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coastalplainsnowman

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Everything posted by coastalplainsnowman

  1. coastalplainsnowman
    Thanks, this is great. And that's absolutely right about the snow sticking around. We've had storms during the great run since 2000 in which 15" fell in the dead of winter that were totally gone so quickly that it was almost not to be believed. Yet back then a 5 inch snowfall would mess up my Newsday delivery work for weeks. It's not surprising but still noteworthy how Syosset's numbers look as compared to say at the other end of 135. Those numbers, especially from 80/81 - 84/85, average about 5" higher than what I usually see for LI. And you definitely know better than me that good as those numbers are, the sweet spot for LI a good 25 miles east of there are even better, right? The gradient between, say, Amityville and Stony Brook is significant.
  2. coastalplainsnowman
    Whoever said earlier that at least in the 80s you could count on at least a few 4-6” events each year, I agree. In grade school we seemed to get precisely one snow day a year from them. Seemed like the very clippers that for the last two decades mean white rain around here were our go-to for a few 4-6 inchers a year back the . Everyone who was around back then remembers ‘Alberta Clipper’ right? That’s what almost all of them seemed to be.
  3. coastalplainsnowman
    Barron’s Earth Science NYS Regents guide vibes.
  4. coastalplainsnowman
    I'm sorry man I was going for a laugh but it came off wrong
  5. coastalplainsnowman
    C'mon man, you've got to let folks vent a little lol. That post was small enough to be a classic 140 character tweet. Just because it snowed a lot in the past two decades doesn't mean he has to be happy with 1 inch of snow and ice. He knows he doesn't live in the Alps.
  6. coastalplainsnowman
    lol true, but I'd rather win a million dollar lump sum lottery prize than a dollar a year for a million years, which is closer to our current rate.
  7. coastalplainsnowman
    I was surprised at what LongBeach posted, so maybe what you say above explains it. I was just north of Sunrise and I remember driving into work hear Pat Pagano (who is still on the air btw, comfy as a winter fireplace) warning that temps were being very stubborn to get above freezing for that memorable storm. To my knowledge we never did get above freezing, or did so very late after being back home for the day. Granted, stumbling across wunderground almanac recently I realized that I've blocked out some of the albeit brief milder stretches of that winter, but still, from that locale, when I think of 93/94, I think snow, cold, ice, and sidestreets snowpacked for longer than I've seen before or since. I think of the best snow-on-snow I've ever seen, three days apart on a Tuesday and Friday in Feb, etc.
  8. coastalplainsnowman
    It's just a matter of judgement. Folks here aren't making the 'Hey our parents smoked in the car and we didn't wear seatbelts. I love the good old days, why can't it still be that way' argument - that's a dumb argument. I think folks are just saying that the judgement these days seems to err too hard on the side of caution. Additionally - and I know this point has been made at some point here - if there's genuine concern about safety, then close the schools, don't have the dopey 2 hour delay, which just causes problems for everyone involved.
  9. coastalplainsnowman
    I just checked the temperature from the reporting station at Hell Airport (KHLL.) It's below freezing.
  10. coastalplainsnowman
    Is that anything new? I know nothing about the inner workings of these models, but generally, aren’t models often driven by the same statistical formulas which drive AI? I always assumed that was the case. Maybe it’s a marketing thing, calling it AI now?
  11. coastalplainsnowman
    On the coast, this far out, history says that if the R word is being uttered at all, that's big trouble. 5 days out we want to be debating coastal special vs. fish storm, not mix vs. snow. While there have been a noteworthy few which trended the other way, even among those rare cases, the forecasts, for coastal folks, almost always trended from snow to nothing, not from 'wintry mix' to snow. I'm gonna try my best to keep my expectations low on this one til Monday. Good luck to me with that.
  12. coastalplainsnowman
    I wonder how often LI has had more rainfall in inches than snowfall in inches in a given winter. Last year for sure. Just like with thunderstorms, the real wind action was before that line came thru, and that's accounting for radar lag. I always assumed that was typical given that it always seems to be the case, for me anyway.
  13. coastalplainsnowman
    This has the same vibe as me being ok with a Jets loss because we'll get a better draft pick. Ah, to be a Jets fan and a snow fan living on Long Island in 2022/2023/2024. Great times..
  14. coastalplainsnowman
    Thanks - yeah I can only remember the one. NorthShoreWx who I would never doubt, responded "Pretty sure the south shore did that in February 2013. And late February 2010. May have happened in February 2015 too. Probably others." Maybe I overstated the case, and it's just that no 'memorable' snow has followed a moderate rain other than that 2002 one that I remember. Your 5" threshold would be a good definition of 'memorable.'
  15. coastalplainsnowman
    Somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but the only time in the past 40 years that LI has ever gone from at least moderate rain to snow that accumulated more than say, 3 inches, was on December 25, 2002 (which featured a lot more than that.) That's it, at least in the last 40 years in SE Nassau.
  16. coastalplainsnowman
    Looking like Jets/Patriots might take place during a snowstorm this Sunday up in Foxboro right? While the temperatures definitely wont be in the negative numbers, the combined offensive yardage might.
  17. coastalplainsnowman
    Global temperatures have been rising for as long as we've been able to reliably measure it. The recent rate over the most recent 50 years is greater than the previous 100. But the extrapolation by some on here of very, very recent events to suggest that we're witnessing a sudden point of no return right here before our eyes on americanwx.com, is unfounded and not scientific. For the same reason that a cold snap or a blizzard doesn't dispute the fact that temperatures have been rising ("Weather is not climate", we are told), looking at a few recent years to suggest that it just won't snow any more in 'our new climate' (another term I see here a lot lately) is silly. There's so much data to convince that things are getting warmer. Extrapolating very recent data to draw dramatic and ominous conclusions undermines such arguments. I don't see the mets or other experts on here who share their excellent posts about warming trends saying anything so dramatic - perhaps cues can be taken from them to - pardon the pun - chill out.
  18. coastalplainsnowman
    Exactly. Here's the screenshot I took at the time showing the rain/snow line sitting jusssssssst southeast of the Nassau/Suffolk south shore border. (When I tell people here to forget the radar and go enjoy the darn snow, I speak from experience lol.) To this day the heaviest/lowest visibility snow I have ever seen, going back to 1980.
  19. coastalplainsnowman
    100%. Remember too at the time that for coastal sections that saw little snow in the 93 superstorm, 93/94 and 95/96 seemed like freak anomalies against our experience in the 80s and early 90s. Little did we know what the next 18 years would bring.
  20. coastalplainsnowman
    I guess when folks say 'correlation is not causation', this would be a good example lol
  21. coastalplainsnowman
    I think this says as much about our current weather specifically at the moment as it does about early Spring weather around here. I realize, even spring has been deceptively above normal if I recall, but anecdotally, the theme seems to be the following: a. Winter false start at Thanksgiving b. Actual winter start delayed til early Jan c. Damp winter remnants stubbornly hang around into April Last year you could wear a ight minimally insulated water resistant jacket to work from January (because it was mild enough) through early June (because it was cool enough). Last year Jan - June was the uniseason.
  22. coastalplainsnowman
    I see this too locally but I don't think I understand why. March and early April routinely see consistent temps much higher than the mostly mild conditions we've had recently, yet it takes a good while before actual grass (not weeds) start growing/greening up. Is it that some places never went 'dormant'? Not sure I know what I even mean by dormant, or if its driven strictly by temperature anyway.
  23. coastalplainsnowman
    Wikipedia says that the last time Mount Batur erupted was about the year 2000. Based on what I'm reading in this thread, sounds like the odds of it erupting again before we see measurable snowfall again at the coast are about 50/50.
  24. coastalplainsnowman
    Thanks for this - just to clarify - warmer than Richmond was for the same time periods, or warmer than Richmond's likewise historical averages?
  25. coastalplainsnowman
    For what it’s worth, growing up on LI in the 80s with family up there, seemingly every time we had an agonizingly close snowstorm which was instead a cold rain storm, they would get plastered with snow, so often that it was the running joke.
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