bluewave

The EPS weeklies are warmer than normal until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in.

Gusting into the 40s along the coast. Jones Beach N/A 43 N/A N/A W30G43 N/A Wantagh N/A 41 28 60 W22G43 N/A Hempstead NOT AVBL Matinecock Pt N/A 43 N/A N/A NW33G46 N/A

Looks to be a very slow mover with such a strong blocking ridge to the north.

The coming warm up will get a boost from one of the most impressive WAR patterns we have seen during the month of November. The strongest ridge that I could find in the OKX soundings for November was 589 DM. The ensemble forecasts have the potential for a 588 DM+ ridge by the weekend.

New record lowest October average extent. There have been 10 new monthly lowest average extent records set since 2016. The only remaining monthly records are August and September 2012.

The last 3 Novembers in NYC were colder than average. But this year is starting out differently. The previous 3 years began the month warm and shifted colder by the 2nd week of the month. This year the coldest days for a while will be on the 2nd 3rd with a rebound back to the mild 60s. So it will be interesting to see if this means that we will finally see a milder than normal November. Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7 2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7 2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3 KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/01/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08 CLIMO X/N 56| 36 45| 39 51| 39 57| 51 67| 55 68| 56 68| 59 66 42 56

A record 11 consecutive warmer than average Octobers. Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA 2020...+1.5...+1.0...+1.8 2019..+3.8...+3.0 ...+2.8 2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7 2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4 2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1 2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3 2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2 2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8 2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9 2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2 2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

It’s looks like those record warm SSTs off the West Coast and East Coast had a greater influence on our weather than the MJO. Notice how close the October pattern matched the +PMM. Those are the warmest SSTs off the West Coast that we have seen with such a strong La Niña. It’s probably why the October pattern was so different than we would expect from a La Niña.

Looks like the new shortest duration between 2 different seasonal T’s. May 9th to October 30th.

Yeah, the 5th coldest October minimum temperature on record for NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1936 28 0 2 1976 29 0 - 1925 29 0 - 1887 29 0 - 1879 29 0 3 1940 30 0 - 1869 30 0 4 1988 31 0 - 1975 31 0 - 1974 31 0 - 1969 31 0 - 1871 31 0 5 1972 32 0 - 1965 32 0 - 1933 32 0 - 1928 32 0 - 1917 32 0 - 1904 32 0 - 1889 32 0 - 1876 32 1 2020 32 0

Some video of the sleet along the South Shore.

39° with sleet mixing here in SW Suffolk. Models did an excellent job advertising this potential well in advance.

No surprise that we are seeing another very early season snow with the North American snow cover extent setting a new October record. This is our 5th snow event by mid-November since 2008. This includes the late October events in 2008 and 2011 along with November 2012 and 2018. Let me know if I am missing one from the northern parts of our forum. My guess is that this is related to the steep October sea ice decline since 2007. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

Yeah, Saturday morning may be our lowest temperature for a while. The early next week cool down not looking as impressive. Then we get a moderation in temperatures.

While the record cold around the Rockies and Plains has been impressive, it’s focused over a very small geographic region of the planet. The coverage of the record cold is much smaller than the areas and magnitude of record warmth as the world warms. It’s no coincidence that the record October cold near Montana is occurring in an isolated pocket relative to the overall extent of the global temperature increases. Montana represents a portion of the only 17 out of 2,844 stations with under 6 months of warming over the last 30 years.

If NYC can drop to 34° or lower before the end of October, then it would be the first time since 2011. ..New York City... Central Park, NY Rain Rain Sunny Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Sunny /52 44/45 34/49 41/58 39/48 36/51 40/58 /100 100/80 10/00 00/30 30/10 00/00 00/10 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2019 43 0 2018 38 0 2017 42 0 2016 38 0 2015 35 0 2014 42 0 2013 40 0 2012 38 0 2011 33 0

RI has become the new normal in recent years.

This was the October version of DJF 17-18.

Much warmer SSTs this October than in 1995. The Western Ridge is also significantly stronger. You can see how much more amplified the 500 MB pattern is this year.

Notice how the seasonal forecasts from August missed the magnitude of the Ridge parked over Western North America this fall. UKMET Euro September and October verification

Yeah, the ridge locked in near the West Coast keeps warming the SSTs. So we got the smallest north-south SST gradient in the NE Pacific. These are the warmest NE Pacific SSTs we have seen with a La Niña of this strength.

Maybe it’s related to the record WPAC warm pool? I read some papers on how the anomalous ridging near the West Coast since 2013 could be related to the record SSTs in the Tropical WPAC. Then there were other papers that suggest a link between the record Pacific basin SSTs and the low Arctic sea ice.