bluewave

That +13 December was one of the most extreme events that we have seen so far this century. The record breaking WAR was at the start of our warmest 5 winter stretch on record. It has been a dominant force through the year including the winters.

Yeah, notice how the SE Ridge and ridge south of the Aleutians make a quick return in about 10 days. This lines up really well with the band of near record warm SSTs around 40N across the Atlantic and Pacific.

Cooler pattern than the early part of the month coming up. The 500mb height anomalies will slowly shift poleward. So more blocking will promote a drop in temperatures. First 10 days of month Day 5 to day 10 EPS forecast

NYC actually had a more impressive warm minimum record than LGA. This is the first record stretch of warmth that I can remember when NYC had warmer minimums than LGA. The low of 64° in NYC is the 4th highest for the month of November. It was also the warmest 11-5 to 11-11 on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 5 to Nov 11 Missing Count 1 2020-11-11 64.6 0 2 1975-11-11 63.1 0 3 1938-11-11 59.7 0 4 1948-11-11 58.7 0 5 2015-11-11 57.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1971 67 0 2 2015 66 0 3 1956 65 0 4 2020 64 19 - 2018 64 0 - 1938 64 0 - 1936 64 0 - 1929 64 0 - 1895 64 0

Looks like a step down in temperatures following the record November 70° day steak. Maybe a week away from a freeze around NYC. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/12/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19 CLIMO X/N 61| 47 56| 40 54| 40 59| 51 55| 36 49| 31 43| 27 43 37 53 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2020 7 19 - 1975 7 0 2 1994 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1953 6 0 - 1931 6 0 3 2015 5 0 - 2001 5 0 - 1982 5 0 - 1938 5 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 1953 7 0 2 2020 6 19 - 1994 6 0 - 1975 6 0 3 2015 5 0 - 1938 5 0 - 1931 5 0 - 1927 5 0

Yeah, looks like the new record for this late in the year. Record rainfall and dew points to our south.

Impressive record to our south.

Could be the highest PWAT so late in the year for OKX with the heavy rains around the 0z sounding. Precipitable water: 1.93 inches

On track for a record 7 consecutive days reaching 70° at Newark. The previous record for November was 4 days. It looks like we are shifting to more of a less warm is the new cool mode. Still above average, but no 70s showing up after today for the near future. Maybe some cooler weather in about a week. 2020-11-05 70 2020-11-06 73 2020-11-07 77 2020-11-08 77 2020-11-09 77 2020-11-10 76 KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/11/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18 CLIMO X/N 75| 57 61| 49 58| 41 56| 40 57| 46 61| 37 50| 34 46 38 53

A November beach day in the Canadian Maritimes with the all-time warmth.

A more extreme November monthly maximum temperature on the latest update. So far the record high of 75° is 7 degrees warmer than the record set just last year. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75 21 2 2019 68 0 - 1956 68 0 3 1982 67 0 - 1953 67 0

This is the first time that I can remember so many daily record highs with strong radiational cooling at night. It resulted in the departures being driven by the high temperatures by an unusually wide margin. So the average departures this month are lower than you would expect with so many record high temperatures. EWR....max....+7.8....min...+0.7....avg....+4.2 NYC...............+6.5..............+3.8...............+5.1 LGA................+7.8.............+4.1...............+6.0 JFK................+5.7..............+0.1..............+2.8 ISP.................+6.9..............+1.5...............+4.2 HPN...............+7.5.............+1.5...............+4.5 POU...............+7.9.............+1.6...............+4.8 ACY................+7.7............+0.8...............+4.2

Portions of Long Island are getting diurnal swings similar to Elko, Nevada in late September. Almanac for Elko Area, NV (ThreadEx) September 27, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 72 74 91 in 2010 43 in 1923 Min Temperature 34 35 51 in 1989 13 in 1889

3 record highs in a row for JFK. Looks like the first 3 consecutive days there since December 2015. 12/12 64 in 2015 59 in 1983 57 in 2008+ 12/13 70 in 2015 63 in 1983 60 in 1984 12/14 61 in 2015 60 in 2001 59 in 1991 12/15 64 in 2015 61 in 2001 59 in 1975 12/23 63 in 2015 59 in 2006 59 in 1981 12/24 69 in 2015 58 in 1990 57 in 2014 12/25 64 in 2015 58 in 1982 57 in 2014+

Pretty impressive to go 4 consecutive days with average wind speeds of 5 mph or lower. Be interesting to see if the fog that @forkyforkmentioned on the NAM verifies. Could be quite dense if the winds remain calm under the inversion. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=71&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&year=2020&month=11&units=MPH&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yeah, pretty impressive PAC Jet extension should maintain this -PNA SE Ridge pattern until further notice.

This is our first 591 dm ridge during the month of November.

This record ridge with lower dew points and light winds is setting up an unusual temperature pattern for us. We get record highs during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. Quite a departure from our typical record warm minimums.

Those were the old days when we would get a cold October before a cold winter.

2 record highs in a row for JFK.

Pretty impressive for ISP to beat their daily record high set in 2011 by 6 degrees.

November 1993 was a much cooler month. Only 1 day of real warmth around the 15th with NYC reaching 80° and JFK 77°. NYC finished +1.1 and JFK -0.7.

Our latest 590 dm ridge of the year. 21 500 5900

Long Island is the warm spot around the area at 10 am. MacArthur/ISP MOSUNNY 70 48 45 N5 30.37S Shirley SUNNY 71 47 42 N7 30.38R

This is one of those rare times that LGA dropped 2° cooler than NYC with calm winds.