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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. One or two down years in a row seems to be the max before snowfall rebounds in our snowier climate since 02-03.
  2. Sneaky warm layer at 850 mb. SFC 1002 23 -0.5 -1.3 94 0.8 -0.8 13 24 272.4 273.0 272.2 281.8 3.46 1 1000 42 -1.0 -2.0 93 1.0 -1.4 14 21 272.2 272.7 271.8 281.1 3.31 2 950 449 -4.1 -4.1 100 0.0 -4.1 27 52 273.1 273.6 271.8 281.2 2.97 3 900 876 -1.6 -2.0 97 0.4 -1.7 52 70 279.9 280.5 276.7 290.1 3.67 4 850 1334 0.1 -0.3 97 0.4 -0.0 71 57 286.3 287.1 280.8 298.8 4.41 5 800 1818 -2.1 -2.9 94 0.8 -2.5 83 52 288.9 289.5 281.3 300.0 3.85 6 750 2327 -6.6 -6.6 100 0.0 -6.6 73 54 289.4 289.9 280.7 298.5 3.10 7 700 2868 -4.8 -4.8 100 0.0 -4.8 118 63 297.1 297.8 284.8 308.5 3.81
  3. First time this winter that the EPS weeklies corrected colder the closer we got to the forecast period. Feb 1-8 Feb 8-15
  4. Nice band of heavy snow across the whole South Shore of Suffolk. MacArthur/ISP HVY SNOW 31 30 96 NE29G43 29.87F VSB 1/4 WCI 16 Shirley HVY SNOW 31 28 89 NE12G24 29.90F VSB 1/4 WCI 22 Westhampton HVY SNOW 32 30 92 NE20G35 29.91F VSB 1/4 WCI 20
  5. Getting heavy snow now in SW Suffolk and 31.3°. The snowfall rate rapidly increased in the last 15 minutes with this 40 DBZ band.
  6. Light to moderate snow here in SW Suffolk and 31°. I am under that 30 DBZ yellow band on radar. The higher reflectivities are more a function of the very large snow flakes than the actual rate of the snow here.
  7. Right at the expected peak period for 12”+ events since 2010. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0
  8. The storm force onshore flow will result in moderate to locally low end major coastal flooding. So places like Freeport on the water may see their snowpack get floated like icebergs. I saw this with several blizzards in the past.
  9. Yeah, we should all go 12”+ on the front end of the storm. But we need to park under the CCB to go 20”+. I guess the 12z runs will add some clarity as to where the CCB and dryslot set up.
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