coastalplainsnowman
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Everything posted by coastalplainsnowman
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you're not kidding
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If you asked your average snow-loving Bostonian in November if they would sign up for receiving 1750% as much snow as NYC this winter, I bet they would figured on receiving more than 7".
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both houses - humblebrag lol
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If this lack of winter keeps up, and doesn't happen again in future years to this extent for awhile, do you think this season will be referred to as 'The Year Without a Winter' or do the Christmas week cold snap and the super-brief recent cold snap disqualify it? For comparison, looks like the 1816 Year without a Summer did have some brief bouts of 90+ weather, so maybe it wouldn't be disqualifying.
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Just wondering, how easy was it to spot? Visible to the naked eye?
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Not to mention Huntsville Alabama ahead of NYC, 0.6 to 0.4.
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All - I don't mean this directly to Don, I'm just referencing his chart - though of course Don your thoughts would be greatly appreciated too. Playing devil's advocate here - Just going by this chart, it looks like NYC's Winter Mean Temperature per the moving average has increased by about one and one-third degrees in the past 65 years. By my rough math that trend would turn NYC into Baltimore in roughly 200 years. That the rate of increase over the preceding 57 years was sharper than the most recent 65, if anything, evidence points toward a flattening, but I digress. Given how the stars already have to align for big snows along the coast - i.e. the likelihood of such an occurrence is historically so low, that our chances of seeing another quite snowy winter in our not to distant future are only negligibly diminished compared to, say, the 1960s. It's like if I buy 34 lottery tickets instead of 36. My chances of winning the lottery are undoubtedly diminished, but how likely is it to affect the outcome for me? I'm probably not going to win a big prize regardless. And if I do win a big prize, I was lucky, regardless. I'm taking the time to make this point because it seems like there's sentiment around here to the effect of 'we've entered a whole new era, how can we trust the long term models anymore, etc.' Maybe that is all true. But the chart above suggests to me not yet. I've got no meteorology background, which I know is obvious. Just curious as to folks take on this and if you think it's off base. Thanks.
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"Cold Friday." The best part of this is how in 1807 there wasn't so much word inflation yet. 'Cold Friday' today would be 'Polar Vortex Arctic Blast Frigid Friday.'
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Nice pics, Don. In that second one you certainly have their attention.
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The explanation the NWS gave with that tweet was great. Can't tell you how many times I've seen charts like that on here and had not the first clue how to go about reading it. They gave a nice explanation for the layman which is much appreciated.
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Is it noteworthy that Montauk hit 0 while White Plains only got down to 1? Westhampton hitting 0 I understand, what with its freakish radiational cooling, but Montauk? I thought that was interesting.
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I did it at 4 degrees. Not the best result I've ever gotten, partly because water wasn't totally boiling, but definitely crystalized before hitting the ground. Something tells me I could reach my 90s God willing and will still try to get outside to do this every time.
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how utterly sad
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I only know what it means if the groundhog a) sees his shadow, and b) does not. Not sure what weather is in store if the groundhog dies. I'm just thinking of that term, 'groundhog'. What a lazy way to name it. Does that thing look like a hog to anyone? Same goes for 'prairie dog.'
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In an environment in which virtually every severe weather event is presented by many media outlets, including ones devoted to weather 24/7, as just more evidence that the world will soon be over, this was inevitable.
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It must be a law that long range forecast weather graphics whenever it is forecast to be very cold or very hot, must replace the graphic indicating cloud cover with a condescending red or blue thermometer. "The temperature will be 15 degrees on Saturday. This means it will be COLD. Here's a picture of a blue thermometer just to make sure you get that."
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Out walking the dog tonight, just cannot believe this weather. It's a pre-Thanksgiving 'I just beat the darkness finishing up raking the leaves' atmosphere out there. No chimney smoke smell, just earth/soil. That's all I got as far as imagery / setting the scene goes. Unreal.
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Thank you - was thinking exactly the same, that whatever it was I was looking at to the north and west, it didn't seem winterlike.
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On the other hand there's this quote from the baseball player Bill "Spaceman" Lee from years ago: "I think about the cosmic snowball theory. A few million years from now the sun will burn out and lose its gravitational pull. The earth will turn into a giant snowball and be hurled through space. When that happens it won't matter if I get this guy out."
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Through March 1st or March 20th? No doubt its been terrible and doesn't look good, but betting on 0.0 for the year would be a brave bet, just because something somehow always materializes, however weak or late in the game it may be.
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Yes, but at the same time, when it's snowless for this long, something so strong could carry us away.
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I'm figuring someone already made this analogy but here goes. Potentially breaking our snow drought just shy of the record, as the final poke in the eye, reminds me of a certain hometown football team which will remain nameless, winning a few meaningless games at the end of the year a few years back to lose out on the prize for worst team and the #1 draft pick that would have gone with it. And, of course, the year they did manage to score the #1 draft pick, Peyton Manning saw that and said 'I'm going to stay at Tennessee! They're better!' Ok I added that very last part.
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I've wondered about the whole feast or famine thing here on LI. Anecdotally, at least, it seemed true. I started messing with some data I scrounged from a newsday web page showing annual snowfall totals since the 1950s. I tried standard deviation first from 1950-1985, then 1986-2020, that showed a larger SD for the latter, but it was tough to visualize. Then I tried taking the range of min to max annual snowfall for each decade. That had surprising results, with the only real outlier being the 1980s. Lastly, I threw out the min and max for each decade, figuring you'll have an anomaly on each end every decade, and then repeated the exercise. I think this captures best what LibertyBell describes: I realize everything about this approach is probably an abomination to any scientist on here, but I figured what the heck, it's so slow right now I'll post it.
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Along those lines, the largely quiet 80s are nowhere to be found, which makes sense. As we know, those winters were largely cold, and the snow wasn't *that* terrible, it just lacked big storms (other than '83) and seemed to have a lot of N&W or changeover storms for us coastal folk.
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Thanks Don. Initially amazed that 95-96 is in there but 93-94 isn't, but I suppose the most brutal part of 93/94 was just getting started around the 18th..
