bluewave

70+ gusts moving into Southern NJ now.

Wind gust to 79 mph in Delaware.

JFK is sustained at 36 and gusting to 51 mph.

Winds beginning to pick up around the area now. Sustained at 31 and gusting to 44 mph at JFK. Strongest winds expected this afternoon.

The record GOM SST’s are also boosting the energy available to this system.

The Euro and the GFS MOS both have sustained winds near the coast around 50 mph. So the gradient alone would produce gusts from 60-70 mph. The Euro has a low topped convection which could mix down 70+.

When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+.

Pretty impressive to see the NAM wind gust guidance come in at 70 mph or higher.

Good model agreement on a near record April LLJ for Monday. Short term meso models should provide guidance on how much convection is able to develop. Stronger convection would mix down a portion of these winds from aloft. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off By 18Z Monday guidance shows a southerly 850 mb LLJ of 90-100kts! GEFS ensemble guidance shows v (southerly) component of the jet at 5-6 standard deviations above normal.

Portions of Maine set a new April low pressure record.

Just had a few snowflakes here in SW Suffolk.

Interior portions of the area could see a wet snow squall tonight. Midlevel lapse rates will be near record levels for April.

Some of the highest gusts reported right along the Jersey Shore.

The -NAO/-EPO limited the maximum temperature potential. So the high temperature couldn’t make it to 80 like other recent years. But the -PNA and warming climate gave us the warm departure. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 10 Missing Count 2020-04-10 68 3 2019-04-10 80 0 2018-04-10 64 0 2017-04-10 82 0 2016-04-10 80 0 2015-04-10 68 0 2014-04-10 67 0 2013-04-10 85 0 2012-04-10 71 0 2011-04-10 70 0 2010-04-10 92 0

Near record April low moving through the Northeast next several days. It will snow over higher elevation and far enough north regions. Our area could see strong storms tomorrow followed by a freeze in the usually colder spots this weekend.

Made it to 63 degrees before the sea breeze arrived.

I hope that you get better soon.

The -EPO takes over once the -NAO weakens. So we get a trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast. The MJO VP anomalies support this general pattern.

Yeah, the MJO supports a trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast around that time.

Good to see the sun come out with temperatures near 60 this afternoon.

It’s been the pattern since 2012 to get a big spring -NAO drop following a +NAO winter. 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 0.31 -0.92 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 0.73 0.15 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 0.38 -0.77 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 1.73 -1.91 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 0.47 -2.62 2020 1.34

Getting some breaks of sun between the rain bands moving through.

All-time record high pressure at1070 mb in Northern Canada today.

Winds coming in above guidance with the big offshore storm. Looks like we get some rain on Friday as the storm loops back toward the coast. Kennedy Intl FAIR 48 31 51 NW29G40 29