bluewave

LGA did it in 2001-2002. 2001-2002 44.6 40.4 40.8 41.9

The GEFS cold bias has actually been worse than the GFS OP this winter. https://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

You wonder how things would have gone had they chosen MPAS instead.

The GFS finished last behind the number 1 Euro and EPS due to its extreme cold bias. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

If the rate of warming since 1980 continues, then we are on track for +1.5 C of warming around 2035.

Looks like we narrowly edged out 1990 for most positive February AO on record. Hopefully, a lingering +AO and related SST warmth off the East Coast results in fewer backdoor cold fronts than average for spring. The one caveat would be an AO reversal before the spring ends leading to more backdoors like last spring. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table 2020 2.419 3.417 1990 1.001 3.402

Our first possible thunderstorms of spring are on track for tonight.

This is the first two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a cat 1 Nesis snowstorm. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

If NYC can hold the low of 50 degrees so far, then it will be a new record warm minimum temperature for March 3rd. The average low is still just 32 degrees. It will probably come down to the timing of the convection and frontal passage tonight. So March is getting off to a more springlike start for a change. 3/3 48 in 1991 47 in 2004 47 in 1878 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Same old story of the fast northern stream suppressing the southern stream. Notice how the jet hitting the PAC NW knocks down the ridge out west too quickly. With a raging +AO, we would have needed substantial help from the Pacific.

Even a temperature departure closer to 2016 or 2010 would be impressive. March...EWR...NYC...LGA 2019.....-1.2...-0.8...-1.0 2018.....-1.7...-2.4...-1.4 2017.....-2.3...-3.3...-1.2 2016...+7.0...+6.4...+6.8 2015....-4.4...-4.4....-4.3 2014....-4.3...-4.8....-5.1 2013....-1.8...-2.4....-1.7 2012...+9.2..+8.4...+8.6 2011...+1.5...-0.2....-0.3 2010...+6.1..+5.7....+5.8

Progressive split flow patterns need a robust enough southern stream UL so the Great Lakes UL doesn’t suppress it.

A faster phase may come down to a stronger southern stream UL like the NAM has.

The EPS continues the warm March theme.

While the NAM is still outside its best range, looks like it wants to phase a little faster than the 0z Euro.

Even though there won’t be any cold to start the storm, it would be nice to see a change to wet snow before the storm ends. Hard to believe it has been 2 years since a deep low passed within 150 miles of the benchmark. It will be interesting to see if the 2 year cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression storm track pattern is starting to relax But we’ll have to wait until next winter since this could just be the March wavelengths at work.

Models continuing with the warmer than recent Marches theme.

Updated for top 10 warmth in February 2020. 2....2020...EWR...6...NYC...6...LGA....8...JFK...4...BDR...5....iSP...3

After the top 2 warmest Februaries on record in 2017 and 2018, 2020 was another top 10 warmest finish. There have been 7 out of 11 warmer than normal Februaries since 2010. .............EWR....NYC....LGA 2020.....+5.4...+4.8...+4.6 2019....+1.4.....+0.9...+0.5 2018....+6.8....+6.7.....+7.1 2017....+7.0....+6.3.....+7.5 2016....+2.5....+2.4.....+3.1 2015....-12.0...-11.4....-11.1 2014....-4.7.....-3.7.....-4.0 2013....-0.5.....-1.4.....-0.8 2012....+5.9....+5.6....+6.1 2011....+1.8.....+0.7.....+1.2 2010....-1.4......-2.2......-1.5

Even during our 50 degree December 2015, we found a way to get a T near the end of the month. So it shows how difficult it would be to go a whole winter without at least a T. Philly finished 72-73 with just a T. Same here. Saw some flakes on the Long Beach cam.

Snowing along the South Shore.

Imagine if some areas got their first February snow on leap day. Most of the time this would have been March 1st.