFSA prior to 14z/18 yesterday, accepted HRRR resulting in an F forecast. Global CMCE an EPS ensembles (GEFS, SREF and SPC HREF snowfall terrible) had the axis right which was near I80 but amounts below 2" on 10-1. That should have cautioned me on the 12z/18 verbatim HRRR post. ANDDDD when we're on the gradient edge of qpf, caution flag. I've grown confident in the ECAI but it failed miserably on the north fringe this morning and the EC OP through 00z/19 was lacking. 12z and 18Z/18 HRRR were very similar then I saw the 00z/19 HRRR drop back down to I80--wasnt sure it would hold there. It did. Bottom line: Follow processes ALWAYS inclusive of merging ensembles and being careful on the gradient edge. I sure hope to remember this lesson. Wantage Trace flurries and qpf... basically nil. Attached CoCoRaHs snowfall.

will very briefly explain my laziness via process and the F forecast around 945A.

I've seen an ice pellet report via MPING over sw Long Island at 320AM. Mixed rain/sleet NYC area with possibly a few wet flakes for the Bronx by the time 7AM rolls around.

Flurries have started in Wantage NJ... definitely a HRRR bust from yesterdays 12 and 18z modeling but lets see what the finals are. Sleet on parts of Long Island now.

I updated my 3PM comment with an apology explanation of ground truth knowledge aforehand of a product issuance.