bluewave

The Euro has an impressive extended heatwave for New England over the next week. Double digit 7-day temperature departures.

The high so far of 94 at Caribou is just 2 degrees from the all-time record high of 96 degrees. The all-time record high in Caribou is 96F, last set on May 22, 1977. There was one other occurrence of a high of 96F, on June 29, 1944. There have been only 9 times in Caribou with a high of 95F, the last of which was on July 20, 1991.

Already 92 degrees in Northern Maine before noon. ESTCOURT STATION 4ESE MAWS, ME. ESCM1 (HADS) 18 Jun 11:45 am 92 WSW 1 30.01 30.87 0.00

It will be interesting to see if Caribou can challenge their all-time June high temperature. Burlington recently set their all-time May record high.

Areas that missed the convection are seeing one of their driest mid-May to mid-June periods on record. Bridgeport has picked up less than an inch of rain over the last 30 days. LGA and ISP only have a little more than an inch. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 18 to Jun 16 Missing Count 1 1957-06-16 0.63 0 2 2020-06-16 0.75 1 3 1955-06-16 1.15 0 4 1971-06-16 1.16 0 5 1987-06-16 1.19 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 18 to Jun 16 Missing Count 1 1967-06-16 0.58 0 2 2020-06-16 1.12 1 3 1944-06-16 1.19 0 4 1994-06-16 1.39 0 5 1965-06-16 1.49 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 18 to Jun 16 Missing Count 1 1964-06-16 0.91 0 2 1994-06-16 1.11 0 3 1981-06-16 1.12 0 4 2020-06-16 1.21 1 5 1967-06-16 1.24 0

We have seen the subtropical high extending further to the north in recent years. Once the ridge axis gets north of 40N, our area gets southeast flow. July 2018 featured very humid onshore flow here. BTV went +5.4 with their first 80 degree minimum. LGA only had a 79 minimum and a +2.4 . The onshore flow in late May kept the all-time record highs to our north. So the next several days will feature the warmest temperatures staying north again with onshore flow here. July 2018 5-28-20 More of the same next several days

Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north.

Yeah, just a continuation of the onshore flow pattern that dominated the second half of May. Looks Ike the models have been rushing warm ups when there is a cooler pool off the East Coast. Seems like the reverse of the models continuously underestimating the WAR in recent years when that record warm pool was out there.

12z Euro continuing the onshore flow into next weekend now. Big change from just a few runs ago. New run Old run

While its been a warmer than average first two weeks of June, the highest departures have been over the Central US. The greatest warmth looks to remain to our west through much of this week. But a piece should come east by next weekend. Main question will be how much onshore flow we will have at the time of the warm up. All models indicating at least some SE flow at that time. EWR...+2.6 NYC....+2.2 LGA....+3.6 JFK....+1.1 BDR...+1.9 ISP.....+2.2

It’s currently a bit more neutral than recent summers. But there is still plenty of NEPAC SST warmth. So nothing like the impressive -PDO cold ring we had in 2010-2013. 6-12-2020 6-12....2014 to 2019 6-12....2010 to 2013

LGA has been our only major station to reach 100 degrees in recent years along with several others in New England. But the rest of our major sites haven’t made it to 100 since the 2010-2013 period. Probably has something to do with the record NEPAC warming that began in 2013-2014. Most of our big warm ups in recent years have come with record high dew points and more onshore flow. Seems like the strong -PDO in 2010-2013 lead to record drought in the Southern Plains and more westerly flow here. Most recent 100 degree days at stations other and LGA EWR...2013 NYC....2012 JFK.....2013 ISP.......2011 BDR....2011 HPN....2010 FRG.....2011 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2019 100 0 2018 98 0 2017 101 0 2016 99 0 2015 95 0 2014 93 0 2013 100 0 2012 101 0 2011 104 0 2010 103 0

The low so far of 53 at Newark is 4 degrees off the record low this morning. First time since 1985 that Newark was so cool this late into June. White Plains tied their record low of 46 degrees. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ June 14, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 81 99 in 1988 61 in 2002 Min Temperature M 63 79 in 2005 49 in 1978 14 Jun 7:51 am 58 41 53 N 12 10.00 FEW060,FEW140,SCT220 30.35 1028.3 30.37 58 53 Almanac for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY June 14, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 77 96 in 1988 58 in 2002 Min Temperature M 59 72 in 2005 46 in 1979 Avg Temperature M 67.7 82.0 in 1988 55.5 in 2002 14 Jun 7:56 am 56 40 55 N 5 10.00 CLR 29.96 1028.1 30.36 56 46

Cooler easterly flow pattern developing right into next week. Warm up will begin to our north later next week as we still hold on to the onshore flow. Next chance of 90 degrees or higher looks like next weekend as the flow becomes more S to SW.

Another extended cool easterly flow pattern starts on Saturday. High pressure builds to the north and keeps the cutoff rains south of us. So New England will continue to see an expansion of dry conditions.

1.00 amounts as far north as Long Beach now. Several spots in Monmouth County with 2.00 estimates.

Flash flood warning in NJ with those training cells moving NE. Radar estimates of 1.80”max in the last hour.

Looks like the EPS keeps much of the rainfall with the cutoff to our south.

Warm front through SMQ with 101 HX.

Already 90 degrees south of the warm front with the first 75 degree dew points of the season. First 100+ HX of the year to our SW. TRENTON MOSUNNY 86 75 69 S9 29.95F HX 95 TOMS RIVER* PTSUNNY 90 70 51 S10 29.98F HX 95 GEORGETOWN MOSUNNY 93 75 55 S13G22 29.97F HX 104

Today looks like the last 90 degree potential for the more interior warm spots in a while. Cooler cutoff pattern with easterly flow develops and persists into next week. So far it looks like the big high keeps the heaviest cutoff rains to our south. But these exact cutoff low tracks and heaviest rain placement can easily change over time.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Research suggests that these disruptions will become more common as the climate continues to warm. A meteorologist on twitter wondered if this particular event was related to the record +IOD. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6306/1424 One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.

Warm spots around the region will see 90 degree potential today and tomorrow. Dew points will be on the increase Wednesday to go along with the heat. Scattered convection is possible on Thursday as the Christobal ET pulls a cold front through.

Rare Western U.S. derecho on Saturday.

The Christobal ET will result in a -5SD near record 980 mb low over the Western Great Lakes for a June. So the heat and high dew point surge will allow the warm spots to challenge 90 this week. Longer range, the Christobal wave break will reestablish the blocking and cooler temperatures here for mid-June.