coastalplainsnowman

As always it's about expectations rather than actual accumulations, to a silly extreme. Once you get the idea in your head that someone is going to give you 12 to 18 hundred dollars, and they only give you 6 hundred, there's actually sadness, even though virtually any other week of any winter in the last three years you'd be thrilled if someone handed you 600 dollars.

I noticed that my Sunday overnight forecast changed from "Wintry Mix" to "Snow/Sleet", while all the totals remained the same. Does anyone know if Is there actually a technical definition of "Wintry Mix"? Was it changed to "Snow/Sleet" because "Wintry Mix" actually means snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and freezing rain is now no longer expected, or something along those lines? Or is it arbitrary?

How does that old saying go? When snowman19 appears in the thread, that means 6 more inches of sleet? Just kidding, appreciate your pov..

This is great, but I was waiting for some reference to its Achilles' heel, not that I would know what that might be.

You could drive from the Texas/Mexico border to north central Vermont right now and be under a WSW the entire way. Wild.

SE Nassau lol. I think the warm nose heard me talking bad about it.

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose." On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross. If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

It's a good point. We're going to go back below freezing in a few hours and potentially not see above freezing again until not just the middle of next week, but middle of the *following* week. By that point the first calm 40 degree day with sunshine, whenever it happens again, is going to feel like a beach day.

I know this is a Master Of The Obvious thing to say, but the whole tone of the board leading up to these events, other than for the few who are able to keep emotions out of it, is entirely driven by expectations. The 12-18" for the city / LI being tossed around starting 3 days ago virtually guaranteed that there would be a lot of unhappy people. Had the early numbers been 1-3 and out to sea and evolved into even 4-8" plus sleet, the mood would be so much more chipper. Meanwhile, I can go back to now two different times this winter where there was much lamenting about how we were going to be cold and dry forever. Yet here we are again.

We should like both publications as they would have the storm going more to the right. The New York Times would have the low tracking over Pennsylvania. Relax just having some fun, submitting a post without the word sleet in it, except for that one time.

Happy to be convinced otherwise, but while I've seen storms trend consistently north, and less frequently storms trend consistently south, have we seen many storms trend consistently in one direction in all the major models 96-72 hours out, then suddenly and significantly reverse course? I assume that we don't see that much because as we get closer and closer to the event, the more likely the models are to be accurate?

Snowman92 is 4.842105 times more bullish about snow than Snowman19.

When I read this to myself I hear it in my Dad's voice.

Agreed. In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360. That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly. Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.* Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner. And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable. Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold. Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow: cold, moisture, and luck. That's very true.

It’s odd yet funny to see the models increasingly go mainstream. Listening to sports talk radio this morning and they’re saying the European model says this, the North American model says that, how about the GFS etc.

Assuming things stay on track of course, if the Bills won last weekend, we could have witnessed an epic AFC Championship at Foxboro this Sunday in the snow. I suppose nowadays they probably would have moved or postponed it though.

inches?

The way things are these days, the storm doesn't even have to materialize beyond a minor storm. If the models are still showing this at 5PM on Sunday, everything everywhere will be closed, even if not a flake has fallen from the sky yet.

An amendment to a thread title requires a) two thirds vote of the moderators -and- b) ratification by popular vote of the members representing three fourths of the counties comprising NYC metro

I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend. It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere.

My favorite webcam out there - seeing what it looks like now compared to when we're on vacation out there, sun setting, the lawn full, restaurants buzzing. I love the snow but that's pretty great too.

For anyone who cares, from a snow standpoint this playoff game in Foxboro could be fun to watch toward the end.

Very little to speak of here. Temp stubbornly mid 30s and the slushy ~0.5" that accumulated when it was a bit heavier is sliding off the cars etc. Just 3-4 miles north where I was this morning though different story. Probably between 1.5 and 2", accumulated on most surfaces other than roads, and was coming down good for awhile. Was drizzly there too as I was headed back here though.

well done

Wish I was there. Did we have "death band" in the list that was started for all the terms used here to describe heavy snow? That's a good one I think we missed. Adding it to the list..