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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    The ENSO responses have been all mixed up since the El Niño failed to couple in 18-19. We got more of a Niña-like response that winter. It was followed by a 11-12 raging La Niña-like response during the 19-20 weak El Niño last winter. So I guess it makes sense that we get a more Niño-like response during this moderate La Niña winter. Seems like too many competing SST warm blobs for a coherent ENSO response.
  2. bluewave
    We are on track for our first La Niña February in 30 years with no 60° or warmer days. La Niña years bodied Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2021 51 10 2020 62 0 2019 68 0 2018 80 0 2017 74 0 2016 64 0 2015 42 0 2014 55 0 2013 57 0 2012 64 0 2011 71 0 2010 50 0 2009 66 0 2008 69 0 2007 51 0 2006 63 0 2005 57 0 2004 62 0 2003 50 0 2002 68 0 2001 61 0 2000 66 0 1999 70 0 1998 60 0 1997 74 0 1996 65 0
  3. bluewave
    I am under those yellows on radar in SW Suffolk and it’s sleet and 32°.
  4. bluewave
    Just caught the NW edge if that band here in SW Suffolk and it was light sleet.
  5. bluewave
    It looks like the models may really struggle with the upcoming pattern. We have a near record -5SD polar vortex sitting in NW Canada. At the same time, there is a strong 50/50 vortex. This goes along with the record snow extent across North America. While the MJO is moving into a less amplified phase, it’s unusually variable for this time of year. Like we have seen this week, the SE Ridge has flexed in this pattern. The end result was one warm mostly rain event and another snowier storm that we saw yesterday. So it’s possible that these dueling influences continue through the rest of the month. Models may not pick up on the details of individual storms until a few days out since one storm may influence the track of another.
  6. bluewave
    The counties in Texas that weren’t part of the state grid had fewer power outages since they winterized their local equipment.
  7. bluewave
    4.3” at JFK brings them to 4th snowiest February at 25.3”. SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 4.3 R 2.1 2000 0.3 4.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 25.3 5.5 19.8 0.0 SINCE DEC 1 33.4 16.5 16.9 3.8 SINCE JUL 1 33.4 16.7 16.7 3.8 SNOW DEPTH 1 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2003 32.1 0 2 2010 29.6 0 3 1961 25.4 0 4 2021 25.3 0
  8. bluewave
    4pm Central Park 3.2 in 0400 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs NYC/La Guardia 3.1 in 0400 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Newark Airport 4.0 in 0400 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs
  9. bluewave
    Freezing drizzle glaze on all untreated surfaces here in SW Suffolk and 28°.
  10. bluewave
    NYC enters the top 10 again for snowiest February. This is the 5th top 10 snowiest February since 2003. So we continue with the much snowier pattern than began in 02-03. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2010 36.9 0 2 2014 29.0 0 3 1934 27.9 0 4 2006 26.9 0 5 1994 26.4 0 6 1926 26.3 0 7 2003 26.1 0 8 1920 25.3 0 - 1899 25.3 0 9 2021 24.4 0 10 1967 23.6 0 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 3.2 3.5 1928 0.3 2.9 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 24.4 6.0 18.4 T SINCE DEC 1 37.0 17.8 19.2 4.8 SINCE JUL 1 37.0 18.1 18.9 4.8 SNOW DEPTH 2
  11. bluewave
    That very heavy snow burst got me to 5” here in SW Suffolk.
  12. bluewave
    Yeah, we usually have the heaviest snowfall rates right before we start mixing with sleet. But this time the heaviest rates came after. So a nice surprise.
  13. bluewave
    This is currently my heaviest snow rate of the whole season in SW Suffolk. Started with giant 1.5 “ diameter snowflakes. Now I have visibility under .2 mile in very heavy snow.
  14. bluewave
    Looks like some really large 56 DBZ flakes near Far Rockaway.
  15. bluewave
    Biggest snowflakes of the season here in SW Suffolk in excess of 1” diameter.
  16. bluewave
    Sleet and crunchy rimed flakes here in SW Suffolk now.
  17. bluewave
    The 3km NAM did pretty good.
  18. bluewave
    Yeah, showing up on radar now.
  19. bluewave
    Moderate snow now in SW Suffolk and 26°.
  20. bluewave
    Somebody is probably going 2” per hour in that 40 DBZ band.
  21. bluewave
    Yeah, the more amped up storm a few days ago became a stronger 50/50 low than forecast allowing more confluence over New England.
  22. bluewave
    The high over New England really came on stronger over the last 3 days. The dewpoints are just in the single digits for Boston. So you can see why the bands are struggling to get north of our area right now. Boston CLOUDY 24 5 44 N6 30.53R WCI
  23. bluewave
    Steady light snow here in SW Suffolk with a light dusting on the ground.
  24. bluewave
  25. bluewave
    This winter has probably been the most Nino-like moderate La Niña that we have ever seen. The +PNA for much of the winter has been classic El Niño. The warmer to colder and snowier progression by later in the winter is also El Niño. The -5 AO AO drop this February only occurred in the past during El Niño winters. Funny how the last two El Niño winters in 18-19 and 19-20 had more Niña-like patterns. So something is going on that is altering the expected ENSO response during the last three winters. Probably related to the anomalous warm SST blobs that have popped up all around the globe. The location of marine heatwaves need to be taken into account. But the interactions may be beyond what seasonal forecasts can resolve. The most reliable relationship between snowy winters and the -AO has worked out nicely this winter or us . February -5 AO readings and ENSO 2021.....-1.2 2010.....+1.6 1978.....+0.8 1969.....+1.1
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