bluewave

65 DBZ hailer near Old Westbury.

Looks like EWR may have just done it if the meso west site is correct. 15:07 90.0

So far it looks like both highs are at 89 degrees.

Maybe some small hail north of Fort Lee.

Maybe the warm spots can sneak in a first 90 today if the scattered convection waits until later in the afternoon. Already 77 at EWR and LGA. But we have seen clouds and convection interfere with our maximum temperature potential recently.

First look at the new Jan-May 1991-2020 climate normals.

The lingering spring blocking kept the strongest instability and heat just to our south this week. Areas around DC and Baltimore had record heat in the mid 90s. Looks like the Cristobal near record ET through the Great Lakes will help to maintain the blocking pattern into mid-June.

Be interesting to see if the Christobal ET can set the new record lowest pressure in Wisconsin for June. It could cause a wave breaking event that results in a cooler pattern here in mid-June.

Every 80+ degree day since the beginning of May has had either a T or measurable rain. Plenty of clouds and moisture accompanying our warm ups. Local sea breezes and onshore flow has also been a factor in reducing our high temperature potential.

June derecho climatology is to our south like in 2012. But the tracks shift more to the north as the season goes on. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0256.1

Areas west of the sea breeze in NJ could see 90 degrees getting further north tomorrow.

The big -NAO and 50/50 low kept the MCS and and warmest temperatures just to our south today.

Pretty impressive warm surge into SNJ ahead of the MCS.

The HRRR has a pretty good initialization of the storms in CPA. It races the storms ESE with the northern edge to around NYC.

It looks like the MCS the models have for tomorrow originates over the Upper Midwest tonight.

Yeah, it will depend on the amount clouds and wind direction at the time. But that could be another window to watch if we can get some sun and SW flow.

Yeah, there is record SST warmth across the entire IO. This correlates to the strongest ridging and warmth staying to our west during the summer.

Maybe the North Atlantic SST and 500mb patterns are reinforcing each other.

If all the clouds and convection prevent a first 90 for the warm spots this week, then it may be a while longer. EPS indicating a potential blocking pattern emerging in about 8-10 days. So places like Newark could see a very late first 90 this year if clouds and convection win out this week.

Some parts of the region could see their first 90 on Wednesday if the convection waits until the afternoon like the Euro. But a faster arrival with more morning clouds would mean slightly cooler maxes than the Euro. The amount of daytime heating will also determine the severity of the storms.

The general signal of convection firing over the Great Lakes and racing ESE is pretty easy for the models to spot. But the timing and intensity usually have to wait until the short term. How much do we destabilize before the storms arrive and will any debris clouds be a factor?

Models hinting at our first MCS of the season on Wednesday. Decent looking EML as the midlevel lapse rates continue to overperform this year.

Impressive radiational cooling for June 1st. Islip just missed the record low of 42 by 2 degrees. 01 Jun 7:56 am 56 38 51 N 13 10.00 FEW250 30.12 1023.8 30.23 44 Almanac for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY June 1, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 72 90 in 1988 57 in 2015 Min Temperature M 55 69 in 1987 42 in 2009 Avg Temperature M 63.8 78.0 in 1987 52.5 in 2009

6th lowest number of days to reach 70 this spring at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 1940 13 0 2 1967 14 0 3 1966 15 0 4 2003 16 0 5 1997 17 0 - 1950 17 0 6 2020 18 0 - 1973 18 0 - 1968 18 0 - 1956 18 0