bluewave

The ski resorts could have used this pattern on Christmas when it poured.

I believe this is the first time since 82-83 that Newark had a cooler Memorial Day weekend high temperature than Christmas. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1982-12-25 68 40 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1983-05-28 68 48 1983-05-29 63 57 1983-05-30 71 61 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2020-12-25 62 28 High so far of 51°

These big weather swings have become the new normal.

Newark is on track to beat the record low max of 60° today. Newark has never had a record low max during the last week of May with a 96° monthly high temperature. This exceeds the 1953 May maximum temperature of 91° by 5°. All the other years had 0-1 days reach 90° in May vs 4 days this year. Newark Area, NJ Version: 16.1 (created 2021-05-25) Period of record: 1931 through 2020DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 5/25 48 in 1967 54 in 2005 54 in 1934 5/26 57 in 1967 58 in 2003 58 in 1934 5/27 49 in 1961 59 in 1973 60 in 1974 5/28 57 in 1968 58 in 1950 61 in 1996+ 5/29 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 61 in 2017+ 5/30 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 64 in 2000+ 5/31 61 in 1953 63 in 1992 63 in 1984 May maximum temperatures 1967…..82 1961…..86 1968….79 1950….83 1953…..91 2021…..96

Western to Central Suffolk jackpot zone so far. 5/29/2021 6:00 AM NY-SF-84 Centereach 1.3 NE 2.32 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 6:11 AM NY-SF-85 Patchogue 0.9 SE 2.11 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 6:35 AM NY-SF-142 Setauket-East Setauket 1.0 S 2.03 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 7:00 AM NY-SF-34 Bay Shore 0.5 ESE 2.41 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 8:00 AM NY-SF-148 Mattituck 1.6 SSE 2.20 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 8:25 AM NY-SF-77 Nesconset 1.4 SSW 2.15 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk Active | Static 5/29/2021 8:30 AM NY-SF-100 Port Jefferson Station 0.3 SSW 2.32 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk

The 2.37 so far at ISP is 3rd the heaviest rainstorm for the last week of May. So with the rainfall in the forecast, Long Island is in track for the heaviest last week of May rainfall since 1984. I will also update the May monthly rainfall records as the rainfall totals increase. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off 29 May 7:56 am 48 45 89 NE 18G35 10.00 BKN014,OVC018 29.81 1013.2 29.92 T 0.55 2.37 Maximum 4-Day Total Precipitation for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 5.27 1984-05-31 0 0 2 2.90 2003-05-29 0 3 2.37 2021-05-29 0

This was one of the greatest May temperature drops in a week on record. While the site below uses hourly readings, JFK is 46° cooler than the record high of 94° last Saturday. So our record weather swings pattern continues. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&hours=159&month=may&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The wetter extremes have been winning out since the 1960s. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/4/jcli-d-11-00723.1.xml 4. Discussion The new reconstruction of drought for the NYC watershed highlights two important aspects of regional hydroclimatic history. First, while the 1960s drought is still among the most intense droughts over the last 500 years, it interrupts a multicentennial trend of increasing moisture availability that has continued through 2011. Second, the new record gives greater insight regarding the spatial extent and severity of the megadroughts during the 1500s and provides greater temporal and spatial insight into droughts during the 1600s. Two other important outcomes of this work are that 1) an improved depiction of historical droughts and the long-term trend of increasing moisture availability should be useful for understanding the complex climate dynamics in the eastern United States and 2) the reconstruction’s strength appears to be partly derived from high tree species replication. We will detail the implications of the regional hydroclimatic history, methodological aspects of the tree-ring based NYC watershed reconstruction, and its potential societal impacts in the following sections. a. Multicentennial trend toward pluvial conditions One of the most prominent trends in the NYC watershed reconstruction is the general trend toward pluvial conditions since ca. 1800. The magnitude of drought events after the 1827 pluvial is less than in prior centuries and becomes nearly nil after the 1960s drought (Fig. 4a). Perhaps as striking is the trend of reduced drought intensity since the late eighteenth century (Fig. 4b). The trend of increasing pluvial conditions is not limited to the NYC watershed region either; instead, it appears to be a local expression of a broader hydroclimatic change across the eastern United States (Fig. 6). Independent analyses have indicated wetter conditions since the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in three separate regions (Stahle et al. 1988; Stahle and Cleaveland 1992, 1994; E. R. Cook et al. 2010; McEwan et al. 2011). Here we show that the recent trend of increased wetness in the NYC watershed generally matches five regionally-distinct, tree-ring records of paleodrought drawn from the NADA. Much of the eastern United States has been unusually and somewhat persistently wet since the late 1800s. Almost all of these records indicate more pluvial conditions since the late 1950s. The only event that stands out from this large-scale pattern of change is the unusually severe 1960s drought. Since that event, our reconstruction indicates that this region of the northeastern United States has been experiencing the strongest pluvial conditions in the eastern United States. Five records of hydroclimate variability across the eastern United States. The new NYC drought reconstruction now provides evidence that the sixteenth century megadrought (Stahle et al. 2000) extended up into the northeastern United States and that the trend toward more pluvial conditions is present in five independent records across much of the eastern United States. Each line is a 20-yr spline of the each annual record. The dashed line is the mean of each record’s mean. Citation: Journal of Climate 26, 4; 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1 The instrumental record further supports our finding that recent pluvial events in the NYC region are at the upper limit of hydroclimatic variability for the last 500 years. Even though the 2006–09 pluvial is virtually unrivaled, 2011 goes beyond the 2006–09 event: the 2011 May–August average PDSI value is 3.72, including a value of 5.64 for August. The August 2011 PDSI value is the highest instrumental calculation for any month since 1895. Further, the only monthly PDSI values in the instrumental record greater than 5.0 occur after 2003 (n = 4). And, of the 20 highest monthly PDSI instrumental values, only one occurred prior to 1975 (a value of 4.48 in October 1955)—70% of the 20 wettest months occur after 2000. Both paleo- and instrumental records point out that the recent decade of pluvial conditions is at the upper end of hydroclimatic variability over the last 100 and 500 years (Figs. 1 and 5), which likely accounts for the lack of water emergencies since 2002. Taken at face value, all these data suggest the long-term trend in pluvial conditions is unusual over the last 500 years.

It’s too difficult to sustain dry conditions for an extended period in our new wetter climate. We just got upgraded to D0 dry conditions yesterday. So it didn’t take long for the heavy rains to come after that update. Hard to believe the last time NYC had water restrictions was back in 2001-2002.

Wind direction is everything in the NY Bight. This is especially true when our biggest airports are right on the water. The 22nd was an extremely dry offshore flow heat event. So both EWR and JFK were located in the warmest zones. Also notice how the NW flow off the East River kept LGA cooler than both the Astoria and Corona new micronet stations. The ASOS at LGA is in the extreme NW corner of the airport near the water. The JFK ASOS is located in a marshy area in the eastern edge of the airport. Not far from North Woodmere in the five towns section of Long Island. Since the sea breeze was so strong yesterday east of NYC, EWR and the new fresh kills station were the warmest in the region. All the Newark Bay Breeze days last few summers allowed LGA to beat EWR on numerous occasions. 5-26 maximum temperatures EWR…..94 Fresh Kills….92 Astoria……….87 Corona………86 LGA….86 Brownsville…..81 South Ozone Park…79 JFK…75 5-22 EWR…..96 JFK…….94 Brownsville….94 South Ozone Park….93 Corona……..92 Astoria……..91 Fresh Kills….91 LGA…..88

Since Memorial Day moved to the last Monday in May in 1971, the closest Newark came was 2003. It had a high in the 50s on Saturday and Monday. The high made it to 61 on Sunday. So two out of the three extended weekend days maxed out in the 50s. But the high for May 2003 at Newark only made it to 81 with a -4.4 monthly cold departure. This is much different from the high of 96 this May and +2.6 so far. So a continuation of the big weather swings that have become common in recent years. Newark Sat…..5-24-03….58/52 Sun….5-25-03…..61/53 Mon..5-26-03…..58/51

The Euro has a first for this weekend. Newark has never had two days in May with a high in the 50s following a 96° or higher reading. So a continuation of our weather extremes pattern which has become prominent since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Following Lowest Max 1 1996 99 61 2 1992 98 63 - 1987 98 96 - 1962 98 67 3 1965 97 69 4 2021 96 ? - 2016 96 83 - 1969 96 85 - 1964 96 68

Wantagh gusting to 39 mph. From W at 22 mph Gusting to 39 mph

Hail showing up on radar in Oceanside and Rockville Centre.

Newark taking the lead on the early season heat since the weekend. High of 94 after reaching 96 on Saturday. Last few years it was usually LGA in the lead for these warm ups. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 433 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 26 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 94 259 PM 96 1965 75 19 77 MINIMUM 66 500 AM 44 1967 57 9 58 AVERAGE 80 66 14 68

Yeah, filtered sunshine through the marine layer here in SW Suffolk.

I wonder if Newark ever had a Memorial Day weekend when one of the daily high temperatures was colder than Christmas? Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0 1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0 2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0 2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0

The NAM didn’t get the memo that this is supposed to be the Memorial Day weekend.

Clearing out at Newark now. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 77 65 66 SW12 30.05F

This May ranks up there for extreme temperature volatility. Cool start to the month followed by record warmth last weekend. More 90s away from the ocean today followed by an unusually cool Memorial Day weekend. So a continuation of the extreme wavelength swings following the record AO reversal back in February.

Yeah, it looks like our best rainfall potential in a while. Models now have high temperatures struggling to get much above 60°on Saturday with a chilly NE flow. Very unusual for highs in the mid or upper 90s around May 20th to fall to near 60 at the end of May. It only has happened in 2017 and 1996 at Newark. 2017-05-17 92 59 2017-05-18 94 74 2017-05-19 93 66 2017-05-20 66 53 2017-05-21 66 51 2017-05-22 60 55 2017-05-23 70 56 2017-05-24 70 57 2017-05-25 59 56 2017-05-26 76 55 2017-05-27 74 58 2017-05-28 71 58 2017-05-29 61 57 2017-05-30 59 55 2017-05-31 80 58 1996-05-19 93 54 1996-05-20 99 72 1996-05-21 96 70 1996-05-22 82 63 1996-05-23 84 57 1996-05-24 80 59 1996-05-25 76 53 1996-05-26 66 56 1996-05-27 64 52 1996-05-28 61 55 1996-05-29 64 55 1996-05-30 70 50 1996-05-31 80 49

The Euro and CMC have the bulk of the rain Friday into Friday night. Maybe a few lingering showers into Saturday. But a cool NE flow looks likely into the afternoon. So Saturday may feature highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s around NYC depending on cloud cover. This would put it near the coolest maxes that we have seen this late in the season since 2015. It could be in excess of 30° colder than the mid 90s last Saturday. Newark low maxes recent years bolded 5/29 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 61 in 2017+ 5/30 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 64 in 2000+ 5/31 61 in 1953 63 in 1992 63 in 1984 6/1 58 in 1945 61 in 2015 63 in 1964 6/2 54 in 1946 57 in 2015 60 in 1945+ 6/3 53 in 1945 62 in 1996 63 in 1997 6/4 53 in 1945 58 in 2003 60 in 1941 6/5 58 in 1945 60 in 1941 61 in 2009 6/6 60 in 2017 61 in 2004 61 in 2000+

That site is part of the original mesonet that was installed several years back. It’s located at 311 feet so it’s one of the coolest NYC sites on hot days.Temperatures can fall off pretty quickly above the standard 2m height. That’s why I am not a fan of rooftop temperatures. A ground station like Wantagh today is 1.5° cooler at 9m than 2m. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather#network=nysm&stid=manh Elevation: 311 feet

The new ground level stations look interesting. Not a big fan of the rooftop station temperatures. I posted the high temperature summary from Saturday. http://nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Ten sites are located at ground level, eleven sites are deployed on roof tops, and one site is located on a pier. A majority of Micronet stations measure air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and pressure. A mix of stations also measure wind speed and direction, solar radiation, snow depth, soil temperature and moisture, surface (skin) temperature, and water temperature. Micronet data are collected every 5 minutes, quality controlled, archived and made available to users in real-time. The 17 Con Edison sites and 5 NYS Mesonet sites located in NYC are shown in the data display below. Station Max Min Avg Max Min Max Min Liquid Peak Gust Peak 5m Avg Integrated 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 93 67 80 93 67 66 28 0.00 13 4:10pm 4 2:20pm 17.0 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 91 61 77 91 61 87 29 0.00 28th St. / Chelsea 90 66 79 90 66 73 29 0.00 19 2:40pm 6 2:40pm 15.3 Astoria 91 64 78 91 64 77 29 0.00 17 4:40pm 9 2:05pm 17.7 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 92 65 79 92 65 73 28 0.00 15.7 Bronx Mesonet 88 64 77 88 64 73 34 0.00 23 3:00pm 13 3:00pm 19.8 Brooklyn Mesonet 88 63 77 88 63 74 31 0.00 28 2:40pm 18 2:40pm 18.3 Brownsville 94 64 79 94 64 76 26 0.00 Corona 92 65 79 92 65 73 27 0.00 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 90 67 79 90 67 64 30 0.00 Fresh Kills 91 64 79 91 64 66 30 0.00 20 6:00pm 11 5:40pm Glendale / Maspeth 90 64 79 90 64 75 29 0.00 Gold Street / Navy Yard 90 68 80 90 68 60 29 0.00 22 3:00pm 12 3:00pm 18.2 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 93 62 78 93 62 83 28 0.00 Manhattan Mesonet 87 70 80 87 70 60 32 0.00 30 2:35pm 17 2:30pm 15.7 Newtown / Long Island City 90 66 79 90 66 66 27 0.00 18 5:15pm 7 2:40pm 16.9 Queens Mesonet 88 63 77 88 63 76 32 0.00 23 3:00pm 15 4:50pm 18.0 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 91 67 80 91 67 68 27 0.00 15.2 Staten Island Mesonet 89 65 78 89 65 63 32 0.00 28 6:00pm 16 2:45pm 18.1 TLC Center 89 66 78 89 66 67 30 0.00 19 3:05pm 8 2:40pm 17.8 Tremont / Van Nest 93 64 79 93 64 75 28 0.00 16 2:25pm 5 3:05pm 17.7