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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    Even areas south of Sunrise Highway should pick up at least 3-6” before any mixing tonight.
  2. bluewave
    The whole pattern is mismatched. Record early month +PNA spike for moderate La Niña. Sudden appearance of blocking over the North Pole in the short term. +AAM and record warm +PMM NP SSTs with a moderate La Niña. Record Arctic warmth and low sea ice. So this storm looks like a microcosm of all the competing influences. The old analogs just don’t work for this new climate.
  3. bluewave
    This generally looks like a 3 part storm. Front end thump snow burst followed by WAA aloft and mixing near the coast . Part 3 is always most uncertain since snow bands with ULs aren’t forecast very well too far in advance. You want the low to close off in the right spot so you get under the snow bands. But it takes work to prime the atmosphere for more snow following WAA aloft. That’s why there aren’t many examples of impressive back end snows following mixing.
  4. bluewave
    There aren’t many examples of Miller B cold winter storms tracking over Southern NJ in December. The only one that comes to mind during another winter month Valentine’s Day in 2007. But that had features that were different from this one. We usually see Miller B primaries weaken to our west before a new center pops SE of ACY.
  5. bluewave
    This storm looks like it will be a version of the 94 ABE-ACY gradient. Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 75.2 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 7.8 0
  6. bluewave
    The GFS V15 is getting replaced by the v16 next year due to the cold bias. It will be the least reliable piece of guidance for this event. https://dtcenter.org/sites/default/files/events/2020/1-fanglin-yang.pdf Outstanding Issues • PBL inversion • Cold bias in the lower troposphere in winter • Surface temperature biases
  7. bluewave
    They already know about the cold bias on the v15. So it probably isn’t the forecast tool to use in this situation. They appear to have fixed the cold bias on the V16 which is scheduled to go operational later in the winter. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/
  8. bluewave
    This will be our first storm to test out the new dynamic ratio. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/Snowfall.pdf
  9. bluewave
    So will there be a new meso model related to the FV3 that replaces the NAM? The only thing that I can tell about the GFS v16 is that the cold bias appears to have been corrected.
  10. bluewave
    These are the highest astronomical tides of the month with the new moon. So E to NE wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range will really pile up the water for early Thursday. It will probably look like icebergs in Freeport as the snowpack begins to float on the surge. Had this happen several times in Long Beach.
  11. bluewave
    This will be the first winter storm for the big HRRR upgrade a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if further development down the line replaces the NAM. Heard a while back that the NAM may be discontinued next few years https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-46rapv5_hrrr_v4aab.pdf
  12. bluewave
    The usual flood prone spots like Freeport could approach low end major flooding. Especially if the low tucks in and slowly crawls east early Thursday. Also looks like coastal sections may approach HWW criteria. http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/
  13. bluewave
    The Euro came a little north from this time yesterday. Gets the mix line closer to -I-78 in NJ and the LIE on LI.
  14. bluewave
    The models did fine when you account for their northward correction short term with amped systems. I pointed this out over the weekend. That’s the reason you never want to be in the jackpot zone 5 days out. Model snowfall forecasts and exact location of the mixing line are seldom accurate beyond 24-48 hours. That’s why I am not a fan of posting all these longer range snowfall maps on social media.
  15. bluewave
    I think the last time we really had to worry about confluence here was 2-6-10. But that was a -5 AO vs -3 now. Most of the time for us the correction is more N and W with amped systems. That’s why some of our best snowstorms on record were modeled 3-5 days out to crush Philly or DC. But then corrected north in the short term. So a day 5 forecast with the mixing just to our south usually shifts further north in the short term. So now it looks like mixing will be an issue near the coast following the initial front end thump.
  16. bluewave
    It looks like one of the features on the v16 is a fix for the cold bias. Do you know if it’s still scheduled to go operational in February? https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
  17. bluewave
    The models are more tucked in with the low than just a few days ago. The ridge east of New England is a little stronger. This has been a recent theme. So the trough goes neg tilt quicker allowing mixing issues to arise after the initial front end thump. New run Old run
  18. bluewave
    This could be the first time that the AO was positive for nearly every day in November and negative for so many days in December.
  19. bluewave
    It’s probably just the suppression bias in the v15. We can only hope that v16 has fixed this issue.
  20. bluewave
    We haven’t had coastal systems in so long, that the EE rule has been in hibernation.
  21. bluewave
    That H500 closing off that the NAM has near 84 hrs would be an insurance policy against the high over New England suppressing this to the south.
  22. bluewave
    I once spoke to someone that was asking me about online weather forums. They asked me why the people on there keep hoping that somebody would get crushed by a storm.
  23. bluewave
    I wish they could all be this easy. But I think this was the last real long range snowstorm grad slam hit by a member ECMWF family of products.
  24. bluewave
    The UKMET can also be pretty erratic from storm to storm and run to run. It’s usually a rear view mirror assessment on which model did the best with each individual storm. I am going to wait until the UL gets fully sampled tonight over Oregon. Day 3-4 snowfall forecasts have always been a challenge since so many important things usually happen in under 48 or 36 hours. The general public doesn’t mind if you forecast 1.00” of rain and .50 verifies. But you would probably hear about it if it was snow especially on this forum.
  25. bluewave
    I posted the GFS cold bias earlier in this thread. The model loves to push the baroclinic zone too far S and E. So the storms end up too suppressed.
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