bluewave

This happens when the forecast light winds go calm instead. So The 12z MOS had a low of 35° at ISP with light winds. But the calm winds resulted in a low of 32°. KISP GFS MOS GUIDANCE 11/16/2020 1200 UTC DT /NOV 16/NOV 17 /NOV 18 /NOV 19 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 35 50 27 42 27 TMP 53 51 46 43 39 37 38 45 48 46 40 36 32 29 29 36 40 39 34 31 33 DPT 27 27 28 29 27 26 27 28 26 25 23 21 18 16 15 15 14 13 14 16 22 CLD FW FW FW FW CL SC BK OV OV BK BK FW FW CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW WDR 27 27 27 27 29 28 27 27 28 31 32 31 32 31 32 32 32 32 33 32 24 WSP 17 15 09 09 09 07 06 11 11 13 13 14 12 11 13 17 17 14 08 02 04

Similar stats for NYC with December featuring the biggest winter temperature jump in NYC since 2010. NYC has averaged at 40.7° in December since 2011. This is +3.2° over the 1981-2010 means. The only Decembers since 2011 that averaged under 40° had a November in the 40s like we saw last year. But this hasn’t been a guarantee as several cooler Novembers like 2018, 2014, and 2012 warmed back above 40° in December. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Mean 47.1 40.7 2019 43.9 38.3 2018 44.4 40.1 2017 46.6 35.0 2016 49.8 38.3 2015 52.8 50.8 2014 45.3 40.5 2013 45.3 38.5 2012 43.9 41.5 2011 51.9 43.3

I usually don’t pay that much attention to the weeklies past the first week or two. But they match up with past Novembers that averaged 50° or warmer in NYC. 7 out of 9 years since 1990 had a near 40°or warmer December. Most years were El Niño or neutral. But 2011 and 1999 were La Niña years. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec 2020 56.3 M 2015 52.8 50.8 2001 52.7 44.1 2011 51.9 43.3 2006 51.9 43.6 1994 51.9 42.2 2009 51.1 35.9 1999 50.8 39.9 1990 50.3 42.6 2003 50.0 37.6

2020 reversed the cold November and March patterns that we got used to in recent years. A warm finish to November will increase the chances for NYC going top 10 warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 56.3 15 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0

The first time the area had 3 tornado warnings in November . 2018 was the first year with 3 tornado warnings in October.

Brief cool down coming up before the temperatures rebound back to 60+ by the weekend. The SE Ridge keeps finding a way to beat expectations. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/16/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23 CLIMO X/N 54| 39 49| 30 42| 31 51| 43 58| 50 61| 52 63| 53 61 37 51 New run for next weekend Old run

83 mph gust showing up on North Shore. Matinecock Pt N/A 55 N/A N/A W46G83

Brooklyn mesonet gusting to 70 mph. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=bkln Gusting to 70 mph

Newark gusting to 60 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KEWR

60 mph gust in Norwalk, CT. Norwalk Harbor N/A 63 N/A N/A S45G60

BDR a little higher at 55 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KBDR

LGA gusting to 52 mph. LaGuardia Arpt LGT RAIN 63 56 78 S31G52

South Shore of Long Island gusting to 50 mph. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=GMT

That’s a great estimate. RDG just gusted to 51 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KRDG

Harrisburg gusting to 56 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KMDT

Pretty impressive for November.

NYC needs to hold a +2.3 departure to finish with the first 50° November since 2015 and 2011. This year deviated a bit from recent years with the March and November warmth. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 56.6 16 2019 43.9 0 2018 44.4 0 2017 46.6 0 2016 49.8 0 2015 52.8 0 2014 45.3 0 2013 45.3 0 2012 43.9 0 2011 51.9 0 2010 47.9 0

Looks like a good idea if the squall line verifies as strong as the models are showing. Possible 1630Z upgrade... Full outlook update expected by 1630Z with consideration of a Slight Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast with convection rapidly progressing across this region during the evening to early tonight.

That’s the forecast for synoptic wind gusts. Stronger convective gusts with the squall line will be covered with short fused SPS or severe thunderstorm warnings if necessary. Have left the Wind Advisory in place as it was, for portions of eastern New Jersey and the Delaware Beaches. In those areas, synoptic mixing late this afternoon and especially this evening should yield some 40-45mph gusts, though am a little doubtful we will see advisory level synoptic winds. However, those areas also stand the best chance of higher gusts associated with the convective line in the later evening. Further west, synoptic winds should remain below advisory levels, however shorter fused wind threats associated with the convective line may need to be covered by SPS or SVR products depending on how it evolves. Bottom line, regardless of the mechanism most areas stand a chance for a period of strong to locally damaging winds, mainly during the evening hours.

Yeah, the 6z NAM has a 4 to 5 SD 925 mb jet near the coast.

The fast Pacific flow will result in a day 6-10 warm up following the day 1-5 cool down. So the CONUS will finish with a much warmer November than the last few years. I posted the warmest rankings for the CONUS since 2010. Many areas just had a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of November. NYC finished the first 2 weeks at 4th warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1975-11-14 58.9 0 2 1938-11-14 57.6 0 3 2015-11-14 57.1 0 4 2020-11-14 56.6 0 - 1974-11-14 56.6 0 - 1935-11-14 56.6 0 CONUS warmest to coolest temperatures since 2011 201611 47.97°F 10 6.28°F 201711 45.03°F 9 3.34°F 201511 44.60°F 8 2.91°F 201211 44.01°F 7 2.32°F 201111 43.75°F 6 2.06°F 201011 42.31°F 5 0.62°F 201311 41.61°F 4 -0.08°F 201911 41.11°F 3 -0.58°F 201811 40.01°F 2 -1.68°F 201411 39.25°F 1 -2.44°F

It may be tough for Long Island to challenge the 9 year run averaging close to 50”. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.5 6.5 18.2 13.9 8.6 0.6 48.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9

Yeah, 93-94 and 95-96 were our only high snowfall seasons from 79-80 to 99-00. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 12.8 0 1981-04-30 19.4 0 1982-04-30 24.6 0 1983-04-30 27.2 0 1984-04-30 25.4 0 1985-04-30 24.1 0 1986-04-30 13.0 1 1987-04-30 23.1 0 1988-04-30 19.1 0 1989-04-30 8.1 0 1990-04-30 13.4 0 1991-04-30 24.9 0 1992-04-30 12.6 0 1993-04-30 24.5 0 1994-04-30 53.4 0 1995-04-30 11.8 0 1996-04-30 75.6 0 1997-04-30 10.0 0 1998-04-30 5.5 0 1999-04-30 12.7 0 2000-04-30 16.3 0