bluewave

Another day with the SSTs at the buoys around 80°. Even the Boston buoy is in the mid 70s. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1850 78 190/ 6/ 8 1008.9 2/ 8 20 S Fire Island 1850 81 210/ 14/ 16 1009.4 3/ 8 Great South Bay 1830 83 220/ 16/ 17 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1850 78 75 220/ 16/ 17 1009.1 3/ 9 15 E Barnegat Li 1826 81 N/A 3/ 9 Hudson Canyon 1850 79 1011.3 3/ 8 STATION/POSITION TIME TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) BOSTON BUOY 1750 83 75 240/ 8/ 8 1005.1 1/ 9 BUZZARDS BAY 1800 210/ 17/ 17 1009.3F NANTUCKET SOUND 1840 76 220/ 16/ 19 1007.0F MASS BAY-STELLWA NOT AVBL ISLE OF SHOALS 1800 85 200/ 11/ 12 1005.2F S OF BLOCK IS 1826 75 N/A 3/ 5

Record highs at ISP and BDR

All day westerly flow heat events have been few and far between on LI since the super El Niño in 2015-2016.We would get one after another from 2010-2013. Onshore flow and record dew points have become the new normal.

Made it to 91 before the sea breeze arrived. 89° now with a SW wind and the dew point rising to 69°.

A top 5 warmest summer so far at many stations across the region. Numerous temperature departures in the +3 to +4 range since June 1st. Just shows how cooler patterns like April and May don’t have lasting power anymore.

LGA has been tracking pretty close to Astoria which is also in Northern Queens. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=D3216&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Weather Conditions for D3216 DW3216 Astoria Current Time: 07/26/2020 16:52 EDT Most Recent Weather Conditions at: 07/26/2020 16:45 EDT Graphical Links 16:45 Max Since 0:00 (EDT) Min Since 0:00 (EDT) 24 Hour Maximum 24 Hour Minimum Temperature 94.0° F 95.0 at 15:25 78.0 at 7:12 95.0 at 15:25 78.0 at 7:12

LGA and EWR switched places following the super El Niño in 2016. EWR was the local hotspot from 2010 to 2015. But LGA took the lead in recent years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 96 159 2019 99 0 2018 98 0 2017 99 0 2016 99 0 2015 98 0 2014 96 0 2013 101 0 2012 104 0 2011 108 0 2010 103 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 97 159 2019 100 0 2018 98 0 2017 101 0 2016 99 0 2015 95 0 2014 93 0 2013 100 0 2012 101 0 2011 104 0 2010 103 0

Another sharp sea breeze front. LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 95 56 26 W18G26 29.91F HX 93 Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 88 75 65 S12 29.92F HX 97

This may be a first for an extended period that I can remember also. The upwelling from Fay only lasted 3 days.

Just one that I could find in 2010 at Farmingdale. Maximum 30-Day Mean Avg Temperature for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 80.2 2010-07-25 0

I haven’t been able to find any 80° months on Long Island south of the Long Island Expressway. Even JFK has only had 1 month to average 80° in July 2010. Maybe there have been some stations north of the LIE on LI that did it.

FRG is close to its first 80° July. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.9 6 2 2010 79.7 0 3 2013 78.1 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2019 77.5 0

Low of 75° here on the South Shore with a return of the Miami dew points to 76° . SSTs are already around 80° at just 10 am. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1350 76 220/ 8/ 8 1016.1 2/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1350 79 240/ 14/ 16 1016.3 3/ 4 Great South Bay 1330 78 240/ 12/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1350 74 72 250/ 8/ 10 1016.5 3/ 5 15 E Barnegat Li 1326 80 N/A 2/ 3

We did notice the LGA summer temperature departures pick up in 2016 relative to EWR and JFK. It’s interesting that there was a similar increase at BDR. Both stations have been tracking pretty closely since the super El Niño in 2016. They are our closest stations to the Long Island Sound. Maybe a result of the warmer SSTs on the sound and record dew point regime since the super El Niño. Could also be a local response to general circulation and temperature changes since then. LGA and BDR temperature departures for July and August since 2016 LGA......JUL....AUG 2016....+3.7....+5.3 2017....+0.7....-0.9 2018...+2.4....+4.7 2019....+4.1...+1.3 2020...+4.8 BDR....JUL....AUG 2016...+3.2...+5.1 2017...+0.9....-0.4 2018...+1.8....+4.6 2019...+4.0....+1.1 2020....+3.7

It also looks like the warmer SSTs are helping FRG go for the July 90° day record. The only other year since the records began in 2000 to reach 10 days was 2010. That had much more westerly flow compared to all the onshore flow this July. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 11 0 2 2020 10 6 3 2011 9 0

The local SSTs have been near 80°on a regular basis. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1950 190/ 14/ 17 1017.4 2/ 5 20 S Fire Island 1940 80 200/ 10/ 12 1018.2 Great South Bay 1930 79 220/ 8/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1940 76 76 240/ 10/ 12 1018.4 15 E Barnegat Li 1926 81 N/A 2/15

LGA getting closer to the July all-time record number of 90° days. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 18 0 2 1999 17 0 3 2016 15 0 - 2013 15 0 4 2019 14 0 - 2012 14 0 - 2011 14 0 - 2002 14 0 - 1955 14 0 - 1952 14 0 - 1949 14 0 2020 14 6

The crepe myrtles have also been doing very well here in SW Suffolk. Mr. Roddick, of Brooklyn’s Botanic Garden, actually had his first big arboreal surprise in the mid-1990s. Similar to his fig tree epiphany a few years later, he noticed that a gardener had failed to cut back the crepe myrtle trees, which normally froze in the winter. “The trees were budding,” Mr. Roddick said. “We were shocked.” Over the last 22 years, only once has an ice storm damaged the trees, he said. Crepe myrtles are native to Southeast Asia, India and parts of the Central and South Pacific. They are also very common in the American South, where in the summer, they splash the landscape with red, pink, lavender and white blossoms. Until recently, crepe myrtles in New York City would grow no larger than a shrub; gardeners would cut them down to the root for winter. Now the Brooklyn Botanic Garden grows several varieties year-round, and some have grown into 20-foot trees. They can be found throughout the city and the northern suburbs.

Yeah, record high dew points and minimum temperatures have become our new summer normal. ISP on track for the first 70° average dew point July.

Yeah, warmest July monthly minimums across the region for numerous rural, suburban, and urban stations. This has been a theme in recent years. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 7 2 2019 54 0 3 2013 53 0 - 2012 53 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 7 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 4 2013 60 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 7 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 7 - 2008 68 0 3 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 7 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 5 2011 65 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 7 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 7 2 2019 64 0 3 2015 63 0

Looks like the same pattern with the highest dew points remaining over Long Island.

Newark moves into 2nd place for wettest July. Only the 2nd time with this much rain and an 80° average temperature. Julys this wet have been much cooler at Newark. This is also the warmest July to feature a tropical storm in our area. Summer months with tropical cyclones are usually not as warm as this July was. But when we had warmer months with tropical cyclones like August 1955, the heatwave arrived before the tropical activity. This month, Fay came before the strongest heatwave of the season so far. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temp 1 1988 9.98 80.4 2 2020 9.93 80.1 3 1984 8.65 76.5 4 2004 8.39 75.0 5 1996 8.27 73.8 6 1975 8.02 76.9 7 1938 7.96 75.5 8 1961 7.95 77.3 9 1967 7.53 74.2 10 1969 7.11 74.2

The NEPAC warm blob is back again.

100° temperatures are only one metric by which to measure hot summers here. 2016 was a top 4 warmest July and August. We never went below 0 during the -10 February 2015. But it was much colder on average than February 2016 when NYC went below 0. Sometimes the monthly max or min isn’t aligned with the monthly average temperature departure.

Even if the flow was W to NW at JFK, the 850s aren’t forecast to be high enough to reach 100°. They look close to what we saw last week. The warm spots have been topping out near 97° with +20C 850s this July. Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY 2020-07-02 95 2020-07-05 96 2020-07-06 96 2020-07-18 95 2020-07-19 97 2020-07-20 97 2020-07-21 95 2020-07-22 95