bluewave

Southhold gusted to 52 mph. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=sout

New Haven gusted to 69 mph. 16:10 78.0 68.2 71.2 72 43.0 69.0

91° now in Wantagh with a 96° HX. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want

Harrisburg made it to 98° with the warm downslope flow. Late afternoon high temperatures for our area as WAA keeps going into this evening. 850s peak at +18C to +20 C in a few hours. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KCXY

Yeah, it felt great. Looks like the warm front is further north today than expected. The NAM has us warming into the 90s as the flow becomes more WSW this afternoon.

Unfortunately, these rapid intensifications prior to landfall have become more common in recent years. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Highly-Unusual-Upward-Trends-Rapidly-Intensifying-Atlantic-Hurricanes-Blamed-Global-Warming It’s very sobering to see that two of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes before landfall (Michael in 2018 and Harvey in 2017) since 1950 have occurred in the past two hurricane seasons, and that a significant increase in such rapidly intensifying hurricanes is predicted by some of our top computer models. Since 1950, here are the greatest 24-hour intensification rates prior to a U.S. landfall: Since 1950, here are the greatest 24-hour intensification rates prior to a U.S. landfall: Humberto 2007 (65 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall) King 1950 (60 mph increase, Cat 4 landfall) Eloise 1975 (60 mph increase, Cat 3 landfall) Danny 1997 (50 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall) Michael 2018 (45 mph increase, Cat 5 landfall) Harvey 2017 (40 mph increase, Cat 4 landfall) Cindy 2005 (40 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall)

Today was our lowest humidity on Long Island since the end of June. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Most impressive temperature gradient of the summer tomorrow ahead of the severe threat. This will be one of the few times this year that the strongest heat won’t be found over New England. Maybe the warmest spots around the region can make another run on 95°.

Finally got a NW flow day with dew points in the low 50s. We may see the next one Sunday into Monday. Kennedy Intl PTCLDY 69 53 56 NW10

LGA gusting to 51mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KLGA

Great view from the Queens College Mesonet. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=quee

Yeah, it fits the pattern really well. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/climate-change-rule-thumb-cold-things-warming-faster-warm-things Climate change rule of thumb: cold "things" warming faster than warm things Colder places are warming faster than warmer places Colder seasons are warming faster than warmer seasons Colder times of day are warming more than warmer times of day

Yeah, looks like you were one of the cooler spots along the general I- 84 corridor. Time Series Summary for WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2005-08-24 74.7 0 2 2020-08-24 74.2 0 3 1949-08-24 73.8 0 4 1995-08-24 73.4 0 5 2016-08-24 73.1 0 6 1955-08-24 72.7 0 7 1966-08-24 72.6 0 8 2010-08-24 72.5 0 9 2019-08-24 72.3 0 10 1993-08-24 72.0 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 73.0 2 2 2005-08-24 72.5 0 3 2018-08-24 71.7 0 - 2016-08-24 71.7 1 - 2010-08-24 71.7 2 Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2005-08-24 73.3 3 2 2016-08-24 72.3 2 3 2018-08-24 72.1 0 - 2010-08-24 72.1 0 5 2002-08-24 72.0 1 - 1999-08-24 72.0 2 7 2020-08-24 71.7 7 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2005-08-24 74.5 1 2 2020-08-24 74.3 1 3 2016-08-24 74.1 0

For areas near the coast, 70° minimums are the benchmark. Further into the interior, it becomes 65°, 60°, and 55°. Numerous stations across the region are at the top for their corresponding benchmark records. Many stations have had 50 or more days reach those benchmarks. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 32 0 2 2010-08-24 31 0 - 1988-08-24 31 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 50 0 2 2010-08-24 39 2 3 2018-08-24 32 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 37 4 2 2016-08-24 34 0 3 2010-08-24 33 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2006-08-24 62 0 2 2020-08-24 61 0 3 2010-08-24 59 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 53 0 2 1908-08-24 52 0 3 1906-08-24 50 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 51 0 2 2010-08-24 50 0 - 1973-08-24 50 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 52 0 2 2019-08-24 47 1 - 2012-08-24 47 0 - 2010-08-24 47 2 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 58 2 2 2019-08-24 51 0 - 2018-08-24 51 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 64 1 2 1973-08-24 62 0 3 2005-08-24 61 1 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 63 0 2 2019-08-24 52 0 3 2018-08-24 51 0 Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2018-08-24 53 0 2 2020-08-24 49 7 - 2005-08-24 49 3 Time Series Summary for MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 67 0 2 2010-08-24 63 0 3 2005-08-24 61 1

We continue with a record number of 70° minimums from June 1st through August 24th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 53 0 2 1908-08-24 52 0 3 1906-08-24 50 0 4 2010-08-24 49 0 5 2005-08-24 47 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 51 0 2 2010-08-24 50 0 - 1973-08-24 50 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2006-08-24 62 0 2 2020-08-24 61 0 3 2010-08-24 59 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 37 4 2 2016-08-24 34 0 3 2010-08-24 33 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 50 0 2 2010-08-24 39 2 3 2018-08-24 32 0 - 2016-08-24 32 1 - 2015-08-24 32 0 - 2002-08-24 32 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24 Missing Count 1 2020-08-24 32 0 2 2010-08-24 31 0 - 1988-08-24 31 0

The smoke arrives tomorrow from the record Western US wildfires. But much of it should remain aloft creating hazy conditions. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_smoke_jet&domain=full&run_time=24+Aug+2020+-+19Z

LGA moves into 5th place for the most 90° days. BDL is currently in 1st place tied with 1983. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 2020 32 129 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2020 38 130 - 1983 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2010 34 0 - 1965 34 0 5 2018 32 0

It took until the end of the month for the Pacific to finally become favorable. The models were showing fantasy day 6-10 snows for much of December before Boxing Day delivered. The record -AO/-NAO streak from June 2009 to January 2011 may be tough to replicate. But who knows with all the weather and climate extremes since then.

Numerous stations around the Northeast are having their warmest summer through August 23rd. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 79.5 0 2 2010-08-23 79.4 0 3 2016-08-23 78.5 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 75.3 4 2 2016-08-23 75.2 0 - 2010-08-23 75.2 0 3 2019-08-23 74.5 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 74.9 0 2 2019-08-23 74.1 0 - 2005-08-23 74.1 0 3 2010-08-23 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 72.8 0 2 1949-08-23 72.4 0 3 1995-08-23 72.2 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 67.7 0 2 1995-08-23 66.5 0 - 1970-08-23 66.5 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 75.0 0 2 2018-08-23 73.5 2 3 2019-08-23 73.1 0

It could be the 5th La Niña-like winter in a row for us. The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17. The SE Ridge was a big player for us last 4 winters. La Niña winter snowfall is usually determined by whether NYC gets 3” of snow in December or not. So we should get an early idea of seasonal snowfall potential. Every La Niña-like snowfall season since 95-96 with under 3” in December turned out below normal like the last 2 winters. All the 3”+ Decembers featured above normal seasonal snowfall. Even the mild La Niña winters like 17-18, 16-17 and 05-06 did well in the snowfall department. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6

Another day of 70° minimums across the area. This puts many of our stations in 1st place from June 1st to August 23rd. White Plains set the new record for 65° minimums. POU to our north has the new record for 60° lows. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2010-08-23 50 0 - 1973-08-23 50 0 2020-08-23 50 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 1908-08-23 52 0 2 2020-08-23 52 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2006-08-23 61 0 2 2020-08-23 60 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 36 4 2 2016-08-23 34 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2010-08-23 31 0 - 1988-08-23 31 0 2020-08-23 31 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 51 1 2 2019-08-23 47 1 - 2010-08-23 47 2 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 63 1 - 1973-08-23 62 0

BDL reached 93° today. So they are just 1 short of their all time 90° day record of 38 days in 1983. Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 1983 38 0 2 2020 37 132 3 2002 35 0 4 2010 34 0 - 1965 34 0 5 2018 32 0 - 1966 32 0 6 2016 31 0 - 1991 31 0 - 1949 31 3 7 1988 30 0 - 1973 30 0 8 2005 29 0 9 1999 28 0 10 2019 27 0

I agree that the MYI loss is the big story. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2817/with-thick-ice-gone-arctic-sea-ice-changes-more-slowly/ With thick ice gone, Arctic sea ice changes more slowly The Arctic Ocean's blanket of sea ice has changed since 1958 from predominantly older, thicker ice to mostly younger, thinner ice, according to new research published by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. With so little thick, old ice left, the rate of decrease in ice thickness has slowed. New ice grows faster but is more vulnerable to weather and wind, so ice thickness is now more variable, rather than dominated by the effect of global warming. Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions. Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions. Kwok's research, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combined decades of declassified U.S. Navy submarine measurements with more recent data from four satellites to create the 60-year record of changes in Arctic sea ice thickness. He found that since 1958, Arctic ice cover has lost about two-thirds of its thickness, as averaged across the Arctic at the end of summer. Older ice has shrunk in area by almost 800,000 square miles (more than 2 million square kilometers). Today, 70 percent of the ice cover consists of ice that forms and melts within a single year, which scientists call seasonal ice. Sea ice of any age is frozen ocean water. However, as sea ice survives through several melt seasons, its characteristics change. Multiyear ice is thicker, stronger and rougher than seasonal ice. It is much less salty than seasonal ice; Arctic explorers used it as drinking water. Satellite sensors observe enough of these differences that scientists can use spaceborne data to distinguish between the two types of ice. Thinner, weaker seasonal ice is innately more vulnerable to weather than thick, multiyear ice. It can be pushed around more easily by wind, as happened in the summer of 2013. During that time, prevailing winds piled up the ice cover against coastlines, which made the ice cover thicker for months. The ice's vulnerability may also be demonstrated by the increased variation in Arctic sea ice thickness and extent from year to year over the last decade. In the past, sea ice rarely melted in the Arctic Ocean. Each year, some multiyear ice flowed out of the ocean into the East Greenland Sea and melted there, and some ice grew thick enough to survive the melt season and become multiyear ice. As air temperatures in the polar regions have warmed in recent decades, however, large amounts of multiyear ice now melt within the Arctic Ocean itself. Far less seasonal ice now thickens enough over the winter to survive the summer. As a result, not only is there less ice overall, but the proportions of multiyear ice to seasonal ice have also changed in favor of the young ice. Seasonal ice now grows to a depth of about six feet (two meters) in winter, and most of it melts in summer. That basic pattern is likely to continue, Kwok said. "The thickness and coverage in the Arctic are now dominated by the growth, melting and deformation of seasonal ice." The increase in seasonal ice also means record-breaking changes in ice cover such as those of the 1990s and 2000s are likely to be less common, Kwok noted. In fact, there has not been a new record sea ice minimum since 2012, despite years of warm weather in the Arctic. "We've lost so much of the thick ice that changes in thickness are going to be slower due to the different behavior of this ice type," Kwok said. Kwok used data from U.S. Navy submarine sonars from 1958 to 2000; satellite altimeters on NASA's ICESat and the European CryoSat-2, which span from 2003 to 2018; and scatterometer measurements from NASA's QuikSCAT and the European ASCAT from 1999 to 2017.

That SE Ridge has been at near record levels since the La Niña background state began in 16-17. Even with the record warmth in 16-17 and 17-18, the ridge north of Hawaii was able to focus near Alaska. So we got both a warm and snowy pattern. But in 18-19 and 19-20 that NPAC Ridge was further south creating a snowless pattern for us. So we’ll have to see what that ridge does this winter since it looks like a 5th year in a row with a Niña background state. The ridge centered near Alaska also allows heights to build over the top and drop the NAO at times. Last winter ridge too far south near Hawaii was associated with the strong PV +EPO/+NAO.