bluewave

The strong WAR without a deep trough in the MW/GL favors the SE and GOM like we are seeing with Sally. Notice how the trough remained up near Hudson Bay and couldn’t dig.We’ll have to see if the Euro stronger WAR verifies later in the week with the northern fringe of the remnant Sally moisture streaming into our area.

This could be our first year with 30 or more 90° days with none in the spring or fall. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2010 0 0 0 1 2 12 18 11 4 0 0 0 48 2018 0 0 0 0 4 4 10 16 4 0 0 0 38 2002 0 0 0 2 0 5 14 13 1 0 0 0 35 2020 0 0 0 0 0 5 19 10 0 M M M 34 1991 0 0 0 0 4 9 10 9 2 0 0 0 34 2016 0 0 0 0 3 1 15 10 3 0 0 0 32 1983 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 8 7 0 0 0 31 2005 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 10 3 0 0 0 30 1953 0 0 0 0 1 7 10 9 3 0 0 0 30

We have a pretty good idea that this will be the 5th consecutive winter with a La Niña-like base state. The North Pacific Ridge was able to extend NE into Alaska in 16-17 and 17-18 allowing for snowy and warm. The El Niño couldn’t couple in 18-19 due to all the record Niña-like SST warmth in the WPAC. So we had the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii and SE ridge for a mild and nearly snowless DJF. The record WPAC warmth in 19-20 set new records north of Australia. So we got a continuation of record MJO 4-6 amplitude and the Niña-like ridge north of Hawaii and SE Ridge. Warm and even less snowy overall than the previous year since we didn’t get the Nov and Mar snows. This fall we will be looking for clues as to which type of La Niña winter we will have this year. It often comes down to how much snow NYC can pick up in December. All the Niña-like Decembers with under 3.0” of snow in NYC since 1995 featured below normal snowfall seasons. While all above 3.0” finished normal to above normal. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6

Today was the 4th latest that HPN dropped below 55° after August 1st. Looks like NYC is on track for a 2nd latest first drop below 60 in a couple of days. HPN 12 Sep 7:56 am 57 50 77 ENE 6 10.00 CLR 29.92 1026.6 30.32 59 54 First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2005 06-23 (2005) 53 09-24 (2005) 51 92 2015 06-07 (2015) 51 09-21 (2015) 54 105 2011 06-15 (2011) 54 09-15 (2011) 50 91 1959 06-20 (1959) 50 09-12 (1959) 50 83 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94 1947 06-25 (1947) 58 09-17 (1947) 58 83 1966 06-13 (1966) 58 09-15 (1966) 51 93 2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78 1996 06-03 (1996) 54 09-14 (1996) 57 102

https://www.njherald.com/news/20200909/summer-2020-was-second-hottest-on-record-in-new-jersey New Jersey experienced its second-hottest summer on record, continuing a long-term warming trend in the Garden State and across the planet that has seen sea levels rise and extreme weather become more common. The average temperature statewide soared to 75.3 degrees from June through August, ranking only behind 2010′s record-setting heat, according to a report released Tuesday by Rutgers University. Climate change is being felt increasingly in New Jersey, with the 10 hottest summers having all occurred since 1999, including seven since 2010, said David Robinson, the state climatologist and author of the report. A full list is below. “It’s indicative of what we’re seeing in other seasons in New Jersey, what we’re seeing nationally and what we’re seeing globally,” Robinson said. “It’s just another sign that climate change is here.” This summer’s milestone was not much of a surprise considering that July was the hottest month ever recorded in New Jersey. August 2020 was tied for the sixth-warmest August on record, and June was the 10th-warmest it’s been since record-keeping began in 1895.

50 years is not cherry picking. It represents the time of most rapid global warming as emissions have increased. The actual charts with trend lines are available at the NCDC site. New Jersey is one of the sates that you posted and summers have been warming at 0.3° F decade since 1895. This year was the 2nd warmest summer on record in NJ. Notice how many of the top 10 warmest summers have occurred in recent years. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series/28/tavg/3/8/1895-2020?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1895&endtrendyear=2020 201006 - 201008 75.7°F 126 202006 - 202008 75.3°F 125 201606 - 201608 74.9°F 124 200506 - 200508 74.8°F 123 201106 - 201108 74.6°F 122 201806 - 201808 74.4°F 121 201906 - 201908 74.4°F 121 199906 - 199908 74.3°F 119 201206 - 201208 74.2°F 118 200206 - 200208 74.0°F 117

It will be interesting to see how much longer this continues before it gets overpowered by warming. But how does agriculture cause increased rainfall and decreased temperatures? The team suspects it has to do with photosynthesis, which leads to more water vapor in the air. When a plant’s pores, called stomata, open to allow carbon dioxide to enter, they simultaneously allow water to escape. This increases the amount of water going into the atmosphere and returning as rainfall. The cycle may continue as that rainwater eventually moves back into the atmosphere and causes more rainfall downwind from the original agricultural area. Rong Fu, a climate scientist at UC Los Angeles, agrees with the team’s assessment. She also thinks that though human influence might be “greater than we realize,” this regional climate change is probably caused by many factors, including increased irrigation in the region. “This squares with a lot of other evidence,” says Peter Huybers, a climate scientist at Harvard University, who calls the new study convincing. But he warns that such benefits may not last if greenhouse gas emissions eventually overpower the mitigating effect of agriculture. Alter agrees, and says it’s unlikely that the large increases in U.S. crop production during the 20th century will continue. Other scientists have voiced concern that agricultural production could soon be reaching its limit in many parts of the world. “Food production is arguably what we’re more concerned about with climate change,” Mueller says. And understanding how agriculture and climate will continue to affect one another is crucial for developing projections for both climate and agricultural yields. “It’s not just greenhouse gasses that we need to be thinking about. While the cooling effect of irrigation mitigates global climate change on the regional scale, climate models suggest that regional warming attributed to the global trend will eventually overcome the magnitude of mitigation offered by irrigated agriculture. Farmers, who are partially buffered for now from more extreme heat, would quickly face increasing stress in that scenario. “Farmers in irrigated regions may experience more abrupt temperature increases that will cause them to have to adapt more quickly than other groups who are already coping with a warming climate,” says Kucharik. “It’s that timeframe in which people have time to adapt that concerns me.” The current study is the first to definitively link irrigation in the Midwest U.S. to an altered regional climate. These results could improve weather and climate forecasts, help farmers plan better, and, the researchers hope, better prepare agricultural areas to deal with a warming climate when the irrigation effect is washed out. “Irrigation is a land use with effects on climate in the Midwest, and we need to account for this in our climate models,” says Nocco.

The record breaking ridge centered near the Pacific Northwest Is a big change from the recent September decadal pattern. That area has usually experienced a trough during September. So it will be interesting to see if this temporary or has lasting potential through the fall and winter. This pattern keeps generating very strong highs that roll across the Northern US.

This is one of those times that a firehose Pacific Jet can help bring a series of cold fronts across the country.

The Euro has Canadian high pressure dominating into late September. So it’s possible that we had an early last 90° of the season back in late August. It would be the earliest last 90° at Newark since 2011. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69 Mean 05-21 09-12 113 Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019) 170 2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128 2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126 2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130 2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120 2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106 2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80 2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103 2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101 2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170

Pt Lookout wunderground station had 6.47.The 2” line was correct. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYPOINT4/graph/2020-09-10/2020-09-10/daily EAST ROCKAWAY 2.34 755 PM 9/10 CWOP VALLEY STREAM 2.05 746 PM 9/10 CWOP ROCKVILLE CENTRE 1.76 804 PM 9/10 AWS

Less but still a new daily record. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202009110201-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

Updated for 9-10. 9-10....Pt Lookout....6.47.....Massapequa....5.41...Wantagh Mesonet...4.64....Amityville....4.04....Copaigue....4.05

This photo looks like it was taken about a block away from the high school at the corner of Merrick and Arlyn.

The 4 to 5.4 range was pretty common from SE Nassau to SW Suffolk. NEW YORK ...NASSAU COUNTY... 1 SSW MASSAPEQUA 5.41 855 AM 9/10 COCORAHS MERRICK 4.38 820 AM 9/10 CWOP Wantagh mesonet..................................4.66 ..SUFFOLK COUNTY... WEST GILGO BEACH 4.13 816 AM 9/10 CWOP ENE COPIAGUE 4.05 800 AM 9/10 COCORAHS WSW AMITYVILLE 4.04 800 AM 9/10 COCORAHS

Yeah, this was among the heaviest events since 2010 for the general South Shore area 2018 8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73 2017 10-30...ISP....4.02 2015 9-10....Wantagh...6.05 2014 8-13.....ISP....13.51...Massapequa....8.20.....Wantagh...7.84 5-1......JFK....4.92. 2013 6-8...ISP....4.58... 2012 6-25...ISP...4.16 2011 8-28...JFK....5.03... 8-15...JFK....7.80..ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20 2010 3-30...JFK...4.37..ISP...4.82

Flooding in the usual low spots around Long Beach. The first scene below is Laurelton Blvd and Park. The second one is on Lido Blvd in front of the firehouse.

Station Number: NY-NS-16 Station Name: Massapequa 0.9 SSW Observation Date 9/10/2020 8:55 AM Submitted 9/10/2020 9:05 AM Total Precip Amount 5.41 in. Notes numerous water rescues Taken at registered location Yes Snow Information New Snow Depth NA New Snow Water Equivalent NA Total Snow Depth NA Total Snow Water Equivalent NA Duration Information Precipitation Began -- Precipitation Ended -- Heavy Precip Began -- Heavy Precip Lasted -- Duration Time Accuracy -- Additional Information Additional Data Recorded No Submitted 9/10/2020 9:05 AM Flooding Unusual

The Pt Lookout wunderground site has 6.38”. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYPOINT4 Precipitation 6.38 in

I am getting a break now here also. The back lawn was completely flooded with several inches of water. It has finally gone down. News12 is reporting that LB has delayed the start of school for several hours due to road flooding. https://twitter.com/News12LI?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Long Beach schools call for 2-hour delay due to street flooding Posted: Sep 10, 2020 8:00 AM EDTUpdated: Sep 10, 2020 8:11 AM EDT This morning's rain has caused some flooding in Long Beach, where the school district has called at least a two-hour delay due to impassable roads. The district says it will be reassessing the situation at 8:30 a.m. to see if the roads have cleared and will give an update. In video taken in Long Beach, roads are seen completely under water. Anyone heading out this morning is asked to try to avoid any flooded roadways, because it can be hard to tell just how deep the water really is. Meanwhile, in Seaford, St. William The Abbot School has canceled classes for grades 4,7, and 8 due to extensive flooding.

I am in SW Suffolk and Wantagh is the nearest station to my west. They are currently up to 4.52”. This is the heaviest rainfall event in such a short time there since 9-10-15.

4.08” at the Wantagh mesonet now.

3.80” now at the Wantagh Mesonet. This is the heaviest rainfall in under 2 hours here in SW Suffolk in at least 4 years.

Wantagh mesonet at 3.13” now. 2.31 of that fell in the last hour. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want