bluewave

We are getting our strong spring -NAO pattern. This has been a common feature in recent years following the record winter +AO./+NAO. Records for high pressure have been set over Northern Canada.

The cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks have dominated last few years.

Yeah, the warm sun felt nice today. The ocean storm to our SE is beginning to take on some subtropical characteristics. Looks like it will be pretty windy the next few days especially out toward Eastern LI and Cape Cod.

Getting more sun today than yesterday. Strong ocean storm is moving SE of the area under the big -NAO block.

Yeah, we can see above normal summer temperatures during a -NAO. It looks like parts of Northern Canada could approach record high pressures this week with the -NAO. Models have been showing high pressure getting above 1060 MB this week.

Very Impressive +5SD block near Greenland. Typical spring -NAO temperature pattern. Cool inshore flow here with 80’s over the Mid-Atlantic.

High temperatures usually beat guidance on these dry and sunny downslope flow days. Newark Liberty FAIR 68 26 20 NW12

Just like today. NYC TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 45 258 PM 79 1963 53 -8 56 MINIMUM 40 433 AM 13 1878 38 2 42 AVERAGE 43 45 -2 49

Yeah, looks like a wetter pattern with the lows tracking between the SE Ridge and Greenland Block.

This will be the first time in a while that the Greenland Block is more dominant than the SE Ridge. While it’s not a cold pattern, it will be less warm than the month has been to date.

Plenty of easterly flow the next 5 days as the New England high remains in place. Maybe we can sneak in a warmer day beyond that if the SE Ridge can flex.

It’s been a while since we had a +5SD block near Greenland.

The PV decays when the sunlight returns to the Arctic in the spring.

Yeah, back door pattern setting up with plenty of high pressure over New England.

The 80 on Friday was probably the warmest of the month. MJO 2-3 and -NAO should keep the warmest temperatures to our south. The interior continues to be the place to be for snows like we seen the last few winters.

Stronger winds caused by the persistent +NAO/+AO pattern since 2013. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14474-y Abstract The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the climate system because it carries heat and carbon northward, and from the surface to the deep ocean. The high salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic is a prerequisite for overturning circulation, and strong freshening could herald a slowdown. We show that the eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a magnitude never seen before in 120 years of measurements. The cause was unusual winter wind patterns driving major changes in ocean circulation, including slowing of the North Atlantic Current and diversion of Arctic freshwater from the western boundary into the eastern basins. We find that wind-driven routing of Arctic-origin freshwater intimately links conditions on the North West Atlantic shelf and slope region with the eastern subpolar basins. This reveals the importance of atmospheric forcing of intra-basin circulation in determining the salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic. Finally we note that during this period, anomalously strong surface winter heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere, and the subsequent deep winter mixing contributed to the development of an extreme cold anomaly north of the NAC in the central SPNA53,54.

Big further into the interior around places like Albany. https://www.weather.gov/aly/1-3Dec2019Snow

While that North Atlantic cold pool has been a dominant feature since 2013, it really stands out now due to the record +AO pattern.

It’s all about the context. We have been stuck in a cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm track for the last two years. So the storm on Monday will hug the coast. Root for the high to hold on long enough so even the coast can see a few wet snow flakes. But the interior continues to be favored for the best. We can all remember the big interior snowfall totals in early December with the MJO 2 passage at the time.

Interior areas look like they are best positioned to cash in on the MJO 2-4 next week.

5th warmest March so far in NYC between 2016 and 2010. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 51.1 0 2 2012 50.9 0 3 1946 49.8 0 4 2016 48.9 0 5 2020 48.8 11 6 1921 48.4 0 7 2010 48.2 0

I hope everyone is well. Picked up close to 1.00”of rain here in SW Suffolk.

It really does. The dewpoints will take another big drop with the near record March high pressure in a few days.

Had a brief heavy downpour and .35 total rainfall. Pretty typical for 2020. Looks like a warm afternoon coming up.

Some heavier rain for a change this morning.