bluewave

South Shore of Long Island gusting to 50 mph. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=GMT

That’s a great estimate. RDG just gusted to 51 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KRDG

Harrisburg gusting to 56 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KMDT

Pretty impressive for November.

NYC needs to hold a +2.3 departure to finish with the first 50° November since 2015 and 2011. This year deviated a bit from recent years with the March and November warmth. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 56.6 16 2019 43.9 0 2018 44.4 0 2017 46.6 0 2016 49.8 0 2015 52.8 0 2014 45.3 0 2013 45.3 0 2012 43.9 0 2011 51.9 0 2010 47.9 0

Looks like a good idea if the squall line verifies as strong as the models are showing. Possible 1630Z upgrade... Full outlook update expected by 1630Z with consideration of a Slight Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast with convection rapidly progressing across this region during the evening to early tonight.

That’s the forecast for synoptic wind gusts. Stronger convective gusts with the squall line will be covered with short fused SPS or severe thunderstorm warnings if necessary. Have left the Wind Advisory in place as it was, for portions of eastern New Jersey and the Delaware Beaches. In those areas, synoptic mixing late this afternoon and especially this evening should yield some 40-45mph gusts, though am a little doubtful we will see advisory level synoptic winds. However, those areas also stand the best chance of higher gusts associated with the convective line in the later evening. Further west, synoptic winds should remain below advisory levels, however shorter fused wind threats associated with the convective line may need to be covered by SPS or SVR products depending on how it evolves. Bottom line, regardless of the mechanism most areas stand a chance for a period of strong to locally damaging winds, mainly during the evening hours.

Yeah, the 6z NAM has a 4 to 5 SD 925 mb jet near the coast.

The fast Pacific flow will result in a day 6-10 warm up following the day 1-5 cool down. So the CONUS will finish with a much warmer November than the last few years. I posted the warmest rankings for the CONUS since 2010. Many areas just had a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of November. NYC finished the first 2 weeks at 4th warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1975-11-14 58.9 0 2 1938-11-14 57.6 0 3 2015-11-14 57.1 0 4 2020-11-14 56.6 0 - 1974-11-14 56.6 0 - 1935-11-14 56.6 0 CONUS warmest to coolest temperatures since 2011 201611 47.97°F 10 6.28°F 201711 45.03°F 9 3.34°F 201511 44.60°F 8 2.91°F 201211 44.01°F 7 2.32°F 201111 43.75°F 6 2.06°F 201011 42.31°F 5 0.62°F 201311 41.61°F 4 -0.08°F 201911 41.11°F 3 -0.58°F 201811 40.01°F 2 -1.68°F 201411 39.25°F 1 -2.44°F

It may be tough for Long Island to challenge the 9 year run averaging close to 50”. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.5 6.5 18.2 13.9 8.6 0.6 48.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9

Yeah, 93-94 and 95-96 were our only high snowfall seasons from 79-80 to 99-00. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 12.8 0 1981-04-30 19.4 0 1982-04-30 24.6 0 1983-04-30 27.2 0 1984-04-30 25.4 0 1985-04-30 24.1 0 1986-04-30 13.0 1 1987-04-30 23.1 0 1988-04-30 19.1 0 1989-04-30 8.1 0 1990-04-30 13.4 0 1991-04-30 24.9 0 1992-04-30 12.6 0 1993-04-30 24.5 0 1994-04-30 53.4 0 1995-04-30 11.8 0 1996-04-30 75.6 0 1997-04-30 10.0 0 1998-04-30 5.5 0 1999-04-30 12.7 0 2000-04-30 16.3 0

The big low snowfall record left for NYC is a DJF or full snowfall season T. On the high side, NYC still hasn’t seen a 50” single storm in the modern era. A 10” in one hour would be another snowfall extreme we are yet to see. We should take bets on which of those 3 happens first.

I added it.

Only 79-80, 88-89, and 89-90 finished DJF with single digits. During the 90s it was 91-92, 96-97 , 97-98, and 98-99. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1979-1980 8.2 0 1980-1981 10.8 0 1981-1982 14.3 0 1982-1983 26.4 0 1983-1984 13.5 0 1984-1985 23.9 0 1985-1986 13.0 1 1986-1987 21.2 0 1987-1988 18.0 0 1988-1989 5.6 0 1989-1990 5.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1990-1991 24.7 0 1991-1992 3.2 0 1992-1993 12.6 0 1993-1994 45.3 0 1994-1995 11.8 0 1995-1996 58.8 0 1996-1997 8.2 0 1997-1998 0.5 0 1998-1999 8.2 0 1999-2000 14.7 0

The last 2 met winters were the first consecutive under 5” DJFs for NYC. After 09-10 to 17-18, I don’t think anyone would have made that bet. Just goes to show how extreme our climate has become. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 0 10 1989-1990 5.0 0

Yeah, we have seen several -AO/+NAO splits in recent years. This wasn’t the case for the 09-10 and 10-11 winters. Notice how much different the DJF winter SSTs have been since 13-14. Much warmer SSTs off the East Coast and a cold pool south of Greenland.

Walt, great thread. 12z 3km NAM has one of the more impressive November low topped squall lines that we have seen in a while. The Euro shows 55 mph winds just off the deck near the coast. 12z NAM wind gust product has increased to 60 mph potential on Long Island.

The SE Ridge has only relaxed for 3 out of the last 15 DJF met winter months. The 3 winter months it hasn’t been a factor since the 15-16 winter were Dec 17, Feb 16, and Jan 16. We should probably develop a SE Ridge or WAR index like the other teleconnections since it has become such a dominant feature of our recent climate.

Very tough to get any extended cold with such a fast Pacific flow. Notice how we get cold for a few days following the Great Lakes lows. But the +EPO, +NAO, and SSTs allow a quick warm up and the SE Ridge flexes again.

The late November pattern looks similar to recent winters. Very fast Pacific flow and +EPO. The -AO blocking doesn’t look strong enough to eliminate the SE Ridge as the +NAO vortex holds on. So the primary storm track will remain through the Great Lakes. Ridges persist over the warm Atlantic and Pacific SST band along 40N.

Yeah, I just saw this story a few days ago.

Like Walt mentioned above, the Euro has 50 mph winds just off the deck which could mix down in low topped squall line gusts.

Those are some of the fastest rising SSTs on the planet.