coastalplainsnowman

I was just looking at the NESIS page. If I'm reading it correctly, in a 13 day stretch in 2010 western southern NJ received: 4-10" Jan 29-30 20-30" Feb 4-7 10-20" Feb 9-11th and it looks like it never got out of the 30s during that stretch. Is this not amazing? I've never seen a stretch like that on LI. Closest to this would be maybe '78 before I could remember. I don't remember this being discussed much back in 2010, but then again I see we got clocked up here a few times in early 2010 too and I have no recollection of those either. Probably because they were so darn frequent for so long.

Don, I'm hoping you are going to do that "winter misery index" calculation / comparison for this winter when all is said and done. Really curious to see how it will stack up if the winter stays on its current trajectory with regard to snow and temps. Namely, whether the somewhat below normal temps will help this year land somewhere in the middle historically, despite the low snow totals. Or, does the fact that the temps when compared to the last hundred years or so aren't all that cold after all will land it among the more miserable winters.

Wondering what folks here think regarding storms like this one and the public's perception, in particular the coastal public's perception. In a situation like the current storm, where based on some of the maps I've seen here it could still be an 8-10 inch "event" 150-200 miles offshore, I bet that the overwhelming majority of the public don't realize that there was in fact a good sized storm, but it just missed us. If you live in Chicago and a storm hits 150 miles to the east, everyone will still know about it because populated areas will still get pounded. But if a storm misses NYC to the east by that much, the perception is that a big storm was predicted and absolutely nothing happened. Maybe I'm master of the obvious, but I figured it's banter so why not.

Don that's probably neck and neck with Bayside Queens for the year right? I wasn't sure if that was intentional dry humor (pun intended.)

If that were to keep backing in like that we could end up with one of those surprise Montauk specials like in March 1998 (or was it 1999, I always forget), where they got 14", Riverhead maybe 6", flurries at the Nassau/Suffolk border, and Sam Champion showing mostly sunny skies from atop the Empire State Building. Not saying that's happening, but something like that did happen once.

Exactly. From that pic it looks to me like that thing is going to hit even further southeast of the benchmark than this Thursday's "storm." I think we'll be fine.

As much as the hobbyists on here can learn from guys like Walt for their technical knowledge, we (I include myself) can learn even more from them from the humble way in which they conduct themselves. They class this place up.

Meanwhile, from the New York Post, 10 minutes ago: "Biggest snowstorm this season likely as nor’easter set to pummeled Northeast this week" The article itself equivocates a bit, but that headline does not. And "pummeled" - past tense - is in the actual headline, not a typo by me. https://nypost.com/2025/02/17/us-news/could-northeast-get-pummeled-by-noreaster-this-week/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

No prediction here, just something that I can't stop thinking of, with regards to Seinfeld: "NO SNOW FOR YOU! COME BACK, ONE YEAR!"

This is funny in a few ways. "JB's predictions for snow were typically 25% higher than average, but this was found to be due to PEDs."

This thread's title is "Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 18z Wed 2/19-12z Fri 2/21?." The Gulf Stream's elimination, if it does in fact occur, most likely won't be observable by this Friday. I think that's all he's saying.

When it comes to forecasting. I don't know anything, and even I know that JB saying that there's a better chance of it snowing than we think, is right on brand. If I ever saw someone report here that JB is calling for less snow than current consensus, I would immediately rush out to buy a warm coat, because it would mean that hell has frozen over.

I'm noticing Friday the 21st dates on a number of the recently posted maps. Is there consensus (whether it scrapes by or hits more directly, is weaker or is stronger, etc.) that anything that were to happen would start more like Thursday night rather than overnight Wednesday into Thursday?

Lol though It's ironic to state this here, since practically the entire reason most are here in the winter is to see if the water will be wet or frozen.

That is jogging away at such a drastic rate that if it keeps up it could wrap around the globe in the remaining runs between now and Thursday and end up nailing us after all.

lol

Maybe a met, or just someone with a better memory than me can chime in, but if memory serves, over the last twenty years, quite a few of our more memorable storms have been on our radar a week out, then were almost entirely lost, only to show up again with a vengeance a few days later. And I don't say this as someone rooting for a storm to happen. Normally I definitely would, but I'm supposed to be travelling Thursday.

lol. We're already wrapping up the fun "we're all snow bros! I love you man!" phase and into the much more tense "it's early, but not too early to worry" phase.

You would say that.

I think that right now we're still trying to see if we'll like the movie based on the trailers, looking forward to opening night.

You guys ever check out the Twitter (X) handle @lockingitin ? They post screenshots of the most extreme model runs, presumably as a joke, given that the handle is named LOCKITIN (all caps)

Yes, it is.

This is why sometimes ignorance is bliss. 99% of everyone watching this snow is enjoying it, but we can't quite enjoy it because we're thinking about Thursday and Saturday. What the hell are we doing lol. We want it to snow, it's freaking snowing, but we're not happy because it will rain in the future, *even though it is snowing on top of snow as we speak.* And I totally relate. If it was supposed to be cold the rest of the week with flurries Thursday and more snow Saturday, this would be more enjoyable.

Out at lunch at school it hadn't started yet, and I said I hope it's not missing us. My friend, with no evidence, said 'Nah, we're gonna get crushed' and I wanted to believe it. We got nothing. Back in those pre-internet days I think it was days later that I heard one of the other News 12 rub salt in the wound, saying that Atlantic City got 18" and Montauk got a foot. So close. Back then we had very vague memories of '78, and awesome memories of '83, which came on like a wall at 12:45 PM.

Man, someone is living their best life right now.