bluewave

Maybe it’s related to the record WPAC warm pool? I read some papers on how the anomalous ridging near the West Coast since 2013 could be related to the record SSTs in the Tropical WPAC. Then there were other papers that suggest a link between the record Pacific basin SSTs and the low Arctic sea ice.

Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines. You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years.

Yeah, looks like the vortex will verify over Greenland instead of Alaska. New run Old run

Yeah, we get 2 decent cold shots before the big NAO reversal and moderating temperatures.

NAM is 2”+ of heavy rainfall with some wet flakes mixing in at the very end.

Cloudiness is running well above average for October like recent years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2020&month=10&dpi=100&_fmt=png

May 9th to October 30th would be the new record for fewest days between 2 different seasonal traces of snow in the same year.

Yeah, the SE Ridge is slightly weaker than 24 hours ago in the forecasts. So the the phase is a little slower with 2 more distinct areas of low pressure. We could still see our first flakes of the season. New run old run

Maybe someone can do a formal reanalysis on the Dec 94 event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor'easter

We can add the 2008 elevation event to the list along with the TS Philippe absorption /phase in 2017. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201710301800 Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-10-30-northeast-storm-damaging-winds-flooding PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 745 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT NEW JERSEY ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... POMONA T 250 PM 10/28 ACY INTL AIPRORT ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... MOUNT HOLLY 0.1 245 PM 10/28 NWS OFFICE CROSSWICKS T 1048 AM 10/28 MOUNT LAUREL T 420 PM 10/28 ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... LEBANON 12.0 500 PM 10/28 950 FT CHERRYVILLE 5.0 400 PM 10/28 HIGH BRIDGE 2.4 130 PM 10/28 CLINTON 1.7 300 PM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 825 AM 10/28 FLEMINGTON T 420 PM 10/28 ...MERCER COUNTY... HOPEWELL 2.5 425 PM 10/28 EAST WINDSOR T 1030 AM 10/28 EWING T 915 AM 10/28 HAMILTON SQUARE T 1032 AM 10/28 MERCERVILLE T 1052 AM 10/28 PRINCETON T 900 AM 10/28 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... NEW BRUNSWICK 1.5 130 PM 10/28 EDISON 1.0 1130 AM 10/28 ...MORRIS COUNTY... MOUNT OLIVE 11.5 520 PM 10/28 AT 1000 FEET LONG VALLEY 8.0 420 PM 10/28 AT 1200 FEET FLANDERS 5.5 730 PM 10/28 LAKE HOPATCONG 3.0 730 PM 10/28 MOUNT OLIVE 3.0 130 PM 10/28 BUTLER T 730 PM 10/28 ...OCEAN COUNTY... TOMS RIVER T 100 PM 10/28 ...SOMERSET COUNTY... HILLSBOROUGH 1.2 130 PM 10/28 PEAPACK 1.0 1117 AM 10/28 BRIDGEWATER 0.3 130 PM 10/28 BEDMINSTER T 1045 AM 10/28 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... HIGH POINT STATE 14.0 400 PM 10/28 WANTAGE 4.5 420 PM 10/28 AT 1020 FEET BARRY LAKES 3.0 725 PM 10/28 NEWTON 2.5 730 PM 10/28 SPARTA 2.0 725 PM 10/28 UP TO 5 HIGHER TRRN LAFAYETTE 0.5 130 PM 10/28 ...WARREN COUNTY... HACKETTSTOWN 4.8 420 PM 10/28 HACKETTSTOWN 4.0 645 PM 10/28 ALLAMUCHY 3.0 1105 AM 10/28 BLAIRSTOWN 0.5 730 PM 10/28 STEWARTSVILLE T 420 PM 10/28 PENNSYLVANIA ...BUCKS COUNTY... JAMISON 3.0 230 PM 10/28 CHALFONT 2.0 400 PM 10/28 FAIRLESS HILLS 1.5 736 PM 10/28 FURLONG 1.2 230 PM 10/28 DOYLESTOWN 1.0 130 PM 10/28 LANGHORNE 0.8 230 PM 10/28 BENSALEM 0.5 230 PM 10/28 LEVITTOWN T 1040 AM 10/28 SPRINGTOWN T 720 AM 10/28 ...CARBON COUNTY... ALBRIGHTSVILLE 6.0 1115 AM 10/28 ELEV. AROUND 1700 FEET JIM THORPE T 700 AM 10/28 PALMERTON T 700 AM 10/28 ...MONROE COUNTY... TOBYHANNA 16.0 700 PM 10/28 POWER OUTAGES POCONO SUMMIT 4.5 1100 AM 10/28 ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... MONTGOMERYVILLE 2.0 420 PM 10/28 SOUDERTON 1.5 1140 AM 10/28 WILLOW GROVE T 700 AM 10/28 ...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... PHILADELPHIA T 1124 AM 10/28 N

Quicker phase on the 12z Euro. Plenty of heavy rain and wind ending as snow. Then a freeze as the 980s class low pulls away.

That’s it. The 12z UKMET also has an earlier phase close to the coast. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

May 1977 was the last time.

A very early first flakes of the season would match our recent years experience. 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 were all defined by the snowfall which occurred outside DJF met winter. The most impressive snowfall records were in the fall and spring. March and April 2018 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2018 31.9 0 2 1967 23.3 1 3 2015 19.7 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1982 16.0 0 2 1996 9.6 0 3 2018 4.6 0 November 2018 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1898 19.0 0 2 1882 14.0 0 3 1938 12.8 0 4 2018 6.4 0 March 2019 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1967 21.8 0 2 1956 19.4 0 3 2015 18.6 0 - 2001 18.6 0 4 2005 18.5 0 5 2018 14.5 0 6 1993 13.7 0 7 2019 13.5 0 May 2020 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2020 T 0 - 1995 T 0 - 1977 T 0 - 1956 T 0 - 1946 T 0

Also root for the new parallel GFS if you want a stronger phase and early season first flakes potential. A weakness of the current GFS OP is that it has a weak bias with the SE Ridge. The stronger SE Ridge on the parallel GFS and Euro allow a quicker phase closer to the coast.

It would be the shortest duration between a T at the end of a snowfall season and T the beginning of the next. Getting a T on May 9th and also in late October in the same year would be a new record. So it will be interesting to see if could at least see a T with the storm.

Montana is one of the few spots able to set notable cold records.

October has been the most reliably negative AO month of the last 20 years.

While the US has become used to record October snowfalls in this low sea ice era, this year is in a class by itself. Seems to have started right around 2006 with the historic early Buffalo October LES Snowstorm. Then NNJ had the record early snows at the end of October 2008. Followed by the NYC record early snowstorm at the end of October 2011. There have been numerous record early October shows since then mainly across the Rockies and Midwest like this year so far. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

The Euro finally came north with the heavy rain potential from Zeta later in the week.This is followed by possibly the first 30s of the season for NYC around the end of the month. Then temperatures quickly warm across the US to start November.

Meteostar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KSYR I just saw them. The control and other members are more amped than the OP. Even if the low ends up hugging, it would be nice to see see a southern stream low phase or not get suppressed.

This will be a nice test to see if the primary storm tracks that have been locked in last few years can show more variation. The last 2 cold seasons were dominated by cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. The models have a SW bowling ball closed low that ejects to the east next week. At the same time, we have very strong PAC Jet along the Northern Tier. So it will be interesting to see if this low can run far enough north for a significant event here or it gets suppressed south like the 12z Euro. Benchmark track lows have been a rarity here since March 2018 ended.

Record high temperatures today well away from the marine influence. Pretty impressive for Syracuse to reach 80° in late October. Almanac for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY October 23, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 57 77 in 1991 34 in 1969

The sun just came out here in SW Suffolk.