bluewave

We would probably need to grow a lot of corn to ever have a shot at a 90° dew point here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/15/corn-sweat-may-exacerbate-heat-impacts-midwest-this-weekend/

That’s just some bad data that slipped in there. The US record is close to that. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-dew-point-temperatures.html

Our most recent stuck weather pattern.

New 5pm August record high dew point of 78°at POU. Poughkeepsie PTSUNNY 84 78 82 VRB3

New August hourly record high to go with all the records we had back in July.

The high dew points are allowing the HX to reach 100°. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 88 76 67 SE12 29.86F HX 99 Teterboro Arpt MOSUNNY 89 76 65 S14 29.85F HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 86 75 70 S13 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 84 75 74 S16 N/A HX 92 Breezy Point N/A 79 N/A N/A S14 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 82 75 78 SE14 N/A Staten Island N/A 88 77 70 SE7 N/A HX 100

The interaction or partial phase with the UL over the GL may make for a stronger system once north of JAX.

It looks like the airport established a new all-time daily rainfall record. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KRDG&num=48 Date (EDT) Temp (F) Dew Point (F) Relative Humidity (%) Wind Direction Wind Speed (MPH) Visibility (miles) Weather Clouds Station Pressure (inches) Sea Level Pressure (mb) Altimeter Setting (inches) 1 Hour Precip (inches) 3 Hour Precip (inches) 6 Hour Precip (inches) 24 Hour Precip (inches) 6 Hr Max (F) 6 Hr Min (F) 24 Hr Max (F) 24 Hr Min (F) 02 Aug 7:54 am 75 73 94 SSE 3 10.00 OVC012 29.50 1011.7 29.87 0.02 5.65 5.70 Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation for READING REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date 1 5.64 2005-10-08 2 5.15 2010-09-30 3 4.78 1999-09-16 4 3.36 2004-09-18 5 3.23 2005-07-17

Yeah, it was a pretty extreme heavy rainfall event for that area. https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ViewDailyPrecipReport.aspx?DailyPrecipReportID=9ce9b22d-6f90-40ff-a740-1aa6d432dd31 Station Number: PA-BR-31 Station Name: Reading 2.3 NW Observation Date 8/2/2020 7:00 AM Submitted 8/02/2020 7:13 AM Total Precip Amount 5.49 in. Notes T-storms started about 3:15 a.m. on and off rain continued until 5 when it became heavy

Another high dew point front for today. Looks like mid to possibly upper 70s dew points again today.

Areas to the east of the track could see wind gusts to 60 mph or greater if these forecast soundings are correct. Models all have an intense southerly LLJ sweeping across Long Island. With SSTs near 80° and no inversion, a large portion of the LLJ could mix down. Models have a 5SD LLJ event for early August. LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1005 1 26.4 23.0 82 3.4 23.9 164 45 299.1 302.4 296.9 351.3 17.89 1 1000 44 26.1 22.1 79 4.0 23.2 166 52 299.2 302.3 296.4 348.8 17.00 2 950 494 22.2 19.9 87 2.3 20.6 170 66 299.7 302.5 295.6 345.3 15.60 LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1005 7 25.8 21.4 77 4.4 22.7 175 41 298.5 301.5 295.7 345.6 16.18 1 1000 51 25.9 20.5 72 5.4 22.1 177 49 299.0 301.8 295.3 343.9 15.38 2 950 501 22.3 18.4 79 3.9 19.6 184 68 299.8 302.4 294.6 341.3 14.19

Sea breeze front storms firing near Plainview.

Our marine heatwave continues with SSTs near 80°. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1450 76 70/ 2/ 4 1014.1 2/14 20 S Fire Island 1450 80 60/ 4/ 4 1014.1 3/13 Great South Bay 1430 80 CALM / 2 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1450 75 78 350/ 6/ 8 1014.3 3/13 15 E Barnegat Li 1426 79 N/A 3/13 Hudson Canyon 1450 79 1015.9 3/

In addition to all the heat and dew point records in July, Newark recorded its wettest July. It was also the wettest month at Newark to average over 80°. So this gives new meaning to warm and wet. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temperature 1 2020 11.17 80.8 2 1988 9.98 80.4 3 1984 8.65 76.5 4 2004 8.39 75.0 5 1996 8.27 73.8 6 1975 8.02 76.9 7 1938 7.96 75.5 8 1961 7.95 77.3 9 1967 7.53 74.2 10 1969 7.11 74.2 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Total Precipitation 1 2011 82.7 2.04 2 1993 82.5 2.15 3 2010 82.3 1.93 4 1994 81.9 3.57 5 2013 80.9 3.74 6 2020 80.8 11.17 - 2012 80.8 2.27 - 1999 80.8 1.01 7 2019 80.6 6.82 8 1955 80.5 1.14 9 1988 80.4 9.98 10 2002 80.0 1.19

The record breaking high dew point pattern continues into early August. This is the first 5 consecutive years with 10 or more 75° or higher dew point days at one of our stations. Sunday is on track for day 11 this year at JFK as dew points surge into the upper 70s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Updated for July 2020. 7....2020...EWR...5...NYC...7...LGA...1.....JFK...4...BDR....1...ISP....4

Too bad those vendors don’t provide the ECMWF bias corrected MOS like they do in Europe. https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/met_application_mosmix/met_application_mosmix.html https://www.europeandataportal.eu/data/datasets/de-dwd-mosmix-m552?locale=en DWD’s fully automatic MOSMIX product optimizes and interprets the forecast calculations of the NWP models ICON (DWD) and IFS (ECMWF), combines these and calculates statistically optimized weather forecasts in terms of point forecasts (PFCs). Thus, statistically corrected, updated forecasts for the next ten days are calculated for about 5400 locations around the world. Most forecasting locations are spread over Germany and Europe. MOSMIX forecasts (PFCs) include nearly all common meteorological parameters measured by weather stations. For further information please refer to: [in German: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/met_verfahren_mosmix/met_verfahren_mosmix.html ] [in English: https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/met_application_mosmix/met_application_mosmix.html ]

He needs to apply post processing to remove the ECMWF overestimation bias of the wind gusts. If he can’t, then he probably shouldn’t post those wind gust maps for the general public. It’s something that they have worked out in Europe. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2014/13777-improving-wind-gust-and-precipitation-form-forecasts-post-processing-ecmwf-data.pdf ECMWF model overestimates wind gusts Forecaster data is based on ECMWF model output => postprocessing removes or decreases the positive bias (NOTE: ECMWF data is a 3-hourly maximum wind gust)

There are two things that are usually off with the Euro products from weather.us, weathermodels.com, and weatherbell model maps. The wind gusts are almost always too high compared other guidance. The other guidance gust products seem closer to what you would expect from the soundings. The other issue is that those maps unrealistically drop NYC temperatures with snow cover during the winter. We can remember all those false -10 to -15 readings for NYC several winters back. It would probably be helpful to have someone here that works for ECMWF and ask them about these issues directly. Whether it’s an issue with the model or how some venders process the data.

Here it is...

UKMET did the same. So onto the 12z Euro. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

Numerous new highest low temperatures for the month of July across the region. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 1 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2008 66 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 1 - 2008 68 0 2 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 66 0 2 2020 65 1 - 2019 65 0 - 2015 65 0 - 1970 65 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2019 64 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 64 0 2 2020 63 1 - 1994 63 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 1 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 57 2 2 2019 54 1 - 2013 54 0 - 2012 54 9 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 0 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 1 2 2019 54 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2011 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0

Farmingdale set a new record for 75° or warmer July minimums. They actually had 1 more day than LGA. The magnitude of the record over the previous year was much more impressive than the new LGA 80° minimum record. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2020 15 1 2 2013 7 0 - 2010 7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2010 19 0 2 2016 17 0 - 2013 17 0 3 1999 16 0 4 2020 14 1

These may be the warmest SSTs on record south of Long Island for so early in the morning. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 0950 75 20/ 10/ 12 1009.0 3/ 6 20 S Fire Island 0950 81 50/ 16/ 19 1008.5 4/ 4 Great South Bay 0930 72 40/ 10/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 0950 72 78 360/ 17/ 21 1009.6 3/ 6 15 E Barnegat Li 0926 79 N/A 3/ 7 Hudson Canyon 0950 80

That was 1954 with Carol, Edna, and Hazel.