wdrag

I updated my 3PM comment with an apology explanation of ground truth knowledge aforehand of a product issuance.

I've seen some comments downplaying the HRRR. 18z vsn nearly identical to the 12z. I think we have to think confluence zone enhancement-band. I see BGM NWS just issued an inch higher terrain. I wont say what will happen but I dont even think our NWS offices will know at 3AM tomorrow when final day products are issued, since very few ground truth reports at 2-3A. The radar should be telling. at 346PM I apologize for being somewhat curt about this knowledge aforehand of a product issuance, but not too many observers of weather, especially rural areas are up at 230AM providing ground truth. ASOS snow isn't the best (Melting snow etc into liquid). Best I can do is make vsby relationships and bright band relationships (research on DBZ conversions-snowfall rate relationships was done a long time ago by a good forecaster at ALB). Maybe I'll be wrong but I doubt if the HRRR is going to miss by more than inch or at worst 2. It should be slippery as outlined in the mid morning post. Pretty good 5H Vort advection toward morning in EPA with decent 8H FGEN and lift in sw flow aloft. A warm frontal wave. It's over before you can say 9AM. Edited at 347PM with my apology explanation.

Well here's the thing... Globals overall have not held onto the structure of the oncoming short wave into confluence zone in NYS New England so have been depressed. 6z EC topped in favor of the 06-09z RRSFA, RAP, NAM3K and 12z HRRR. I sure hope the 12z/18 HRRR is not that far wrong... it could be too aggressive to the north but I expect a 2-4" stripe somewhere near I80 which would be a little south of the 12z HRRR axis. Uncertainty of course but we have to make decisions on what we do. So potentially embarrassing if it fails but this is what I updated locally. Updating I84 corridor 9AM. Plowing will probably be needed for at least the higher elevations tomorrow morning from northeast PA through nw NJ/se NYS into at least southern CT and possibly Hartford Ashford. Too much short term modeling that is at the leading edge of mesoscale modeling is upping amounts and predicting a decent 5 hour event that will require adjusted traveling times. Entire I84 region from the Poconos across nw NJ, se NYS into ag least the southern two thirds of CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning. A 3-6 hour period of wet snow that likely accumulates 1-4"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare for slower travel-delays in your early Wednesday morning travel. In my opinion there is an increasing chance of a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools I80 northward. Overall minor impact anticipated except during a period of heavier snow near dawn. The southern extent of snow somewhere between I80 and I78 and it probably will melt on most pavements south of I80. Monitor NWS forecasts and any advisory in their afternoon issuances. I suspect that their forecasts will become more formidable for our second accumulative snowfall of the season...and pavement covering too. I just dont think a 30-40% chc of precipitation covers it for tonight in nw NJ-NYC. Graphics are the NWS 7A snowfall forecast and the 12z HRRR which sort of mirrors the more conservative 06z EC. Click for clarity.

No thread subforum...posted thoughts in nw suburbs thread but I think Bronx NY will see a rain/wet snow mix 3A-9A Wednesday but no accumulation on pavement--- too warm I think.

Pocono region across nw NJ and se NYS into sw CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning 11/19. A 2-5 hour period of wet snow that could accumulate 1/2-1.5"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare to slow down a bit in your early Wednesday morning travel. There ?might? be a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools north of I80. Overall minor impact anticipated. The southern extent of snow somewhere between I80 and I78 and it probably will melt on most pavements south of I80.

12z/17 cycle in: No thread for the ECMWF first minor barely measurable snow NYC CP 09z/19 and the enthusiastic 11/30 I95 event which should soon be model abandoned- but offers some sort of hope? EC Ensembles are not enthusiastic for measurable snow NYC CP this month but the 12z cycle continues with a potentially wind advisory day sometime between 11/29-12/2. Right now ensembles are saying MAX G around 35 MPH then but for a 300+ hour ensemble, that is noticeably on the high side.

Looking ahead: Appended CPC week 3-4 from this past Friday... and the 11/16 ECMWF EPS from ecmwf.int charts seems to continue the trend to chilling northern USA in December and a storm track extending from the Oh Valley into our area. Could be too warm for snow in CP but I'll go with the standard first date of measurable in CP week two of Dec. That would mean maybe advisory snow-ice for the I84 corridor? LOOOOONG ways off so am only monitoring - not counting on much and skill beyond 10 days is limited, at best. 00z/17 global ensembles that we tend to use are not favorable for snowfall prior to Dec 2, excepting possibly the CMCE. In the meantime eduggs is onto it for overnight tomorrow night as an absorbed but still coherent short wave exits the mid Atlantic coast. No thread fr the subforum at this time nor expected---too limited on areal col erase and sfc/profile temps marginal. Regarding the next advisory wind event... not yet a certainty but a definite possibility between 11/29-12/2.

Closing out my comments on this thread... PNS OKX this morning. Wont surprise a couple gusts 46 MPH today but not like yesterday afternoon-evening. Added PHI PNS at 754AM NOUS41 KOKX 171154 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-172354- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 654 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 52 MPH 0100 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Middletown - Rt9nb - On Ramp 40 MPH 0129 PM 11/16 MESOWEST ...New Haven County... Bethany 55 MPH 0115 PM 11/16 CWOP Stony Creek 54 MPH 0355 PM 11/16 CWOP New Haven Airport 44 MPH 0340 PM 11/16 ASOS Lighthouse Point 43 MPH 0601 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...New London County... Groton Airport 43 MPH 0246 PM 11/16 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 46 MPH 0520 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Essex County... Caldwell 47 MPH 1150 AM 11/16 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 41 MPH 0542 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...Union County... Newark Airport 54 MPH 0301 PM 11/16 ASOS Linden Airport 41 MPH 1155 AM 11/16 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 44 MPH 1140 AM 11/16 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 55 MPH 0320 PM 11/16 NYSM South Slope 51 MPH 1232 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Nassau County... Bayville 58 MPH 0406 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Massapequa Park 51 MPH 0600 PM 11/16 CWOP Wantagh 47 MPH 0735 PM 11/16 NYSM ...New York (Manhattan) County... Midtown Manhattan 47 MPH 0235 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Orange County... Otisville 48 MPH 1155 AM 11/16 NYSM Stewart Airport 46 MPH 0145 PM 11/16 AWOS Montgomery Airport 46 MPH 0334 PM 11/16 AWOS Warwick 45 MPH 0115 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Putnam County... Brewster 41 MPH 0410 PM 11/16 NYSM Patterson 41 MPH 0525 PM 11/16 DAVIS ...Queens County... NYC/JFK Airport 53 MPH 0541 PM 11/16 ASOS NYC/La Guardia 50 MPH 0601 PM 11/16 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 47 MPH 0320 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 45 MPH 1118 AM 11/16 NDBC College of Staten Island 43 MPH 1120 AM 11/16 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 40 MPH 0350 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 60 MPH 0613 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Baiting Hollow 55 MPH 0414 PM 11/16 CWOP Islip Airport 55 MPH 0643 PM 11/16 ASOS Shoreham 53 MPH 0635 PM 11/16 DAVIS Shirley Airport 51 MPH 0709 PM 11/16 ASOS Southold 50 MPH 0510 PM 11/16 CWOP Westhampton Airport 49 MPH 1202 PM 11/16 ASOS Great Gull Island 49 MPH 1248 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Farmingdale Airport 47 MPH 1230 PM 11/16 ASOS Fire Island CG 47 MPH 0655 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Great South Bay 44 MPH 0352 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Blue Point 44 MPH 0734 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Orient 43 MPH 1250 PM 11/16 CWOP Montauk Airport 43 MPH 0407 PM 11/16 ASOS Brookhaven 43 MPH 0645 PM 11/16 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 43 MPH 0805 PM 11/16 CWOP Fishers Island Airport 42 MPH 0221 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Mecox Bay 42 MPH 0618 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Ridge 42 MPH 0138 AM 11/17 CWOP Southold 41 MPH 0540 PM 11/16 NYSM East Moriches CG 40 MPH 0155 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Stony Brook 40 MPH 0812 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Westchester County... White Plains Airport 55 MPH 0420 PM 11/16 ASOS Tappan Zee Light 14 53 MPH 0524 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Croton 43 MPH 1033 AM 11/16 WXFLOW ...Maritime Stations... ...Connecticut... Stongington Outer Breakwater 51 MPH 0237 PM 11/16 WXFLOW 1 ESE Norwalk 49 MPH 0107 PM 11/16 WXFLOW USCG Academy 41 MPH 0214 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...New Jersey... Jersey City 41 MPH 0538 PM 11/16 CWOP ...New York... 15 S Atlantic Beach 54 MPH 1250 AM 11/17 NDBC Robbins Reef, NJ 52 MPH 1048 AM 11/16 NOS-PORTS 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 51 MPH 0740 PM 11/16 NDBC Northport 49 MPH 0605 PM 11/16 DAVIS Point O Woods YC 49 MPH 0602 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Larchmont Harbor 48 MPH 0317 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Shinnecock 48 MPH 0200 PM 11/16 WXFLOW 15 S Atlantic Beach 47 MPH 0440 PM 11/16 NDBC Kings Point 44 MPH 0536 PM 11/16 NOS-NWLON Fire Island CG 44 MPH 0651 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Manhattan Dwntwn 41 MPH 1018 AM 11/16 AWOS && From Mt Holly near our subforum issued just before 3AM today. ..Hunterdon County... Pittstown 45 MPH 1120 AM 11/16 NJWXNET Readington 43 MPH 0219 PM 11/16 AWOS ...Mercer County... Trenton 52 MPH 0423 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 58 MPH 0449 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... 1.0 NW Keansburg 53 MPH 1051 AM 11/16 HADS SEA BRIGHT 47 MPH 1058 AM 11/16 CWOP Belmar Farmdale 44 MPH 0215 PM 11/16 AWOS Sea Girt 43 MPH 0520 PM 11/16 NJWXNET Monmouth 42 MPH 1047 AM 11/16 WXFLOW Cream Ridge 41 MPH 0120 PM 11/16 NJWXNET Oceanport 41 MPH 0520 PM 11/16 NJWXNET ...Morris County... Morristown 43 MPH 0245 PM 11/16 AWOS Pequannock Twp High School 41 MPH 1216 PM 11/16 MESOWEST ...Ocean County... 1 SSW Seaside Park 54 MPH 1114 AM 11/16 Public 3 N Barnegat Light 52 MPH 1024 AM 11/16 Public Mantoloking 51 MPH 1046 AM 11/16 WXFLOW Rutgers 49 MPH 0107 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Beach Haven 49 MPH 0641 PM 11/16 CWOP Ocean Gate 47 MPH 1109 AM 11/16 Public Harvey Cedars 47 MPH 0105 PM 11/16 NJWXNET Toms River 46 MPH 1202 PM 11/16 AWOS Seaside Heights 45 MPH 1020 AM 11/16 NJWXNET 1 E Toms River 45 MPH 1119 AM 11/16 Public Trixies 45 MPH 1135 AM 11/16 WXFLOW Tuckerton 44 MPH 0111 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Toms River 43 MPH 0155 PM 11/16 DAVIS Seaside Heights 42 MPH 1229 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Tuckerton 42 MPH 0909 PM 11/16 HADS Berkeley Twp. 41 MPH 1120 AM 11/16 NJWXNET South Seaside Park 40 MPH 0109 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Salem County... Mannington Twp. 41 MPH 0140 PM 11/16 NJWXNET ...Somerset County... Somerville 48 MPH 0430 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 54 MPH 0505 PM 11/16 NJWXNET 2 N Hardyston Twp 47 MPH 0145 PM 11/16 AWS Sussex 45 MPH 0153 PM 11/16 ASOS LAFAYETTE 43 MPH 0220 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Warren County... Stewartsville 47 MPH 1220 PM 11/16 NJWXNET ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Reading 53 MPH 1158 AM 11/16 ASOS 2 WSW Hamburg 52 MPH 0325 PM 11/16 PADOT Hopewell 47 MPH 1143 AM 11/16 RAWS 1 SSW Mount Penn 45 MPH 1125 AM 11/16 PADOT LENHARTSVILLE 45 MPH 1230 PM 11/16 CWOP Sinking Spring 44 MPH 1023 AM 11/16 CWOP Kutztown Area Middle School 40 MPH 0130 PM 11/16 MESOWEST ...Bucks County... Doylestown 46 MPH 0113 PM 11/16 ASOS Newbold NOS 42 MPH 1030 AM 11/16 NOS-PORTS ...Carbon County... Lehighton 42 MPH 1125 AM 11/16 CWOP ...Chester County... White Clay Creek West Grove- 52 MPH 0445 PM 11/16 DEOS2 Kimberton 46 MPH 1130 AM 11/16 DAVIS Coatesville 45 MPH 0215 PM 11/16 AWOS 1 ESE West Sadsbury Twp 42 MPH 0150 PM 11/16 PADOT Cochranville 42 MPH 0342 PM 11/16 CWOP Red Clay Creek Kennett Squar 41 MPH 1135 AM 11/16 DEOS2 West Chester 41 MPH 1235 PM 11/16 AWOS WEST BRANDYWINE 40 MPH 0115 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Delaware County... Upper Chichester 42 MPH 0145 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 58 MPH 1133 AM 11/16 ASOS Queen City 46 MPH 1215 PM 11/16 AWOS Macungie 43 MPH 0920 AM 11/16 CWOP Trexler 40 MPH 0143 PM 11/16 RAWS ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 55 MPH 1057 PM 11/16 ASOS Wind Gap 44 MPH 0425 PM 11/16 PADOT ...Montgomery County... 1 SE Fort Washington 51 MPH 1250 PM 11/16 PADOT Pottstown 44 MPH 1202 PM 11/16 ASOS Willow Grove 42 MPH 1100 AM 11/16 CWOP ...Northampton County... CATASAUQUA 43 MPH 0453 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Philadelphia County... 1 SSE South Philadelphia 54 MPH 0310 PM 11/16 PADOT Philadelphia International A 50 MPH 0138 PM 11/16 ASOS Philadelphia Northeast 50 MPH 0240 PM 11/16 ASOS Philadelphia 42 MPH 1115 AM 11/16 CWOP &&

KISP 48 kt in the last hr. PNS will need an update. Much thanks for that. Seems like at least one more wind advisory event between 11/25-12/2.

Probably my last post of the day... Maybe someone could add when PHI and OKX publish a PNS of updated wind reports. Click for clarity. Thanks for your supporting OBS. .

Multitude of reports 40Kt plus since 1PM... note the 47KT at Newark and many 43-46 KT showing up from SNE to PANJ KAGC: Pittsburgh, Allegheny County Airport, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KBAF: Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KBDL: Windsor Locks, Bradley Intl Arpt, CT, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCXY: Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KDYL: Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KELM: Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KFIG: Clearfield, Clearfield-Lawrence Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KFIT: Fitchburg, Fitchburg Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KIPT: Williamsport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KLNS: Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KMGJ: Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMTN: Baltimore / Martin, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KMUI: Muir/Indiantown, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KORH: Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KOWD: Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPHL: Philadelphia, Philadelphia Intl Arpt, PA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KPNE: NE Philadelphia, PA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KPOU: Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KPYM: Plymouth, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KRVL: Reedsville / Mifflin, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KSWF: Newburgh / Stewart, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KTHV: York, York Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KTTN: Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KVAY: Mount Holly, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

Maybe so. That does not explain downed trees in the interior I sure hope you’re safe. OKX issued an advisory. I look at it the 10 meter ASOs gust as roughly crown height. Broken branch dead or not. causes problem. Crosswind gusts are unsafe for many aircraft. Delays etc. Folks get unhappy with delays and then act irrationally. In Some cases. Impatience caused actions when plans are unexpectedly altered.

Looks like just about every airport NYC LI and around e PA have had 40 knots or greater. Think the impact is high ned minor. Worse than the last event and max gusts NYc may not arrive til 5pm

Max Gusts today in MPH per climate sites in NJ and NYS--please click for clarity.

Power outages (meters) at 145PM. in NJ, mostly nw NJ. Pennsylvania12,497 New Jersey10,874