coastalplainsnowman

I have family up in Sussex. The difference in the winter weather between there and where I am on LI is like night and day, which we all know. In the 80s as a kid, I experienced one or two gut punches per season as they got socked up there with snow while we got rain. We got a little revenge with some of grazers of the last decade, but the score is about 100-2 in your favor. I've got no frozen lakes, and no snowcover - just a few measly parking lot snowpiles, and that's about it. Ah, it all pays off in early to mid April, though, when you'll occasionally get up to 72 under bright blue skies, while I'm backdoored with 49, low clouds, fog and drizzle.

How's this for shallow? Sadly I don't always necessarily look at the thread. I just look at how long its been since the last post. The following guide has been very reliable over the years: Last Post Current Snow Prognosis Just now Very very positive trending toward greater than previously expected plowable snow 1-2 minutes Status quo favorable toward plowable snow 3 minutes Some hints at trouble, either for change to rain or out to sea, still a good shot at plowable snow 4 minutes Negative trends - rain or out to sea looking more likely 5-15 minutes Negative trends reinforced - expectation is now for minimal snow or snow and quick changeover - but still some hope 15 minutes+ All hope is lost. Some new posts, but they're talking about next week's possibilities.

Does anyone else find that in storms like these that the winds infrequently -- not always, but infrequently -- come close to materializing, or at least are so localized that it seems that way for most? I'm talking about Long Island in particular. Anecdotal, I know, but feels like I've had maybe a storm every two years here where 60mph plus gusts are expected, and it turns out to be not just not very windy, but downright calm, and I'm thinking 'what the heck?'

It's crazy right? Looking back, during the Blizzard of '96 people were referencing '78 and '83 which by that time felt like they happened in the stone age. But only 13 years elapsed between '83 and '96, and it's now been twice that long since '96 as you said. Next year will be *30* years since the '93 superstorm, which feels like yesterday. It's going too fast, someone make it slow down.

Looks like about 6" here. Testament to all the monster storms of the 2000s/2010s that I didn't even measure. I've turned into my parents/grandparents who poo-pooed every "storm" in the 80s (other than showing respect for 2/83), having the 60s and late 70s still fresh in their minds. The snow was definitely more dense and difficult to shovel than expected (yeah, I know, advancing age), but seriously the bottom inch was liquid slush. Didn't seem like the ground would have been warm enough for that to happen. It must have really accumulated impressively for awhile. Sanitation is here no earlier than 5AM yet almost all the accumulation was on top of the tossed lids rather than under. When I observed it at 6AM I thought "moderately-heavy" but must have been better than I thought. Anyway, enjoy the snow everyone.

If you want some big-time nostalgia, go find Kenny G "Songbird" and play it in the background while you're watching that TWC link. You'll want to stay lost in the mid 90s. Edit: And I'm no Kenny G fan (except for a few Christmas tunes.) Edit #2: Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Just curious what folks think of there being any red at all in the map below. 'Major Impacts' expected in parts of NJ? "Extensive property damage likely, life saving actions needed?" On what basis?

Us Newsday kids would be in awe/confusion over the Daily News paperboy. "Wait, they get up and deliver their papers BEFORE school?" Meanwhile, the Newsday customers were getting their papers at 5PM. Who would even stand for that today lol.

Thanks. I remember the snowy scene but forgot it was from literally the day before. If there was such a thing as a winter wonderland index based on snow and cold, Jan 4, 2014 would be a top 5.

On this day in 2014, KFRG got down to 1 degree. I remember watching some local weatherunderground stations get down to 0.2. Had to be one of the 5 coldest for Nassau since 1994 with I believe Valentine's day 2016 beating it, and nothing close since. This is all mostly from memory and notes, someone correct me if I'm wrong please.

100%. If it's the one I'm remembering, left for school in the AM with dreams of '83, even in terms of start time. Didn't see one flake though, but as I recall Atlantic City got 18" and even Montauk got a foot.

Why not? If I almost get hit by a car, and also was not expecting to be hit by the car, is that not still a miss?

Someone's gonna initially read this as an expected snowfall map. Besides me, I mean

From where I was sitting, in terms of intensity over a 90 minute period, it was. We've all seen our share of 20-28" snowfalls since that time. None approached the rates I experienced in that storm. Maybe nobody outside of southeast Nassau experienced it in that storm, but I did, and no storm before or since came close to approaching it. It's why I still remember it like yesterday, 21 years later.

On this date, 12/30/2000, 21 years ago, I witnessed the heaviest snowfall rates I've ever seen, not topped before or since, even with all the great storms that followed over the 20 years to follow. At its peak, could see two houses down my suburban block, but not three. I've got non-digital photos somewhere I'll have to find sometime. Only ended up with about 9-10 inches, at the time a big deal with really only 96, 83, and a fuzzy memory of 78 for reference, with the jackpot 2000/2010s yet to come. The rain/snow line per radar was a hair to my southeast for the entire event. What a great storm.

Who was the guy on predecessor weather boards a hundred years ago who used make snow in his backyard every chance he could, and post photos of it? Those were good times, feels like about 15-20 years ago?

Not just leaved, but looks like there's still a decent amount of green. Crazy. It's confusing to me too, not just the trees.

All I know is that we're at least talking possibilities, where just a few days ago there seemed to be general consensus that we were gettin nuttin' for Christmas (or New Years ((or MLK (or PD.)))) Like every good Jet fan, I just want a slightly-greater-than-mathematical chance at some fun around Christmas. It looks like that is now possible. No, not for the Jets, of course not, don't be ridiculous - right now that's like asking for a sharknado in January. I mean just for somewhat winterlike weather.

Two layman's thoughts here: - Observing over the years, despite a lot of really impressive calls from way out, I also can remember many times where there was stone cold lead pipe lock consensus that there was no way anything good would be happening in the next three weeks, only for something totally unexpected and good to occur within that timeframe. So I'm not giving up. - No matter what, we'll get an annoying 60 degree day in the week leading up to Christmas to mess up the mood. That seems to be a regular feature around here much of the last 10 or so years.

Does this mean that the measured daytime temperatures at this time each year are influenced by the timing of when most of the leaves have fallen?

I would love to try to do a correlation between variables like average temp, average high temp, average low temp, total precip, etc, for, say, Jan 1 - Oct. 1 against 'date of peak color', or 'date of 99% leaves fallen' Nobody tracks leaf-related stats like that though, do they?

I know that no one seems as worked up about this as me, but is anyone else floored by the delay in fall foliage on LI? While the trees that usually start hitting peak three weeks ago are starting to get there now, the trees that typically change later are ridiculously behind. The oaks have barely begun to lose their leaves. The maples have only now, in the last day or so, begun to show some color and drop a few dozen leaves. I know these are among the trees which lose their leaves later, but still. Anecdotally: Anyone around LI remember trudging through leaves on Halloween afternoon as a kid? There were virtually no leaves on the ground to speak of this year. Also, typically by the weekend before Thanksgiving, if memory serves, I can usually do my major fall cleanup and get the Christmas decorations out, with a few light rounds of touchup to follow. We are easily 3 weeks away from that. Time on my hands today obviously.

Unusual look to the sky in SE Nassau looking NE. To my layman's eye looks almost like thunderstorms backbuilding WSW-ward against an already cloudy (but not as dark) sky.

Hey just wondering, are the leaves ever going to start to change on LI this year? I’m sure it’s delayed due to warmth and maybe muted due to warm and dry? This is insane. Still looks like August except a little bit on zalcovas and some others which always change first.