bluewave

6th March at Newark with a 50° or greater temperature drop within 4 days. 3-11-21....75°.....3-15-21.....24°........-51° 3-1-17......73°......3-5-17......14°........-59° 3-14-07....79°......3-16-07....25°........-54° 3-8-87......77°......3-10-87....16°........-61° 3-19-86....72°......3-21-86....16°........-56° 3-2-72......78°......3-4-72.......20°.......-58°

I think that 3-30-07 may be the record lowest relative humidity. LGA 1:51 PM 63 F 2 F 9 % EWR 5:51 PM 68 F -5 F 5 % JFK 7:51 PM 64 F 0 F 8 %

61 mph peak gust on Long Island.

Gusting close to 50 mph now on Long Island. Jones Beach N/A 50 N/A N/A NW36G48 Matinecock Pt N/A 48 N/A N/A W41G49

Gusting close to 60 mph now in Newburgh.

Unusually dry 50/50 low suppression pattern right into mid-March. Boston set a new record for the least amount of clouds during the first two weeks of March. Dewpoints and relative humidity have been falling below model guidance. So it allowed temperatures to warm above guidance and set daily high temperature records. Another Arctic front will cross the area this afternoon. Winds may gust past 50 mph with steep lapse rates right up to 750 mb and temperatures in the 50s. Low temperatures Monday morning temperatures may drop to the low 20s in places like Newark. This would be 55° colder than just a few days ago. Dewpoints look to drop below 0 on Monday. If we can reach to near -10 or lower, then it would be close to the record for mid-March.

Wind gusts may beat expectations with the Arctic front this afternoon. Temperatures rise into the 50s with low dewpoints and steep lapse rates to near 750mb. So there could be some gusts over 50 mph with the MOS temperatures warmer than the raw soundings. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/14/2021 0600 UTC DT /MAR 14 /MAR 15 /MAR 16 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 57 18 39 24 42 TMP 39 49 54 52 43 33 25 20 19 29 36 38 33 29 28 26 26 35 40 40 35

A -10 dewpoint on Monday would be near the record lowest for mid-March. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/13/2021 1200 UTC DT /MAR 13/MAR 14 /MAR 15 /MAR 16 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 33 55 22 40 26 TMP 47 48 43 40 38 36 36 44 52 51 43 34 28 24 23 31 38 39 32 29 28 DPT 8 9 14 19 21 21 22 21 17 12 9 6 4 2 -1 -6-10-10 -6 7 11

The low humidity season has arrived right on time. We typically see the driest conditions of the year around March. The 13% reading at Newark was the lowest of the year so far. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2018&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 18 13

The droughts between 1995 and 2002 were impressive. That was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. 2010 wasn’t as dry. All our droughts since 2003 have been shorter and less severe than those years. 1966 was in a class by itself. It’s estimated that the drought in the 1960s was the worst in 300 to 400 years.

The worst droughts since 2003 have been to our west. Very challenging for us to sustain an extended dry pattern. We are in one of the areas that have seen a steady increase in precipitation as the climate has warmed.

NYC is on track for the 2nd driest March 1-15th on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Mar 15 Missing Count 1 1886-03-15 0.07 0 2 2021-03-15 0.16 4 3 1927-03-15 0.26 0 4 1894-03-15 0.30 0 - 1879-03-15 0.30 0 5 1873-03-15 0.38 0

Looks like the lowest relative humidity of the year so far at Newark at only 13%. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 18 13

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 1220 PM EST FRIDAY MAR 12 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT BRIDGEPORT CT... AS OF 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON, THE TEMPERATURE AT BRIDGEPORT CT IS 65 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN 2012.

Islip approaching the record high. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 63 31 30 NW15G24 Data for March 12 - ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2012-03-12 65 35 0.00 0.0 0 1973-03-12 65 45 0.05 0.0 0 1977-03-12 58 36 0.00 0.0 0

It’s easy to lose track of all the -4 and +4 days since 2010 with the record swings. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2021 3 12 5.656 2021 2 8 -4.415 2021 2 9 -4.924 2021 2 10 -5.285 2021 2 11 -5.254 2021 2 12 -4.106 2020 1 12 4.454 2020 1 13 4.500 2020 1 14 4.060 2020 2 9 5.765 2020 2 10 5.910 2020 2 11 4.422 2020 2 16 4.539 2020 2 17 4.807 2020 2 18 4.556 2020 2 19 4.276 2020 2 20 4.925 2020 2 21 6.073 2020 2 22 5.994 2020 2 23 4.622 2018 3 1 -4.197 2018 3 2 -4.426 2018 3 3 -4.107 2016 12 20 4.301 2016 12 21 4.742 2016 12 22 4.511 2015 12 22 4.503 2016 1 15 -4.004 2016 1 16 -4.898 2016 1 17 -4.554 2015 3 1 4.000 2015 3 6 4.187 2015 3 7 5.581 2015 3 8 5.588 2015 3 9 4.952 2015 4 11 4.367 2015 4 12 4.416 2013 3 18 -4.147 2013 3 19 -5.193 2013 3 20 -5.688 2013 3 21 -5.399 2013 3 22 -5.240 2013 3 23 -4.855 2013 3 24 -4.601 2013 3 25 -4.299 2013 3 26 -4.021 2013 11 15 4.469 2013 12 15 4.303 2011 12 2 4.350 2011 4 11 4.057 2011 4 5 4.106 2010 12 17 -4.549 2010 12 18 -5.265 2010 12 19 -4.695 2010 12 20 -4.111 2010 12 21 -4.230 2010 11 26 -4.058 2010 2 5 -4.706 2010 2 6 -5.205 2010 2 7 -5.005 2010 2 8 -4.734 2010 2 9 -4.459 2010 2 10 -4.266 2010 2 11 -4.638 2010 2 12 -4.758 2010 2 13 -4.945 2010 2 14 -5.132 2010 2 15 -4.730 2010 2 16 -4.292 2010 2 17 -4.125 2010 2 18 -3.943 2010 2 19 -4.026 2010 2 20 -4.320 2010 2 21 -4.462 2010 2 22 -4.403 2010 2 23 -4.591 2010 2 24 -4.211 2009 12 31 -4.100 2010 1 1 -4.615 2010 1 2 -5.384 2010 1 3 -5.533 2010 1 4 -5.403 2010 1 5 -5.180 2010 1 6 -5.095 2010 1 7 -4.671 2009 12 18 -4.238 2009 12 19 -4.651 2009 12 20 -5.341 2009 12 21 -5.821 2009 12 22 -5.503 2009 12 23 -5.577 2009 12 24 -5.256 2009 12 25 -5.052 2009 12 26 -4.406

Newark could see only its 6th March 50° or greater March temperature drop within 4 days. 3-11-21....75°.....3-15-21.....? 3-1-17......73°......3-5-17......14°........-59° 3-14-07....79°......3-16-07....25°........-54° 3-8-87......77°......3-10-87....16°........-61° 3-19-86....72°......3-21-86....16°........-56° 3-2-72......78°......3-4-72.......20°.......-58°

9th earliest first 75° day of the year at Newark. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 536 PM EST THU MAR 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1977. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1949 02-15 (1949) 76 11-11 (1949) 75 268 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 1972 03-01 (1972) 75 09-27 (1972) 85 209 1964 03-05 (1964) 75 10-28 (1964) 76 236 1976 03-05 (1976) 75 10-09 (1976) 76 217 1946 03-07 (1946) 75 10-31 (1946) 82 237 1987 03-08 (1987) 77 11-04 (1987) 78 240 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-30 (2016) 78 234 2006 03-10 (2006) 76 10-18 (2006) 75 221 2020 03-11(2020) 75

Newark could be around 50° colder behind the Arctic front Monday morning.

The 70° at Newark is close to the record. Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 70 36 28 SW12 Data for March 11 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1977-03-11 71 45 0.00 0.0 0 1967-03-11 70 44 0.01 0.0 0 2016-03-11 69 48 0.03 0.0 0 1990-03-11 68 44 0.04 0.0 0 2014-03-11 67 38 0.00 0.0 0 1955-03-11 67 48 T 0.0 0

This paper back in 2009 was right on the money. We can expand this to the extreme AO volatility. The AO has been swinging from one extreme to another. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming January 14, 2009 The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions. “When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior,” said Goodkin. “That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere.” As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

Yeah, 70s away from the ocean look like good bet today. The dewpoints are only in the 20s and 30s to our south. So quickly rising temperatures in such a dry airmass. STAFFORD* PTCLDY 53 24 32 CALM 30.37R FREDERICKSBRG* PTCLDY 52 35 51 S3 30.33R

The new GFS v16 shows improvement over the old version. The cold bias is pretty much gone. The links below have all the important stats.