bluewave

Gust to 64 mph down at ECG.

Pressure down to 989 mb at the buoy off South Carolina. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004 Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.21 in AS OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

LGA moves into 3rd place through yesterday for the longest streak of not falling below 70°. ISP also in 3rd place for longest streak of not falling below 65.° FRG is in 1st place for the longest streak of not falling below 70°. HPN in 1st place for not dropping below 64 degrees. BDR is in 1st place for longest streak of not dropping below 68°. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 34 2006-08-10 2 32 1980-08-15 3 31 2020-08-02 4 29 2018-08-19 5 28 2010-07-30 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 42 1988-08-16 2 32 2013-07-24 - 32 1980-08-15 3 31 2020-08-02 - 31 2019-08-09 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 29 2020-08-02 2 15 2010-07-25 - 15 2003-08-16 3 13 2006-08-07 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 64 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 31 2020-08-02 - 31 2013-07-24 2 25 2011-08-10 3 24 1961-09-14 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 68 for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 29 2020-08-02 2 20 2010-07-25 - 20 1994-08-04

The trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher. A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Lindenhurst - Sayville - Patchogue * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Tuesday evening

This was an interesting read... https://news.wisc.edu/irrigated-farming-in-wisconsins-central-sands-cools-the-regions-climate/

We would probably need to grow a lot of corn to ever have a shot at a 90° dew point here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/15/corn-sweat-may-exacerbate-heat-impacts-midwest-this-weekend/

That’s just some bad data that slipped in there. The US record is close to that. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-dew-point-temperatures.html

Our most recent stuck weather pattern.

New 5pm August record high dew point of 78°at POU. Poughkeepsie PTSUNNY 84 78 82 VRB3

New August hourly record high to go with all the records we had back in July.

The high dew points are allowing the HX to reach 100°. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 88 76 67 SE12 29.86F HX 99 Teterboro Arpt MOSUNNY 89 76 65 S14 29.85F HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 86 75 70 S13 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 84 75 74 S16 N/A HX 92 Breezy Point N/A 79 N/A N/A S14 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 82 75 78 SE14 N/A Staten Island N/A 88 77 70 SE7 N/A HX 100

The interaction or partial phase with the UL over the GL may make for a stronger system once north of JAX.

It looks like the airport established a new all-time daily rainfall record. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KRDG&num=48 Date (EDT) Temp (F) Dew Point (F) Relative Humidity (%) Wind Direction Wind Speed (MPH) Visibility (miles) Weather Clouds Station Pressure (inches) Sea Level Pressure (mb) Altimeter Setting (inches) 1 Hour Precip (inches) 3 Hour Precip (inches) 6 Hour Precip (inches) 24 Hour Precip (inches) 6 Hr Max (F) 6 Hr Min (F) 24 Hr Max (F) 24 Hr Min (F) 02 Aug 7:54 am 75 73 94 SSE 3 10.00 OVC012 29.50 1011.7 29.87 0.02 5.65 5.70 Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation for READING REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date 1 5.64 2005-10-08 2 5.15 2010-09-30 3 4.78 1999-09-16 4 3.36 2004-09-18 5 3.23 2005-07-17

Yeah, it was a pretty extreme heavy rainfall event for that area. https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ViewDailyPrecipReport.aspx?DailyPrecipReportID=9ce9b22d-6f90-40ff-a740-1aa6d432dd31 Station Number: PA-BR-31 Station Name: Reading 2.3 NW Observation Date 8/2/2020 7:00 AM Submitted 8/02/2020 7:13 AM Total Precip Amount 5.49 in. Notes T-storms started about 3:15 a.m. on and off rain continued until 5 when it became heavy

Another high dew point front for today. Looks like mid to possibly upper 70s dew points again today.

Areas to the east of the track could see wind gusts to 60 mph or greater if these forecast soundings are correct. Models all have an intense southerly LLJ sweeping across Long Island. With SSTs near 80° and no inversion, a large portion of the LLJ could mix down. Models have a 5SD LLJ event for early August. LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1005 1 26.4 23.0 82 3.4 23.9 164 45 299.1 302.4 296.9 351.3 17.89 1 1000 44 26.1 22.1 79 4.0 23.2 166 52 299.2 302.3 296.4 348.8 17.00 2 950 494 22.2 19.9 87 2.3 20.6 170 66 299.7 302.5 295.6 345.3 15.60 LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1005 7 25.8 21.4 77 4.4 22.7 175 41 298.5 301.5 295.7 345.6 16.18 1 1000 51 25.9 20.5 72 5.4 22.1 177 49 299.0 301.8 295.3 343.9 15.38 2 950 501 22.3 18.4 79 3.9 19.6 184 68 299.8 302.4 294.6 341.3 14.19

Sea breeze front storms firing near Plainview.

Our marine heatwave continues with SSTs near 80°. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1450 76 70/ 2/ 4 1014.1 2/14 20 S Fire Island 1450 80 60/ 4/ 4 1014.1 3/13 Great South Bay 1430 80 CALM / 2 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1450 75 78 350/ 6/ 8 1014.3 3/13 15 E Barnegat Li 1426 79 N/A 3/13 Hudson Canyon 1450 79 1015.9 3/

In addition to all the heat and dew point records in July, Newark recorded its wettest July. It was also the wettest month at Newark to average over 80°. So this gives new meaning to warm and wet. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temperature 1 2020 11.17 80.8 2 1988 9.98 80.4 3 1984 8.65 76.5 4 2004 8.39 75.0 5 1996 8.27 73.8 6 1975 8.02 76.9 7 1938 7.96 75.5 8 1961 7.95 77.3 9 1967 7.53 74.2 10 1969 7.11 74.2 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Total Precipitation 1 2011 82.7 2.04 2 1993 82.5 2.15 3 2010 82.3 1.93 4 1994 81.9 3.57 5 2013 80.9 3.74 6 2020 80.8 11.17 - 2012 80.8 2.27 - 1999 80.8 1.01 7 2019 80.6 6.82 8 1955 80.5 1.14 9 1988 80.4 9.98 10 2002 80.0 1.19

The record breaking high dew point pattern continues into early August. This is the first 5 consecutive years with 10 or more 75° or higher dew point days at one of our stations. Sunday is on track for day 11 this year at JFK as dew points surge into the upper 70s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Updated for July 2020. 7....2020...EWR...5...NYC...7...LGA...1.....JFK...4...BDR....1...ISP....4

Too bad those vendors don’t provide the ECMWF bias corrected MOS like they do in Europe. https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/met_application_mosmix/met_application_mosmix.html https://www.europeandataportal.eu/data/datasets/de-dwd-mosmix-m552?locale=en DWD’s fully automatic MOSMIX product optimizes and interprets the forecast calculations of the NWP models ICON (DWD) and IFS (ECMWF), combines these and calculates statistically optimized weather forecasts in terms of point forecasts (PFCs). Thus, statistically corrected, updated forecasts for the next ten days are calculated for about 5400 locations around the world. Most forecasting locations are spread over Germany and Europe. MOSMIX forecasts (PFCs) include nearly all common meteorological parameters measured by weather stations. For further information please refer to: [in German: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/met_verfahren_mosmix/met_verfahren_mosmix.html ] [in English: https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/met_application_mosmix/met_application_mosmix.html ]

He needs to apply post processing to remove the ECMWF overestimation bias of the wind gusts. If he can’t, then he probably shouldn’t post those wind gust maps for the general public. It’s something that they have worked out in Europe. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2014/13777-improving-wind-gust-and-precipitation-form-forecasts-post-processing-ecmwf-data.pdf ECMWF model overestimates wind gusts Forecaster data is based on ECMWF model output => postprocessing removes or decreases the positive bias (NOTE: ECMWF data is a 3-hourly maximum wind gust)

There are two things that are usually off with the Euro products from weather.us, weathermodels.com, and weatherbell model maps. The wind gusts are almost always too high compared other guidance. The other guidance gust products seem closer to what you would expect from the soundings. The other issue is that those maps unrealistically drop NYC temperatures with snow cover during the winter. We can remember all those false -10 to -15 readings for NYC several winters back. It would probably be helpful to have someone here that works for ECMWF and ask them about these issues directly. Whether it’s an issue with the model or how some venders process the data.

Here it is...