bluewave

Who knows, maybe some bonus light snows can still sneak in here on Thursday.

Yeah, we are now in the all or nothing snowfall era. All years...................09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 20-21 Nothing years..........11-12, 18-19,19-20 Islip seasonal snowfall since 2010

The record warm pool east of New England this year could be another factor.

Who could have guessed after the raging polar vortex last winter that the AO would be negative nearly every day of this winter? 2020 12 1 0.236 2020 12 2 -0.011 2020 12 3 -1.188 2020 12 4 -1.713 2020 12 5 -1.363 2020 12 6 -1.468 2020 12 7 -1.555 2020 12 8 -1.108 2020 12 9 -1.002 2020 12 10 -1.395 2020 12 11 -2.139 2020 12 12 -2.657 2020 12 13 -2.813 2020 12 14 -2.857 2020 12 15 -2.937 2020 12 16 -2.760 2020 12 17 -2.260 2020 12 18 -1.736 2020 12 19 -1.125 2020 12 20 -0.884 2020 12 21 -1.214 2020 12 22 -1.739 2020 12 23 -1.511 2020 12 24 -0.451 2020 12 25 0.226 2020 12 26 -0.467 2020 12 27 -2.752 2020 12 28 -3.197 2020 12 29 -2.516 2020 12 30 -2.602 2020 12 31 -2.949 2021 1 1 -2.909 2021 1 2 -2.685 2021 1 3 -2.427 2021 1 4 -3.069 2021 1 5 -3.418 2021 1 6 -3.436 2021 1 7 -2.995 2021 1 8 -2.895 2021 1 9 -2.602 2021 1 10 -1.611 2021 1 11 -0.849 2021 1 12 -0.650 2021 1 13 -0.909 2021 1 14 -2.176 2021 1 15 -2.515 2021 1 16 -1.796 2021 1 17 -1.302 2021 1 18 -1.696 2021 1 19 -1.919 2021 1 20 -2.283 2021 1 21 -2.290 2021 1 22 -2.022 2021 1 23 -2.124 2021 1 24 -2.694 2021 1 25 -3.582 2021 1 26 -3.543 2021 1 27 -3.202 2021 1 28 -2.593 2021 1 29 -2.726 2021 1 30 -2.825 2021 1 31 -2.513

With more snowfall opportunities ahead of us, JFK is already top 10 for February snowfall. NYC and ISP aren’t too far behind. So our record snowfall pattern since the 02-03 winter continues. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2003 32.1 0 2 2010 29.6 0 3 1961 25.4 0 4 1983 24.7 0 5 1994 23.7 0 6 1969 22.4 0 7 2014 21.0 0 8 1967 19.9 0 9 2021 18.8 21 10 1996 18.4 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2010 36.9 0 2 2014 29.0 0 3 1934 27.9 0 4 2006 26.9 0 5 1994 26.4 0 6 1926 26.3 0 7 2003 26.1 0 8 1920 25.3 0 - 1899 25.3 0 9 1967 23.6 0 10 1978 23.0 0 11 1907 21.8 0 12 1983 21.5 0 13 1996 21.2 0 14 1894 20.5 0 15 1979 20.1 0 16 2021 19.9 21 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2013 31.4 0 2 1969 29.5 0 3 1978 28.9 0 4 1983 26.1 0 5 2014 24.5 0 6 2010 21.7 0 7 1994 20.0 1 8 2006 19.9 0 9 1967 19.5 0 10 1996 19.0 0 11 2021 17.4 21

Long Beach has to be one of the most fun spots on Long Island. It was a really cool place to grow up. Very unique vibe and mix of people.

It started this morning with rain and 38° on the South Shore.

Mini version of the Long Beach polar bear plunge today.

Beautiful pink sunset with the snow sticking to all the trees. Finished with 5.0” here in SW Suffolk. Lost about 1” to rain and melting snow at the start.

Very impressive merger of the bands across Suffolk right now.

Approaching 6” on parts of Long Island under these heavy bands.

Heaviest snow of the day right now across much of Long Island.

Heavy snow and 32° in SW Suffolk as the heavy band is right across the area now.

Our first 6”+ event within a week of a 12”+ event for parts of area since March 2018.

33° with snow becoming moderate in SW Suffolk. You can see the band that has been over NJ pushing NE toward Long Island.

Yeah, it gets back to areas of banding often setting up NW of where the raw model QPF output suggests. That’s why this is always discussed in NWS AFDs.

A very special thanks to Walt and others for creating this fantastic product. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Bob Hart, FSU David Novak, WPC Walt Drag, NWS PHI Rich Grumm, NWS CTP Last Updated: Sun Feb 7 15:20:02 UTC 2021

The 12z Nam run from yesterday that I posted had the multiple bands.

Snowfall becoming moderate now with giant flakes in SW Suffolk. Temp dropped from 38° to 34°. Snow sticking on all surfaces including paved now.

Temp dropped from 38° to 35° here in SW Suffolk with steady light snow. Giant flakes and an estimated visibility of .75 mile. Also beginning to stick on the cars.

Yeah, I am changing over to light snow now with the temperature down to 37°.

38° and rain here in SW Suffolk before the evap cooling kicks in.

Yeah, these SAL intrusions have become stronger in recent years.

This is a really interesting pattern. It looks like the strongest MJO phase 7 with such intense Greenland blocking. So our area is in the battle zone between the SE Ridge and pressing TPV. The end result will be an unusually high number of winter storm events here.