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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
  2. bluewave
    Good to see the new parallel GFS v16 seems to have fixed the cold and suppressed bias if the current v15. I hope whatever model replaces the NAM is able to correctly see strong WAA aloft like the current model does. While the HRRR is good with thunderstorms and squall lines, it’s profiles are way too cold for winter storm events like this one. Current version too cold and suppressed New parallel warmer and further north with the precipitation shield
  3. bluewave
    The last few months have been an extreme example of mixed influences. But at least we can say some element of La Niña has shown up. The La Niña front-loaded early winter snowfall period has worked out. Numerous La Ninas in NYC had a 6”+ storm and or monthly snowfall total for December.
  4. bluewave
    3.5” here in SW Suffolk with rimed flakes and sleet at 29.5°.
  5. bluewave
    Yeah, getting some sleet mixing in here now In SW Suffolk at 8:10.
  6. bluewave
    Very close to the GSB at 29.5°.
  7. bluewave
    Heavy snow continuing in SW Suffolk with estimated 1/4 mile visibility.
  8. bluewave
    Looks like the mixing line is near I-78 now.
  9. bluewave
    I got down to around 1/4 mile in that heavy snow band with giant 1 inch flakes.
  10. bluewave
    Heavy Snow sounding crunchy here in SW Suffolk with giant flakes of 1 inch diameter. So some warmer air may be beginning to work in aloft with such large aggregates.
  11. bluewave
    Slower along the Jersey Shore for the time being and faster near the Delaware River.
  12. bluewave
    Heaviest snow of the event so far in SW Suffolk. Estimated visibility 1/4 to 1/2 mile.
  13. bluewave
  14. bluewave
    The plots won’t load. The last time I checked it had high end moderate low end major for Freeport tomorrow morning. The other guidance is slightly lower at moderate. Will probably come down to how quickly the flow turns northerly. If the easterly flow holds on longer, maybe the slightly higher Stevens will verify.
  15. bluewave
    It’s typical for the heaviest snow in these set ups to occur right before it mixes.
  16. bluewave
    Starting to mix in Philly now.
  17. bluewave
    We usually get the heaviest snowfall rates just before it mixes.
  18. bluewave
    Steady light snow here in SW Suffolk with a dusting on the roofs and colder ground surfaces.
  19. bluewave
    Steady light snow has arrived here in SW Suffolk.
  20. bluewave
    The 12NAM has the famous wall of snow sig.
  21. bluewave
    Before I changed the title of the winter thread that I started back in October, it was about the MJO staying in 4-5 for October. I changed the title of the thread for a broader winter discussion. I actually deleted my first post which didn’t look like it may work out in November as not to get hopes up too high. It was about October La Niña forcing and seasonal snowfall. Cases focused near the Maritime Continent 4-5 usually had better snow outcomes than the IO phases back to 2000. I included the last 2 winters due to the strong Niña-like background state focusing the ridge north of Hawaii. But We have seen many Niño-like influences this month like the record NP warmth and the +AAM spike and strongest +PNA for a moderate La Niña in December. The MJO in October seemed to be hinting a better snowfall outcome this winter than the last two. Perhaps, the MJO in October can be a precursor to the amount of blocking in the winter during a La Niña even if many Niño-like features are present. There were so many conflicting features during October and November that it was really tough to know how everything would interact with each other until we got to December. This will be a first for such an extreme November to December AO reversal especially for a La Niña with record warmth in November. October 2020 forcing closer to snowier La Niña composite since 2000 Snowier outcomes Less snowy
  22. bluewave
    Yeah the NAM has a sneaky warm layer right near where the sleet -snow mix line occurs tonight. Pretty good SE LLJ around 800-850 mb. LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1012 22 -2.6 -3.9 91 1.3 -3.1 29 21 269.6 270.1 269.4 277.2 2.82 1 1000 119 -3.8 -4.6 94 0.8 -4.1 31 29 269.3 269.8 269.1 276.6 2.70 2 950 522 -5.8 -6.1 98 0.3 -5.9 47 49 271.3 271.7 270.1 278.2 2.54 3 900 947 -4.2 -4.5 98 0.3 -4.3 75 59 277.2 277.7 274.3 285.6 3.04 4 850 1402 -0.8 -1.2 97 0.5 -1.0 104 53 285.3 286.1 280.0 297.0 4.11 5 800 1888 0.4 -0.2 96 0.6 0.1 130 54 291.5 292.4 283.5 305.2 4.70 6 750 2404 -1.9 -2.1 98 0.2 -2.0 139 43 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.3 4.36 7 700 2951 -4.1 -4.1 100 0.0 -4.1 155 35 298.0 298.7 285.4 310.1 4.04
  23. bluewave
    I would probably rate this Euro forecast as one of the better ones in recent years. Most of the runs had the low tucking in around Cape May. It just looks like the ejection will be more ENE toward the BM instead of due east off Cape May.
  24. bluewave
    Probably 1-2” per hour this evening under the best banding.
  25. bluewave
    Areas further west back toward NYC may have the best shot if the Euro verifies. This is the furthest north the mix gets on the 0z Euro.
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