bluewave

Numerous stations across the US experienced their warmest summer on record.

Yeah, those warming WPAC SSTs lead to the record MJO 4-6 activity during recent winters. This served to enhance the La Niña background state over the last 4 winters. It resulted in mild to record warm winters with the SE Ridge dominating and setting a new record in February 2018. But the location of the NPAC ridge made the difference between snowy and nearly snowless winter outcomes. 2017 to 2018 featured the ridge near the Aluetians and more NATL blocking with a snowy pattern. During the 2019 to 2020 period ,the ridge was much flatter near Hawaii. So we got the two recent nearly snowless DJF periods along with a strong NATL PV. While it looks like we could experience a 5th La Niña background state winter, we’ll have to see how the NPAC ridge and NATL pattern influence the snowfall potential.

Updated for August 2020. 8....2020...EWR...10..LGA...5...BDR...3...ISP....6

Several stations finished with August top 10 warmth. All our stations except Newark recorded a top 5 warmest summer. LGA established a new warmest summer on record. BDR tied for 1st with 2016 and ISP was a close 2nd to 2010. So numerous summers and summer months in the top 10 warmest just since 2010. EWR....#10 LGA.....#5 BDR....#3 ISP......#6 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2005 77.8 0 6 1988 77.7 0 7 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 8 1999 77.1 0 9 1995 77.0 0 10 2012 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 76.9 0 - 1993 76.9 0 - 1983 76.9 0 6 1949 76.8 0 6 2016 76.7 0 - 1999 76.7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.5 0 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2005 78.0 0 5 2018 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2011 75.8 0 5 2020 75.7 0 6 1983 75.6 0 7 1984 75.4 0 8 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 9 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 1p 2005 75.1 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.4 4 - 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 5 2012 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0

I wonder what the 500MB height record is for Newfoundland in September? All the models are going near 600 DM In about 10 days.

Islip finally dropped below 60° ending the record streak at 74 days. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 74 2020-08-30 2 63 1967-08-31 3 62 2015-08-28 4 61 2003-08-23 5 58 2005-09-05

It looks like we will have a trough in the Great Lakes and Midwest at least into early September. There should also be plenty of high pressure to our north and east with onshore flow here. But we will just have to wait and see how many of the AEWs coming off Africa can actually develop into named systems.

It took until last October for the IO standing wave to emerge with the record +IOD. It continued until mid-December before the record SSTs north of Australia emerged. Then it was off to the races for the record MJO 4-6 which dominated from late December on. There was some research that the IO standing wave being so strong during OND was related to the intense PV which dominated last winter. So it will be interesting so see how the Indian Ocean and Pacific interact this coming fall and winter.

Numerous stations from Northern Maine to Southeast PA are currently in 1st place for the warmest summer. This includes LGA, BDR, and ISP in our area. It’s impressive how many high ranking summers there have been across this region since 2016. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67.1 2 2 2018 66.2 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 72.4 2 2 1949 72.2 0 3 2018 72.1 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2018 73.6 2 3 2016 73.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 2 1973 74.4 0 3 2005 73.9 0 4 2016 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 2 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 6 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2018 73.5 0 Time Series Summary for Williamsport Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2016 74.4 0 3 1949 74.3 0 - 1901 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 78.1 2 2 1966 77.6 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2010 76.8 0 5 1999 76.7 0 6 2019 76.5 0

The record breaking IO standing wave is making headlines again. Now it looks like it’s producing an early September pattern resembling MJO phase 1. So this translates into the big ridge along the West Coast and trough over the MW/GL. It will limit our early September 90° potential.

It really depends on how long the ridge says locked in along the West Coast. This hasn’t been our typical September pattern during the last decade. There has usually been a trough out there with a ridge over New England.

There are no other parts of the country with the population density of the OKX forecast zones. While Chicago has the change of seasons like we do, they don’t have the added challenge of coastal storms and hurricanes/tropical storms. So the OKX forecast office in Upton has a unique combination of high population, changing elevation, marine influence, tropical cyclones, and a wide variety of active changing weather throughout the year. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183600/population-of-metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/

All I initially mentioned was the challenges of forecasting for NYC and Long Island. You were the one that brought up NJ. When I mentioned other less populated parts of the country ,NJ wasn’t what I was thinking. The NNJ most densely populated counties also present their own set of forecasting challenges. I would say that the totality of the OKX forecast zones in NY, NJ, and CT are probably the most challenging part of the country to forecast for. Most densely populated part of the country with marine zones and mountains and a wide variety of annual changing weather. So our forum is quite unique in that regard.

Still about 2.5 million fewer people than NYC and LI. But most of the population is located in the northern part of the state closest to NYC Metro.

I was talking specifically about NYC and Long Island severe weather events. The narrow 25 mile wide zone of NYC and Long Island has a population of over 11 million people. So we have a very high proportion of the members in the forum. That’s why severe weather and snowstorm forecasts varying by 25-50 miles make a big difference for us. This is often within the margin of error for model forecasts. Not a big deal when it happens in less densely populated regions across the country. But there are more people to notice these small shifts in our tiny geographic region.

These enhanced or higher level severe outlooks usually verify in some portion of the outlined area. But since NYC/LI is only 25 miles wide from north to south, a small shift can make a big difference for us. The July 26, 2012 MDT risk wound up just to our north and west. But the September 8th, 2012 Breezy Point and Canarsie tornado was within that MDT risk.

The biggest NYC and Long Island severe events can occur on days without enhanced risk outlooks. This is not a knock on the fantastic SPC forecast team. But more a reflection on how these events really seem to emerge in the very short term. Perhaps this is just an inherent feature of our local severe thunderstorm climatology. 6-30-2019 https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/wild-weather-leaves-2-dead-3-injured-thousands-without-power https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20190630 9-16-10 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100916 8-8-07 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20070807 Paper on both events https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/27/6/1326/39693/Tornadoes-in-the-New-York-Metropolitan-Region

This month was probably one of the warmest Eastern Trough patterns that we have had.

Yeah, it’s the orientation of the ridge axis allowing more onshore flow and humidity with the heat. The Bermuda High axis extending toward. SE New England has allowed the much more humid pattern during recent summers. Our summers with more 100° heat from 2010 to 2013 featured a flatter Bermuda High into the Southeast allowing more westerly flow here.

It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Max Temperature 1 1955 14 100 2 2020 13 97 - 1999 13 101 3 2012 11 101 4 2010 10 103 4 1995 10 103

All our major stations are top 5 warmest for the summer so far. LGA, ISP, and BDR are currently in 1st place. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 4 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2005 78.0 0 5 2018 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 4 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 8 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 5 2012 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 77.0 4 5 1993 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2020 77.8 4 - 2005 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2020 75.8 4 - 2011 75.8 0 5 1983 75.6 0

IPT missed the record high by a degree. Looks like CDW was the warmest in our area at 95°. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KCDW

EWR gusted to 71 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KEWR

Very heavy downpour, frequent lightning, and 20-30 mph gusts here in SW Suffolk.

The radar velocity looks like there may have been some 50+ gusts around Miller Place and Rocky Point.