coastalplainsnowman

Dad is that you?

What an embarrassment of riches the 2000-2018 period was. If this storm happened anytime in the 80s or 90s it would be referred to knowingly as the Blizzard of '18 like we talk about the Blizzard of '83 or '96. But because of when it happened it was just another ho hum foot+ storm lost in the mix.

Main story by me is that everything - the street, sidewalks, etc - are a slick sheet of ice. It's a crusty 1/4-1/2" of frozen combo. I was woken up by some gusts of wind while it was still dark out but fell back asleep. Now I know what it was. Caps off a start to meteorological winter that I would have gladly signed up for if you asked me in October. Happy New Year! All the best for a happy and a healthy 2026.

I remember tracking the rain/snow line on the old Accuweather radar. This storm was probably the best example I've ever seen of the saying "you have to smell the rain to get the best snows."

There have been a few years in the past 25 or so where the models consistently called for a warmup or cool down two weeks out, just on the horizon, but it would not materialize, and in response the models would seemingly just keep pushing said warmup or cool down out yet another few weeks, perpetually out there on a two week horizon. Eventually folks on here would start to say "it just seems to want to be warm [or cold] this winter" The models would never quite catch on though, continually promising a change was just around the corner. I wonder if this is shaping up to be one of those years.

Had this originally in the other thread but moved here. Regarding the intense rates and low visibility of the 12/30/2000 storm, here's a pic I took with a good ol' SLR (non digital) camera. For reference, the car on the right is at most 75-80 feet away. Still doesn't do it justice.

As I have said on here a few times, there have been bigger storms, colder storms, storms of longer duration, and storms with larger final totals for sure. But I have never, ever, ever, seen anything approaching the rate of snow or lack of visibility that I witnessed during about 90 minutes at the peak of this storm. Nothing before or after was even close. Also, just incredible to think that this storm was now one quarter of a century ago. Geez.

How do the snowfall averages for 1990-2019 stack up against the previous known 30 year periods? I have a point, but I want to make sure I'm right on the data first.

Granted I'm on Long Island, but I can probably count on one hand the number of years in the last 45 that we had significant snowcover last until the next big storm. New snow on top of old snow has always been quite rare. 93/94 of course is one such year, but even 95/96 notably was not. In the 80s we had a few years where the snow from a moderate clipper lasted a few weeks in a very cold month, but again the Blizzard of '83 year was practically snowless right up to that storm, and was mild almost immediately after it. Not saying the trend hasn't been toward more frequent mild spells, but it was almost never anything close to wall-to-wall winter around here.

Naive question, I'm sure, but why is it that if there are common trending scenarios that virtually every pro on here seems to correctly recognize days out, how are those not better captured in the models by now? It feels like there's been similar discussion on certain types of storms for decades.

I got four just based on sticking the ruler in the snow this morning after the fact, probably closer to 5 if I'd done it properly throughout the storm. I believe the 7 in Babylon 20 minutes east of here. The NW to SE gradient shown in virtually all the forecast maps verified, at least in my neck of the woods.

That is perfectly stated. You'd go to bed hearing the magical "3 to 6" being mentioned, sure you were looking at a snow day, only to throw open the curtains Night Before Christmas style, quickly assess the situation, and realize you were still looking at grass. There's your baseball on the lawn, clear as day. You could almost hear the sad trombone.

My layman's take - In setups like this it's almost like trying to not only predict severe thunderstorms in July, but predict which towns are going to cash in. That was clear to me by the unusually frequent reference to banding in much of the forecasting. Compare to being under a "widespread thunderstorms" prediction. Some people get crushed, others get next to nothing. The difference is that in July most people - not us, but normal people - are just happy to have missed out, and they go about their day, rather than getting on the computer and writing blogs about it. This is a tough, imprecise business - I give the mets a lot of credit.

Looking at the snowfall reports on the Upton site, I'm really surprised to see just 4 reports for Nassau. I've often seen much more reports for far smaller storms. Just doing the ruler in the snow thing ths morning I ended up with 4 here. We did pretty well here from 10PM - 2AM. Given the initial burst and the compaction due to the sleet component which was there from like 8-10PM, if I was doing this with the board I'm likely more like 5. That was in the predicted range for my backyard. Looking at the Suffolk numbers, looks like a forecast that nearly verified or actually verified, just on the low end.

So much of it is about expectations. Prior to the 14th there was so much concern about a cold/dry, warm/wet pattern and how it would never snow again. Then the area averaged over 6" on Dec. 14th, and before the first flake began to melt there was wailing about how the second half of December would be one big extended torchfest. Yet here we are again with plowable snow in much of the area. After it rains Sunday/Monday, looks like we're in the 30s at best the rest of the week. There's not a member here, especially at the coast, who wouldn't have in October happily signed up for how this December has gone.

He must be really cold.

SE Nassau not quite moderate yet. Everything whitened. Sticking everywhere of course. Starting out today with a long walk on a bright 20 degree morning, staying below freezing all day as the high clouds started moving in, with flakes falling right on schedule. What a nice day after Christmas. Older I get, the more I try to enjoy these moments.

sorry about that

must....resist....Michael....Scott....joke.....

Great Odin's Raven what on earth is that?

Random question - who else remembers there was a storm awhile back - I can't remember if it was 5 or 15 years ago to be honest, where the NAM got it very right and the catchphrase on here was "You got NAM'd!" and that term stuck around for a little while before fading away. Anyone remember what storm that was?

sorry this is happening to you

Feels like an Old Milwaukee beer commercial. It doesn't get any better than this. That cringe was intentional. But true.

Upton's high end / low end probability maps show quite a range - for example, New Brunswick gets 8" in the high end, but a trace in the low end. Whenever I see this, in the few years that such maps have been published, my layman's takeaway is that there's big divergence among the models and/or a narrow jackpot zone, at least as of now. Is that an accurate take? Seems that way based on the maps that I've seen posted this morning.

Just the other day I stumbled into a thread highlighted in a twitter post, in which people were asking for advice on whether they should call the animal services, 911, etc due to a neighbor 'leaving' their huskies out in the cold and snow. Consistent with what you guys are saying here, the replies were along the lines of 'huskies love the cold and snow, they probably insist on staying outside' They said that if it's cold and raining that's a different story, but if it's dry it's totally fine and the dogs love it. My faith in humanity ticked up a bit. and I was actually pleasantly surprised to see, that the people asking about it had the sense to ask first before calling the police.