wdrag
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Wantage: this part... about 1/4" past hour ...am loving the catch up here. NJ Climate obs look good. Gypsy moths starting here in this part of Sussex County extreme nw NJ again. Second year running. Not prolific yet but for me, time to DUCK TAPE band the oaks. Have a good rest of the day.
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Timing... not everything clean cut. Follow SPC D2 coming out in an hour or so.
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A final note from me today: Saturday's coming convection may have some hailers as I've seen some guidance suggest iso severe further N than currently outlooked, up into e NYS. Going to be some problems for air travel into NYC next several days (beyond the Newark multi problems).
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Good Thursday morning everyone, May 15. All graphics can be clicked for clarity. Added the drought monitor (ONLY LONG TERM NOW IN OUR AREA) and one week classification change (please refer to the legend), plus the flooding reports in central NJ yesterday and the unexpectedly large 48 hour rainfall ending this morning via CoCoRaHs. This 48 hour rainfall will be newly added to next weeks drought monitor assessment and is in my opinion good news for our coming summer (JJA). Sussex County reports (nw NJ) dropped off rapidly to the west fringe of NJ (my part of southern Wantage NJ two day 0.92)
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No thread yet... if ever, but MLB games in Cleveland, Atlanta, Philly, NY I expect will see delays or cancels into D-N double headers this coming Monday-Thursday, possibly Fri and the weekend. Most of the delays-cancels should be Tue-Wed, as a start for my own expectations. I apologize if this duplicates someone else's post. Trends for the axis max rainfall may shift north as it has been the past couple of days.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
CoCoRaHs two day accumulations attached-click for clarity. Max observed 3.5" (se NYS) unless local offices post greater. Max near 2" e LI. Two minor flood warnings in CT with slow rises into Mothers Day. Not much of a watch verification but the rain was needed as displayed and should alleviate what is now listed as only Long Term drought n NJ/e PA/Southern New England. As some noted; s NJ could use more. Have my hopes for more than indicated 12z Tue/13-00z Fr/16 of next week if the upper low can lift a little further north. Worthy of monitoring but no thread til next week, if the unlikely spot 3" occurs up here along and north of I80. Right now we're sort of the northern fringe as per 06z/10 WPC ensembles.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
CoCoRaHs climate observers 24 hr qpf ending 845A/9 Click for clarity.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I still dont quite understand the Watch in our area and its expansion but going with it. NYS mesonet all under 1" so far. NJ however, this is legit. Click for clarity. Wantage fits with at least 1.34 so far... needed.
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Added an OBS thread for the OKX Flood Watch. Am not enthused as I'd like to be, mainly due to antecedent conditions but potential does exist for spot 4" amounts se NYS, W CT... basically within the axis of most modeling heaviest rain northwest of I-95. Seems like the FFG is on the higher side but training - repeat episodes could result in spot flooding within the OKX Flood Watch. CT RVR Flood warning is minor at this time and may not crest til the weekend. Have a good night.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Wantage NJ 0.62 125P-7P. -
Isolated 4" rainfall possible by daybreak Saturday for w CT, se NYS where OKX has issued a flood watch this Friday afternoon 5/8/25. Most modeling has a needed 1-3" spread out over a 36-42 hour period ending Saturday morning. Flood guidance suggests we'll need 2.5" in a 6 hour period for flooding. Lesser rainfall LI NJ and ne PA under 1.5". A snapshot of ensemble forecasts showing minor flooding anticipated at several gages in the north part of the NYC subforum. Long ways to go. We'll add some CoCoRaHs amounts at 9A Friday and see where we stand.
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Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.41" 125P-2P in my stratus (0.45 on my AWN). So the .41 matches the OHP,THP,STP seen at 220PM this afternoon off DIX. No thread at this time... if NWS drops a watch on I84 I lmght add a thread...that seems where iso 4" reports should occur between today-12z Sat. Unlikely thread at this time.
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No thread for 1-3" interior late Thu-early Fri. Antecedent not quite high enough. Samples attached of actual rainfall via CoCoRaHs and NYS Mesonet. (Fri-Tue). (click for clarity) Also yesterdays hail reports near our area in green...not necessarily severe hail.
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Storms late this afternoon might be hailers
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Kittatinny Ridge-Appalachian Trail in western and northern SC and the Del River on the west side might play a role. I agree w your obs.
