bluewave

The sample size during the 1991-2020 climate normals period for measurable snow before December is small. But we have done better in seasonal snowfall when the early season measurable snow was in late November. The snowy November 2012 provides an interesting case. While we had the record early November snow, there was a smaller measurable event later that month. So the 12-13 winter did very well on snowfall further east on Long Island with Nemo record snow in February. Late October to mid November measurable snows at Newark and seasonal snowfall Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 25 to Nov 20 Seasonal Snowfall 1 2018-11-20 6.4 22.0 2 2012-11-20 6.2 29.5 Islip 46.9 3 2011-11-20 5.2 8.8 4 2007-11-20 0.4 14.6 5 1997-11-20 0.2 6.9 Late November measurable snow at Newark and seasonal snowfall Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30 Seasonal Snowfall 1 1995-11-30 3.0 78.4 2 2014-11-30 1.4 46.4 3 2002-11-30 0.6 53.1 4 2012-11-30 0.4 29.5 Islip 46.9

It will be interesting to see how long this over the top warm departure pattern lasts in the monthly means. The pattern has been locked in since last winter. Some months like October were ridiculously warmer than average in the Great Lakes and Northeast. The cooler months like last February still had a mirroring of the pattern with the record cold to the south in Texas. Temperature departures since last winter

The extended EPS and GEFS have a blocky look around Thanksgiving and possibly some early season flakes.

Not much of a change on the extended EPS from last week. Cool down for the first week of November with coldest departures remaining to our SW. Then we see a rebound in temperatures for the second week of the month. Nov 1-8 Nov 8-15

Looks like this will be the second latest freeze at POU after 1995 and 1971. They came close last week but only made it down to 34°. Posters wouldn’t mind if even a fraction of that 1995 analog worked out going forward. Frost/Freeze Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1995 - - 11-05 (1995) 32 - 1971 04-24 (1971) 30 11-05 (1971) 30 194 1975 04-22 (1975) 25 10-30 (1975) 31 190 2007 04-21 (2007) 32 10-29 (2007) 27 190 1942 04-14 (1942) 27 10-29 (1942) 32 197 2011 04-22 (2011) 27 10-28 (2011) 28 188 2013 05-14 (2013) 30 10-24 (2013) 31 162 2005 05-13 (2005) 32 10-24 (2005) 31 163

Interior areas could see first freeze this week with the first 30s possible closer to the coast.

Updated for October 2021 10..2021….EWR…..1…..NYC…..6…..LGA….3……..JFK……3….BDR…..3…..ISP….2

Any coastal storm next weekend will come at the time of the highest November tides with the new moon.

The 18z GFS corrected to the 12z EPS mean. 18z GFS 12z GFS

It had numerous big snows too far south like the day before the January 2016 blizzard. Also It had to come NW in the short term with the early February 2021 follow up storm.

Only the 2nd time that Newark made it to 60°every day in October. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60 Missing Count 1971 31 0 2021 31 0 - 2017 30 0 - 1994 30 0 - 1984 30 0 - 1947 30 0

The Euro, CMC, and GFS were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal. The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs means that the issue was corrected.

The GFS still is having those skill drop outs at day 5 and beyond which puts it in last place. The Euro scores increased with upgrade. So the Euro hasn’t missed any storms to suppression since the upgrade. Hopefully, this continues through the winter.

The September and October composite looks much different than 2011 and 1999. Notice how much more of a south based -NAO -AO pattern we had this year. The Northeast Pacific low was displaced south from Alaska closer to the PAC NW with the recent record storms.

One of the warmest Octobers and falls so far from the mid-Atlantic to New England. October Fall so far

Seasonal NAO and AO forecasts from the fall are notoriously difficult or the models to get right. It’s usually the weekly models that pick up on the blocking potential first. We saw this last year with the weeklies showing more and more blocking the further into November that we got. Last year was literally a one of a kind type event. We never had and El Niño 500 mb pattern with such a strong La Niña before. So the near record SPV and +NAO last November was something that we see in an El Niño year like 2015-2016. But the SPV made a dramatic reversal just as we moved into December. This November the SPV is much weaker with the near record low recently. So a much different state of the SPV. That’s probably why the weekly models continue the -NAO -AO pattern and indicate the potential for another weakening later in November. But as always, it’s a wait and see since these forecasts can change at a later time. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2021_MERRA2_NH.html Much weaker SPV November 2021 than 2020

The bouy south of the Rockaways is gusting to 50 mph. So the Shore Shore of NYC and Long Island could gust 50-60 mph next several hours. The wind gusts along the Jersey Shore are confirming the higher gusts that the 18z hi res NAM was showing.

Coastal Delaware gusting to 55 mph.

Even if the Euro is over amped for next weekend, I am hoping the suppression bias with East Coast storms was fixed with the big upgrade. Example of suppression from last winter

The JMA joined the EPS for more of a -NAO -AO in the second half of November. Looks related to the weaker SPV. These La Niña -AO -NAO Novembers usually continue into the winter with -AO and -NAO blocking intervals.

With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area. Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded 20-21….36.1 17-18….36.2 16-17….39.3 15-16….41.0 14-15…31.4 13-14…32.9 12-13…36.8 10-11….32.8 09-10…33.8 08-09…34.2 05-06…37.3 04-05…35.4 03-04…32.4 02-03…31.2 00-01….33.5 95-96…32.2 93-94…31.2 86-87….34.8 77-78….30.8 68-69….32.9 66-67….34.1 63-64…33.2 60-61….31.7 57-58…33.2 55-56…32.8 Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together.

The Jersey Shore could see 60 mph gusts with 50 mph along the Long Island South Shore.

First storm on the NAM is this evening and the second Saturday afternoon into the evening.

In our new era of extreme precipitation, it has become more common for our stations to exceed 60 inches in a year. Data for January 1, 2021 through October 29, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 60.55 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 56.20 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 56.01 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 55.83 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 55.42 Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 67.73 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 66.59 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 66.54 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 66.07 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 65.63 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 65.56 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 65.28 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 65.01 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 64.74 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 64.08 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 63.78 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 63.46 CT MADISON CENTER 4.1 N CoCoRaHS 63.21 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 63.15 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 63.03 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 63.02 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.99 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.81 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 62.76 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.75 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 62.45 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 62.41 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 62.21 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 62.18 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 61.81 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 61.63 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 61.33 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 61.24 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 61.19 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 61.05 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 60.94 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 60.75 CT DARIEN 2.8 NW CoCoRaHS 60.55 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 60.42 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 60.33 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 60.27 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 60.22 NY PLAINEDGE 0.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 60.06 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 80.78 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 75.84 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 74.45 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 74.13 CT MONROE 0.1 SE CoCoRaHS 74.05 CT MADISON CENTER 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 73.82 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 73.62 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 73.58 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 73.44 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 73.05 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 71.98 CT RIDGEFIELD 1.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 71.57 NJ HAWTHORNE 0.4 S CoCoRaHS 70.94 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 70.71 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 70.59 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 70.17 Data for January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 3.2 NE CoCoRaHS 90.65 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 86.48 NY MONROE 1.7 SE CoCoRaHS 84.34 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 82.73 NY WEST POINT COOP 80.37 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 80.29 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 80.03 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 62.78 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 60.15