bluewave

The general signal of convection firing over the Great Lakes and racing ESE is pretty easy for the models to spot. But the timing and intensity usually have to wait until the short term. How much do we destabilize before the storms arrive and will any debris clouds be a factor?

Models hinting at our first MCS of the season on Wednesday. Decent looking EML as the midlevel lapse rates continue to overperform this year.

Impressive radiational cooling for June 1st. Islip just missed the record low of 42 by 2 degrees. 01 Jun 7:56 am 56 38 51 N 13 10.00 FEW250 30.12 1023.8 30.23 44 Almanac for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY June 1, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 72 90 in 1988 57 in 2015 Min Temperature M 55 69 in 1987 42 in 2009 Avg Temperature M 63.8 78.0 in 1987 52.5 in 2009

6th lowest number of days to reach 70 this spring at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 1940 13 0 2 1967 14 0 3 1966 15 0 4 2003 16 0 5 1997 17 0 - 1950 17 0 6 2020 18 0 - 1973 18 0 - 1968 18 0 - 1956 18 0

Yeah, it was the 4th driest. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2015 0.46 0 2 1964 0.62 0 3 1986 1.09 0 4 2020 1.33 1 5 1962 1.45 0

100 degree days have been few and far between since the record Northeast Pacific warming in 13-14. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 2019 1 0 2018 0 0 2017 1 0 2016 0 0 2015 0 0 2014 0 0 2013 2 0 2012 1 0 2011 1 0 2010 2 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 2019 0 0 2018 0 0 2017 0 0 2016 0 0 2015 0 0 2014 0 0 2013 2 0 2012 3 0 2011 4 0 2010 4 0

5th coolest spring maximum temperature at Newark and 4th coolest at Philly. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1968 79 0 2 1967 83 0 - 1966 83 0 - 1958 83 0 - 1950 83 0 3 1971 84 0 - 1952 84 0 - 1940 84 0 4 1983 85 0 - 1982 85 0 5 2020 86 1 - 1997 86 0 - 1973 86 0 - 1961 86 0 - 1954 86 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1968 82 0 2 1950 83 0 3 1972 84 0 - 1967 84 0 - 1961 84 0 4 2020 85 1 - 1982 85 0 - 1966 85 0 - 1952 85 0

First 80 of the season here on the South Shore.

Latest first 80 of the season at JFK since 2010. Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 80 51 36 W10 First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-08 (2012) 123 Mean 05-03 10-02 151 Maximum 05-25 (2016) 10-19 (2016) 177 2019 05-20 (2019) 86 10-02 (2019) 95 134 2018 05-02 (2018) 83 10-07 (2018) 80 157 2017 04-16 (2017) 83 10-10 (2017) 84 176 2016 05-25 (2016) 87 10-19 (2016) 86 146 2015 05-05 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 80 146 2014 05-26 (2014) 85 09-27 (2014) 84 123 2013 04-09 (2013) 83 10-04 (2013) 80 177 2012 04-17 (2012) 81 09-08 (2012) 83 143 2011 05-24 (2011) 82 10-10 (2011) 84 138 2010 04-07 (2010) 87 09-25 (2010) 87 170

Portions of the South Shore could see their first 80 degree reading of spring today. We finally get a warmer offshore flow for a change. The spring high so far at JFK is 78 and 79 at ISP.

Decent Ambrose Jet today. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 72 66 81 S24G35

A version of July 2018 when BTV has an 80 degree minimum temperature and LGA only 79. Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - July 2018 2018-07-01 97 79 88.0 2018-07-02 95 77 86.0 Climatological Data for BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, VT - July 2018 2018-07-02 97 80 88.5

Yeah, very unusual to get such a cool April and May following top 5 December through March warmth. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Mar 31 Apr 1 to May 31 1 2012-03-31 43.1 60.0 2 2016-03-31 43.0 58.1 3 2002-03-31 42.2 58.4 4 2020-03-31 41.4 54.6 5 1998-03-31 41.1 59.2

It’s interesting that we had the coolest April and May since 2003 with such a warmer December through March. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Season 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 48.0 50.4 59.2 2002-2003 36.0 27.5 30.1 43.1 49.8 58.7

Another oddity this May was the monthly high and low temperature relationship between BTV and EWR. BTV doesn’t usually beat Newark by 9 degrees for a May monthly high temperature. The monthly minimum temperature is also not usually within 2 degrees at both stations. Monthly max/min 2020 BTV...95/32 EWR...86/34 2019 BTV...79/35 EWR...90/43 2018 BTV....88/36 EWR...94/44 2017 BTV...93/33 EWR..94/43 2016 BTV...91/33 EWR..96/40

An all-time warmest record for any month is very impressive so early in the warm season.

Newark is on track for the 5th coolest spring maximum temperature at only 86 degrees. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1968 79 0 2 1967 83 0 - 1966 83 0 - 1958 83 0 - 1950 83 0 3 1971 84 0 - 1952 84 0 - 1940 84 0 4 1983 85 0 - 1982 85 0 5 2020 86 4 - 1997 86 0 - 1973 86 0 - 1961 86 0 - 1954 86 0

BTV added another degree to their all-time May monthly high at 95 degrees. Newark only reached 95 or higher twice since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 86 5 2019 90 0 2018 94 0 2017 94 0 2016 96 0 2015 91 0 2014 88 0 2013 94 0 2012 92 0 2011 92 0 2010 95 0

Also some new dew point records around that region.

New all-time May record high possible for BTV today. Impressive 588 to 591 DM ridge builds near the Northeast. Onshore flow in our area keeps the record heat well to the north.

Much more comfortable temperatures here with the onshore flow and SSTs in the low 50s. Still some fog hanging on at the beaches.

BTV made it to 90 before our area this year.

Models have our first 70s dew points of the season. The clouds and heavy convection potential look like limiting factors on the the high temperatures. Would probably be an easy 90 with enough sun and +16-+17C 850 MB temperatures.

Finally cleared here late in the afternoon. But now the fog is rolling in along the South Shore.

Finally getting some sun here in SW Suffolk and 63 degrees.