bluewave

I was pointing out back in the October and early November threads how the atmosphere wasn’t showing the canonical La Niña patterns. We have been experiencing these more Niño-like +AAM spikes since the fall. So I mentioned that we may not follow a typical La Niña November. This is much like the last few years with mismatched Niño and Niño-like influences at the same time. This is due to all the competing record equatorial and off equatorial SST warmth from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific.

Those long range strat forecasts for change are very uncertain given how strong the PV has been.

The OP GFS longer range has had less of a cold bias than the ensembles over SE Canada. Sometimes, the lower resolution ensembles smooth out the ridge near the near the Northeast too much. Where the OP runs don’t.

It only took NYC 5 years to beat 2015 for warmest November. It took 14 years for 2015 to surpass 2001. And 2001 over 20 years to go ahead of 1979. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 53.0 0 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0

The Euro is really struggling with the split flow. Notice how much different the GFS and CMC are at day 10. Remember, the errors at day 7-10 often build into the day 11-15.

People will probably replant smaller ornamentals that have less chance of damaging their homes in our more extreme climate.

Longer range, we need to watch for the ridge east of New England verifying stronger than forecast. This has been the pattern for a while now. Today is just the most recent case. 7 day Forecast Verification

Numerous 60 mph + gusts across the area. Fairfield County... Stamford 63 MPH 0131 PM 11/30 CWOP New London County... Groton Airport 61 MPH 0256 PM 11/30 ASOS Jackson Heights 61 MPH 0122 PM 11/30 CWOP Kew Garden Hills 60 MPH 0115 PM 11/30 NYSM Orient 66 MPH 0216 PM 11/30 CWOP Stony Brook 64 MPH 0208 PM 11/30 CWOP Southold 61 MPH 0245 PM 11/30 NYSM West Gilgo Beach 61 MPH 0132 PM 11/30 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 60 MPH 0153 PM 11/30 ASOS

The 7-8th will depend on the evolution of the storm threat for the 5th. If the storm on the 5th is more amped, then the 7-8th could get suppressed like the CMC shows. Have to see which model gets the evolution on the 5th correct. The Euro may be struggling with hanging too much energy back to the SW again on the 4-5th.

Plenty of spread between the model guidance at 12z. UKMET and CMC are west while GFS and Euro east. Euro may be struggling with holding back too much energy to the SW again.

Toughest decadal stretch for tree damage continues.

Just gusted to 54 mph on the South Shore with the heavy downpour. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want From SE at 33 mph Gusting to 54 mph

Strongest winds of the day so far along the South Shore gusting to 46 mph in Wantagh. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want

Convection developing to our south now.

Gusting to 63 mph just north of ACY.

NYC tied for warmest November with a day to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 52.8 1 - 2015 52.8 0 2 2001 52.7 0 3 1979 52.5 0 4 1948 52.4 0 5 1975 52.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 52.0 0 - 1994 52.0 0 3 2001 51.9 0 1979 51.7 0 - 1975 51.7 0 4 2020 51.4 1 5 2006 51.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 54.2 1 2 2001 53.5 0 3 2006 53.4 0 4 2015 53.3 0 5 1975 52.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 49.9 0 2 2011 49.8 0 3 2006 49.7 0 4 2020 49.3 1 - 1994 49.3 0 - 1975 49.3 0

It has been an ongoing issue for the GEFS. I can’t wait until machine learning brings us bias corrected model guidance maps. Maybe someday we can look at day 11-15 bias corrected maps which will take long range forecasting to the next level. But that will probably require quite a bit more computer power.

The first week of December will start out milder in the Northeast than some of the guidance was indicating a week ago. New run Old run

Walt, great thread as usual. The 12z NAM has 70kt down to 950 mb on Long Island Monday afternoon. The 6z run indicated that this would be a 5 SD LLJ event. The NAM also has an elevated convection sounding which could enhance severe or damaging wind gust potential in excess of 60 mph on Long Island.

NYC still in 1st place for warmest November with a warm finish to the month coming up. Very extensive warmth across the entire CONUS. So the whole country on average is close to a top warmest November. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 53.0 2 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0

2016 to 2018 featured great snowstorms that melted a few days later in many cases. 2014 to 2015 had long lasting snow cover but the storms weren’t as impressive in my area as 2016 to 2018. 2010-2011 was the rarest of them all with great snowstorms and long lasting snow cover. I can still remember the snow mountains from the road crews piled high near the LB Boardwalk into the spring.

I don’t really mind if the snow melts a few days later. Our snowy 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters featured big warm ups following most snowstorms. Kind of like spring in the Rockies. But it isn’t the greatest if you run a ski resort and have to put up with the sloppy conditions.

The cutter and hugger storm tracks can really produce for the areas around the Great Lakes. But all the warmth gets tired during the summer when people go north to cool off. Last several summers you had to go up into Canada to escape the heat.

You usually have to be north of I-80 to cash in on gradient snowfall patterns. EWR to ISP finished last December in the 2-4” range. The one exception was the cold 93-94 gradient. But even that one hit diminishing returns the closer you got to Philly.