bluewave

The NWS did an extensive post about the leaf burn on the south sides of the trees following Isaias. We at the office have noticed an interesting phenomenon in the wake of Tropical Storm Isaias here on Long Island... A lot of the south side of exposed vegetation is withering while the north side of the same vegetation seems fine. This picture is taken by one of our meteorologists on the south shore of Long Island today (August 15th, 2020), about 11 days after Tropical Storm Isaias swept through the area. The picture is taken looking to the north. You can very clearly see that much of the south side of the vegetation looks as if it has progressed into late autumn with much of it turning brown. However, the north side of the trees and the bushes are still green! How and why is this happening?? We believe that the cause of this weird occurrence has to do with the blowing of ocean spray (and thus sea salt) onto the south side of exposed vegetation by strong winds. Tropical Storm Isaias had strong winds associated with it on Long Island, but not much rainfall. Strong southerly winds (with gusts up to and exceeding 70 mph) off of the ocean picked up sea salt off the ocean surface and battered the south sides of just about everything. With little to no rain to wash the salt off of trees and bushes in the wake of these strong winds, the south sides of the vegetation that experienced the brunt of the winds (and thus most exposure to the sea salt) seems to have begun to wither and wilt. Additionally, much of Long Island is currently in a moderate drought with Islip, NY (KISP) a little more than 6" of precipitation below average for the calendar year so far. This may at least partially enhance these withering effects. There is anecdotal evidence of this phenomenon occurring from tropical events in the past, like Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the "Long Island Express" Hurricane in 1938, though both of these prior events occurred later in the year than Tropical Storm Isaias. With all that being said, have you noticed this weird occurrence in your area? We at the office would be very interested to hear (and see) from you if you've noticed this happening near you!

The Euro has been too suppressed at times with the northern edge of precipitation with tracks near the benchmark in recent years. ECMWF did a good write-up on the January 2016 historic blizzard. Maybe the model upgrades did something in the 2014-2015 time frame? I can remember it doing very well with the February 2013 Nemo blizzard from 5 days out. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/201601+-+Snowstorm+-+US+east+coast 5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event Early signal (from Sunday 17 Jan 00z) and very consistent forecasts Too low accumulation over NYC Question about snow density for the case

I believe the last time NYC had water restrictions was way back in 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the one in the 1960s. A study of tree rings found that the 1960s drought may have been our most severe in 400 to 500 years. As your great recent storm threads have highlighted, we have shifted into a much wetter regime here. https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

They won’t be able to narrow down the range until the ATOMIC study is completed. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/some-new-climate-models-are-projecting-extreme-warming-are-they-correct/ The research that originally motivated this project was an analysis that showed that the single biggest factor that separated the CMIP models into big warming and not so big warming was treatment of shallow convective clouds,” Fairall explains. The best places to find shallow convective clouds are tropical waters. So in February, a group of scientists from more than 40 partner institutions from countries including the U.S., Germany, France, and the U.K. painstakingly probed hundreds of miles of tropical air and sea near the island of Barbados. They used every tool in their arsenals: five research aircraft, four large fact-finding vessels, buoys, radar and futuristic air and ocean drones to examine the makeup of these complicated and crucial clouds. Scientists expect that the vast, concurrent and diverse types of observations captured in ATOMIC will allow them to improve how clouds are represented in climate models, enabling them to make more precise predictions of future climate and impacts. Fairall says the data from ATOMIC is ideal for such assessments, and he expects the findings will inform the upcoming 2021 comprehensive IPCC report. With the data from ATOMIC still being analyzed, scientists have not yet reached conclusions. On the whole, however, these unprecedented research efforts to troubleshoot discrepancies in the latest models have already borne critical fruit. They are providing scientists with more insights, illustrating the crucial value of the scientific method, lending credibility to the capability of climate models, and helping build more confidence within the climate science community.

All the high pressure over New England has kept the heaviest rains further to the west. Time Series Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Aug 13 Missing Count 2020-08-13 4.35 3 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Aug 13 Missing Count 2020-08-13 16.30 0

Just enough of the WAR has been holding on to keep the coolest temperatures to our west. I can also remember when NYC would regularly drop into the 50s at some point behind a cold front in August. Now we just have to settle for lows in the 60s and highs below 90 for our less warm August periods. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2020 66 18 2019 61 0 2018 65 0 2017 60 0 2016 61 0 2015 63 0 2014 61 0 2013 59 0

It started on 6-28. MPO beat the previous warmest low temperature record for the period by 5 degrees. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jun 28 to Aug 12 Missing Count 1 2020-08-12 55 0 2 2019-08-12 50 0 - 2008-08-12 50 0 - 1955-08-12 50 2

Looks like MPO may finally end their record 55 or warmer minimum temperature streak. LGA could also break their 70° minimum streak. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1901-09-12 to 2020-08-12 1 46 2020-08-12 2 32 1938-08-18 - 32 1919-06-27 4 31 2013-07-23 5 24 2004-08-04 - 24 1947-08-31 7 23 1917-08-03 - 23 1916-07-28 9 22 2018-08-22 - 22 2009-08-30 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2020-08-12 1 41 2020-08-12 2 34 2006-08-10 3 32 1980-08-15 4 29 2018-08-19 5 28 2010-07-30 6 24 1999-08-08 - 24 1995-08-05 8 23 1988-08-18 9 22 2016-08-02 - 22 2012-07-19

Less warm will be the new cool for us as the heat ridge shifts out to the Western US.

xmACIS2 https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org xmACIS2 Single-Station Multi-Station Select a product from the menus above. Options selection Station selection Go

Looks like the ASOS is on a grassy patch just SSE of the Home Depot garden center. You can just make it out on the bottom right portion of this satellite photo.

We are seeing something different this summer between FRG and ISP. Airport plaza shopping center opened around 2000. So that area around the airport has been built out for about 20 years now. You can see how ISP and FRG temperatures have been very close during July since 2010. They have traded places being warmer than the other site. But this is the first time that FRG was so much warmer than ISP. So perhaps it has something to do with the prevailing wind direction, record high dew points, and record SSTs . Other than that, I am not sure what could cause such a big disparity between the two sites. July......FRG....ISP 2020....80.6....77.7 2019....77.5....78.1 2018....75.8....75.5 2017....75.0....75.0 2016....77.3....76.8 2015....76.8....75.8 2014....73.7....75.2 2013...78.1.....78.0 2012....76.4.....76.2 2011.....78.0....77.6 2010.....79.7.....78.0

Quick SST rebound back to 80° about 75 NM east of NJ. NY Harb Entrance 1950 74 200/ 6/ 8 1016.2 1/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1950 76 230/ 4/ 4 1016.3 2/ 4 Great South Bay 1930 77 170/ 10/ 10 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1950 76 220/ 4/ 4 1016.9 2/ 4 15 E Barnegat Li 1926 75 N/A 2/11 Hudson Canyon 1950 80 1017.4 2/10

One farmer is hoping that his insurance will cover a portion of the losses. I have a ton of respect for anyone that can make a go of such a large agricultural business. I have seen how much of a challenge even a home garden on a few acres of land can be. Many new starts ups are attempting to do indoor vertical farming with varying degrees of success. https://www.kcci.com/article/derecho-damage-to-iowa-crops/33577652 https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/8/16611710/vertical-farms

Very challenging time to be a farmer with one extreme event after another. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2019/06/04/after-biblical-spring-this-is-week-that-could-break-corn-belt/?arc404=true

Looks like a station just to your south picked up 2.34. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYMANHA21/table/2020-08-12/2020-08-12/daily

Radar estimates of 2-3 inches of rain across Central Nassau.

The storm caused leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves.

August 8th to 20th has been our most active time of the year for 3.00” or greater rainfalls since 2011. The historic 1000 year event happened at ISP during this period in 2014. So the models indicating varying degrees of heavy rain potential during this period may be correct. The historic Sparta flood also occurred during this same time of the year back in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314 https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/ https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2001/0104/report.pdf 3.00” or greater events since 2011 2019 8-8....Livingston TWP, NJ...3.21 2018 8-11 to 8-13 NWS Upton........6.60 8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73 2017 8-18......East Shoreham....3.80 2016 8-20.....Calverton.....3.85 2014 8-13.....JFK...3.26....ISP....13.51 2011 8-15...EWR...6.56...NYC...6.37...LGA...6.64...JFK....7.80...BDR....3.17....ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20

The EPS has a break in the 90° heat for a while after tomorrow. Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. The actual rainfall will probably be determined in the short term by where the weak fronts set up.

Another day with clouds and onshore flow allowing the warmest temperatures to go north of our area.

The marine layer is holding on near the coast.

The warm minimum temperatures continue to be the big story as Don pointed out above. Our interior areas have had the most 65° or warmer low temperatures by August 10th. Areas closer the coast have had near their highest number of 70°minimums to date. Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 37 1 2 2013-08-10 35 0 - 1975-08-10 35 0 3 2011-08-10 31 0 - 2006-08-10 31 1 - 1973-08-10 31 0 - 1949-08-10 31 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 29 2 2 2018-08-10 26 2 - 2006-08-10 26 0 3 2013-08-10 23 5 - 2010-08-10 23 2 4 2014-08-10 21 0 - 2011-08-10 21 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 45 1 2 2012-08-10 43 1 3 2010-08-10 42 1 4 2011-08-10 41 1 5 2006-08-10 40 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 43 0 - 2011-08-10 43 0 2 2012-08-10 42 0 - 1994-08-10 42 0 3 2010-08-10 41 0 - 1988-08-10 41 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 45 0 - 2010-08-10 45 0 2 1908-08-10 43 0 3 1906-08-10 42 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 52 0 2 2010-08-10 51 0 - 2006-08-10 51 0 3 2012-08-10 49 0 4 2019-08-10 45 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 43 0 2 2010-08-10 34 0 3 2013-08-10 27 1 4 2018-08-10 26 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 29 4 - 2010-08-10 29 0 3 2013-08-10 28 0 4 2012-08-10 27 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2013-08-10 28 0 2 2010-08-10 27 0 3 2020-08-10 26 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 40 0 2 2012-08-10 36 0 - 1949-08-10 36 0 3 2020-08-10 35 0 - 2013-08-10 35 0

The world is a much warmer place now than after the 82-83 and 97-98 super El Niños. So the regional climate patterns have been different. But you can see the Euro going right back to the SE Canada high and onshore flow by next weekend.