bluewave

Looks like the all or nothing rainfall pattern since September 10th will continue. 3”+ deluges on September 10th and 30th with a dry pattern in the middle. So it may be a while before our next big rainfall event.

Much cooler pattern to start October than last year. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 553 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2019 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 86 SET IN 2013...AND THE OLD MONTHLY RECORD OF 93 SET ON OCTOBER 5 1941. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 549 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2019 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT KENNEDY NY... A RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 85 SET IN 2013...AND THE OLD MONTHLY RECORD OF 90 SET ON OCTOBER 8 2007. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 551 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2019 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 87 SET IN 2002...AND THE OLD MONTHLY RECORD OF 93 SET ON OCTOBER 5 1941.

We will need to see a significant increase in public-private partnerships in order to make an energy transition possible. https://www.ecowatch.com/high-powered-public-private-partnerships-essential-to-expediting-renew-1882132714.html Public-private partnerships have been around since the start of the U.S. and exist at all levels of government. Basic science and technology has historically been funded by the U.S. government and taken place in national and university laboratories. When the technologies matured, some were released for commercial use. Perhaps the best example is the personal computer, which has shrunk significantly in size since the 1970s and has dramatically increased in computing power. A product used by billions of people worldwide began as an investment by the U.S. federal government, in order to develop better missile guidance systems for the U.S. Department of Defense and smaller on-board computers for NASA's space program. At some point, technology will take over. Fossil fuels will eventually be driven from the marketplace by something better and cheaper, but we first need the investment in basic and applied research to make that happen. The transition from an economy based on the one-time use of finite resources to one that relies on renewable resources requires a sophisticated, high-powered public-private partnership. The commitments made by Gates and the White House are a good start and there are many other signs that the transition from fossil fuels has begun. The speed of that transition, however, will depend on creativity, consensus and cash to be completed.

The North Atlantic Jet is also making headlines.

Hopefully, the coming EPS upgrade makes a lasting improvement.

I wouldn’t mind if the modeling centers stopped posting the OP runs after120 hrs. We would probably be better off with just ensemble means after day 5. These longer range OP runs seem to be taken too literally and then we get the big disappointment posts. It also doesn’t help during the cold season when the longer range OP snowfall maps get posted on social media. That the kind of thing that lowers peoples confidence in weather forecasts. But it could be easily avoided with more of a reliance on ensemble means.

Steadily rising September temperatures brought the recent 10 year period to a 70.3° average in NYC. September has shown the fastest monthly temperature rise for much of the East. So expect a significant monthly average temperature increase when the new 30 year climate normals come out. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season Mean 70.3 70.3 2020 68.8 68.8 2019 70.4 70.4 2018 70.7 70.7 2017 70.5 70.5 2016 71.8 71.8 2015 74.5 74.5 2014 69.7 69.7 2013 67.9 67.9 2012 68.8 68.8 2011 70.0 70.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season Mean 69.2 69.2 2010 71.1 71.1 2009 66.3 66.3 2008 68.8 68.8 2007 70.3 70.3 2006 66.6 66.6 2005 73.3 73.3 2004 69.3 69.3 2003 67.9 67.9 2002 70.2 70.2 2001 67.7 67.7 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season Mean 67.8 67.8 2000 66.0 66.0 1999 69.0 69.0 1998 70.2 70.2 1997 67.0 67.0 1996 68.0 68.0 1995 68.3 68.3 1994 67.6 67.6 1993 67.3 67.3 1992 67.2 67.2 1991 67.5 67.5

Heaviest rains in the interior and strongest measured winds along the coast. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202009301439 ...Rockland County... Sloatsburg 3.88 815 AM 9/30 CWOP Suffolk County... West Gilgo Beach 64 445 AM 9/30 CWOP

Updated for the 3.88 in Sloatsburg, NY. Rockland County... Sloatsburg 3.88 815 AM 9/30 CWOP

Record 7th consecutive September above 70° at LGA. The NYC and EWR version of this is 7 consecutive years above 68°. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season 2020 71.2 71.2 2019 72.1 72.1 2018 72.8 72.8 2017 71.5 71.5 2016 73.8 73.8 2015 74.1 74.1 2014 70.4 70.4 2013 68.1 68.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season 2020 68.9 68.9 2019 70.4 70.4 2018 70.7 70.7 2017 70.5 70.5 2016 71.8 71.8 2015 74.5 74.5 2014 69.7 69.7 2013 67.9 67.9 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season 2020 69.2 69.2 2019 70.8 70.8 2018 71.4 71.4 2017 70.9 70.9 2016 71.8 71.8 2015 73.4 73.4 2014 69.8 69.8 2013 67.2 67.2

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05978-1 Ocean heatwaves will become more frequent and extreme as the climate warms, scientists report1 on 15 August in Nature. These episodes of intense heat could disrupt marine food webs and reshape biodiversity in the world’s oceans. Scientists analysed satellite-based measurements of sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2016 and found that the frequency of marine heatwaves had doubled. These extreme heat events in the ocean's surface waters can last from days to months and can occur across thousands of kilometres. If average global temperatures increase to 3.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, as researchers currently project, the frequency of ocean heatwaves could increase by a factor of 41. In other words, a 1-in-100-day event at pre-industrial levels of warming could become a 1-in-3-day event. Marine heatwaves have already become more long-lasting, frequent, intense and extensive than in the past,” says lead study author Thomas Frölicher, a climatologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland. He adds that these changes are already well outside what could be expected on the basis of natural swings in Earth’s climate: the study’s analysis determined that 87% of heatwaves in the ocean are the result of human-induced global warming. Going global Scientists have studied heatwaves on land for decades. But it wasn’t until researchers faced episodes of extreme heat in the ocean in the past several years that they started paying more attention to the issue at sea. Those episodes included the massive warm water ‘blob’ in the northeastern Pacific Ocean that killed off sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Alaska and sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in California, and disrupted fisheries off North America from 2014 to 2015. They also included the massive 2015–16 El Niño that ravaged coral reefs around the world. The emphasis on marine heatwaves is really motivated by the recognition that the same kinds of extremes can happen in the ocean as on land,” says Noah Diffenbaugh, a climatologist at Stanford University in California. He adds that this latest study takes global perspective on these regional issues. The study provides a useful framework for disentangling short-term temperature spikes from long-term warming trends in the oceans, says Kris Karnauskas, a physical oceanographer at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. He says that marine heatwaves could be the result of natural temperature swings that become more extreme owing to a warming ocean. Or they could be a signal that global warming is changing how the ocean functions — thus altering the likelihood and intensity of marine warming events. Frölicher says current models suggest that more frequent and intense ocean heatwaves are largely a result of warming oceans. And now, he and his team are working to develop models that can explore marine heatwave trends and their ecological impacts at local and regional levels. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0383-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z#ref-CR7 Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.

The Central Arctic continues to set records for low extent as we get close to the beginning of October.

64th day this year at JFK with a 70° or higher dew point. This brings JFK into 4th place. The top 4 years were all since 2016. Kennedy Intl LGT RAIN 72 70

Looking like our first year with 30 or more 90° days and none in the spring or fall. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2010 0 0 0 1 2 12 18 11 4 0 0 0 48 2018 0 0 0 0 4 4 10 16 4 0 0 0 38 2002 0 0 0 2 0 5 14 13 1 0 0 0 35 2020 0 0 0 0 0 5 19 10 0 M M M 34 1991 0 0 0 0 4 9 10 9 2 0 0 0 34 2016 0 0 0 0 3 1 15 10 3 0 0 0 32 1983 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 8 7 0 0 0 31 2005 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 10 3 0 0 0 30 1953 0 0 0 0 1 7 10 9 3 0 0 0 30

Within the last few days. Looks like it’s part of their big upgrade. https://eccc-msc.github.io/open-data/msc-data/changelog_multisystems_en/#tuesday-january-21-2020 A major project to migrate to a new supercomputing infrastructure employed by the Meteorological Service of Canada was completed on January 21, 2020. This successful migration was the result of a joint, sustained effort over several months by experts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, Science and Technology Directorate, and Shared Services Canada. Over the coming years, this important upgrade will permit further technological transfers from Research and Development into Operations, supporting the continuous improvement of the meteorological and environmental forecast services offered to Canadians and to other federal and provincial government agencies, users, and partners. The official note announcing the migration is available at this lin

Another example of these abrupt precipitation shifts that many areas are experiencing. Very challenging time to be in the agricultural industry. We can swing from one extreme to another.

Very unusual rainfall distribution this month. Portions of Long Island experienced one of their wettest starts to September. This was followed by record dry conditions since then. Heavy rains to end the month will only add to the oddity. 9-10....Pt Lookout....6.47.....Massapequa....5.41...Wantagh Mesonet...4.64....Amityville....4.04....Copaigue....4.05 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 11 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 1910-09-26 0.00 0 - 1908-09-26 0.00 0 - 1884-09-26 0.00 0 2 2020-09-26 T 0 - 1941-09-26 T 0 - 1917-09-26 T 0

Hartford is hoping for their first 1”+ rain event since late April.

Cool departures should turn warm as we continue the warmer September pattern.

This was their driest ever 05-01 to 9-25. Time Series Summary for Hartford Area, CT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 1 to Sep 25 Missing Count 1 2020-09-25 6.98 0 2 1964-09-25 8.35 0 3 1957-09-25 8.82 0 4 1965-09-25 9.45 0 5 1914-09-25 10.79 0

Maybe the wetter Euro and UKMET further east will work out for them. I guess it comes down to how much of a phase we get between the two pieces of energy.

The New England crew is probably happy that this is a rainfall departure and not snowfall.