wdrag

Yellow on. radar scope is moderate rain for sure. .01 in this part of Wantage so far.

Continues this morning with the 00z/21 EPS much deeper at 5H than the 00z GEFS, but the 06z GEFS has deepened bug not yet responsive at the surface and resultant rainfall. No thread yet, dependent on la/lo of sfc low and its gradient. It will rain in that period, seemingly Oct 29-30 and may bring October monthly to normal. Too early for me on a thread. EPS twice as much qpf than the GEFS and CMCE so not a lock on a strong system.

Overdone EC/EPS late last week for this morning in terms of SE BL inflow and associated rainfall... Block continues into November, even in its weakened state in early Nov. sometime between Oct 28-Nov 3 maybe something pretty strong? No promises and not self evident in the ops. Am back from this past weekend near CMH with bumpy flight return last evening in OH/PA. Indian marriage celebration... pretty cool.

From the past two mornings partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block - a block that would be helpful for wintry weather in winter. The block lasts at least through October and now seemingly the first week of November?. I didn't carefully check whether ensemble modeling nailed this 5H blocking, October 1 or earlier? EPS did not have it very well at all for late October. Anyway, while the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. Cyclically since at least this past Wednesday, the ECMWF OP CF has a squall line of scattered 45-60 MPH gusts Monday morning, with differing target areas in NJ/e PA/srn NYS. Could be a few power outages/branches down. May not be able to thread in advance but be alert. Bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains for our subforum Mon-Tue. Saw the drought monitor and you've seen subsequent discussion. I did review the 10 min video provided but not the hour long-yet.

Als, ifs anyone is checking... 06z EPS vs GEFS starkly different on digging short wave trough Sun-Monday. Is the EPS far too amped? Think this may be worth keeping an eye on.

Hi Matt, I appreciate your honesty! Therefore the thanks for your post. I am now a little more concerned about process. Seems to me this is human interpretation of objective data sets, of which I'm still unclear and can't find that listed in the drought monitor. I like objectivity supplemented with observed impact truths. River flows, reports from reservoirs, farmers, and evaporattion rates. I think there is a brand new graphic available somewhere on evapotranspiration. Any link? Also concerned about overall transparency but that ties with everything in life. Drought here in nw NJ seems to be relatively superficial... when considering acquire recharge. I'm Unskilled at this but not sure what this attached map suggests today. I think those on this forum very much appreciate your shares

I could benefit from greater u understanding on what went into this lack of reclassifcation downward in NNJ. The yellow stripes e-w across NNJ? Did River flows influence, or local drought reports? Maybe someone can post the radar analysis or whatever went into the evaluation to support the drought monitor. This will help me curb my enthusiasm for expectation. Thank you.

From early yesterday partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block the rest of the month? While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. Not sure if anyone saw the ECMWF OP CF-squall line 45-60 MPH gusts, cycle to cycle since 06z/15, different target areas from NJ/e PA/srn NYS early Monday. Could be a few power outages/branches down. No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains. Latest 06z/16 EC cycle has the surface low driving the CF across the area predawn Monday then redeveloping the deepening sec low s of LI late Mon? Unsure whether this can happen. I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts this morning.

No chatter on the impact of the block the rest of the month? While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. I monitor ECAI my cyclic guide to what should happen as I find it particularly useful on yes/no. Not sure if anyone saw the CF-squall line gusts near 60 MPH vicinity Cape May Monday morning. Whether this occurs as attempted by the 05z EC OP 5-6 days in advance... it's a small possibility. No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains. I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts tomorrow morning.

I've seen references in news clipping from the NJ coast, 4th or 5th worst tidal level since 2000... that's pretty serious in the past 25 years.

Hi... I'm not going into details since time and my age 75 have lost a little of the edge. From Northeast Snowstorms V2 Kocin and Uccellini. Dec 10-12 1992 was huge... heavy snow most of the interior higher northeast and New England. I was up in Marblehead MA. Powerful there. Mar 11-13 was the Eastern USA Superstorm Coast problems with most of the snow interior I95 westward. Also in Marblehead. The Newark Climate Data for Dec 1992 below describes what happened at Newark Airport... Inland colder and snowier. Coast winds, seas and tides were enormous Dec 10-12 while a snowstorm raged interior. Hope this helps

ARI: Averate Return Interval. If anyone does analysis for October mdt coastal flooding events 5 day MODELED 2-3" rain and G40-60MPH, NON TROPICAL... let it rip. I've seen comparisons to tropical related or winter related. Nothing straight up. I'll check back late today. Thanks for your participation and while not worst case D5 outlooked scenario, and an imperfect nor'easter, most will have benefitted from outdoor cancellations and preparations as well as needed rain.

0.37 at my station in Wantage of far nw NJ but the CoCoRaHs 3 day reports and NYS Mesonet show the extent of 1.5-3" that covered, in my estimation about 60-65% of our subforum area with amounts ranging from over 4" in Brick NJ to less than 0.4" parts of western NJ. Also added color coded amounts for the northeast USA, showing the focus of biggest amounts se MA-Cape Cod. Overall, sizable moderate impact, even where amounts less than 1" where intermittent power outages occurred (brief eddy transfer [Richardson #] taking down relative dead wood). Interior eddy downward momentum transfer likely due to fairly strong easterly flow at the top of the boundary layer--always difficult to predict where these spots will occur. If you wish, check back on the WPC 5 day outlook... added below. Actually a little shy up by I84-SNE and I do think this was a one or two year recurrence interval for parts of the coast. ESPECIALLY October NON-Tropical at neap tide. Others chime in with factual info. Please add on OKX and PHI summaries when they arrive. Thank you.

I'm pretty much satisfied with outcomes of this storm... p1 if questions...includes WPC 5 day total. CoCoRaHs tomorrow sometime around 915-930. Still some power outages. Officially at least spotty 3 so far Stony Brook LI, and a fair mounts of 3+ Ocean and Monmouth counties in NJ with 3.6+ at Berkeley Heights.

We'll await the official readings but at Sandy Hook... I think the max came in near 7.8 MLLW or on the cusp of minor-moderate CF threshold... statistically.