coastalplainsnowman

I think that last map broke JerseyShoreWxGuy

Not to tempt fate, but I'll believe the wind part of this when I see (edit: feel) it. Big wind numbers seem to very often be way overdone, or at least very isolated. Can't tell you how many times I've been out in a storm in which it was snowing hard enough for sure, but was practically calm when high winds were forecast.

These maps are actually running out of colors in their keys.

Looking forward to watching via my favorite cam there

On the bright side, who is going to do anything about it. And if you do the neighbor's sidewalk they'll never rat you out.

As someone I know said after visiting Home Depot today, "It's as if we're in spring. you'd have no idea there was a storm coming" because they have absolutely nothing left.

Also, again no matter what the outcome, for the next 30 years, the optimistic folks who like to say in the darkest hour of a dying threat "hey, sometimes all the models lose the storm and then bring it back" now have a great example to point to. "Well, remember back in 2026.."

I just learned that the NWS Hazardous Outlook page is available in multiple languages As a result, I am proud to say that I can now say Blizzard Warning in three languages: Spanish:Aviso de Ventisca French: Avertissement de blizzard English: Blizzard Warning

And yet their forecast continues to call for 6-10." I know those two things are not mutually exclusive, but just seems like WABC's hype machine is out of sync with the very weather forecast provider that they tout in the headline.

If there was an amen emoji available I would use it here.

This is great info, thank you. I was going to just click the Thanks emoji as I did and leave it that since I had nothing meaningful to contribute, except to say that I noticed this morning that as of the latest update the High End was kept in the update, but the Low End was dropped entirely. I'm guessing that's out of concern that whatever it might have currently shown, people will see that and not t take this seriously, in an update where 'take this seriously' is rightly the whole point.

Agreed. We here can imagine the possibilities without risk of being ridiculed for all eternity like he would be if he called for 30" and we ended up with 4. Upton's unprecedented High End / Low End disparity of 24-30" at one end and 0.5" at the other is off putting to me. I don't think I've seen even an 8" forecast storm with a 0.5" low end. Whatever is driving that would spook me from putting any huge numbers up too. You call for 15" and you get 25", no one will remember. You call for 25" and get 0.5" , no one will forget, ever.

Hopefully this is a bad analogy

Regardless of what happens, the USA v Canada gold medal game on Sunday at 8:15AM will be a nice distraction i- a fun diversion f things are still looking good.

I've never seen such a yuge disparity between the high end and low end Upton forecasts. Not even close! High End: 24-30" Low End: 0.5"

Is it just me or is SpongeBob's grin in your avatar getting wider each time you post today?

lol I see we're in the phase now where expectations get set so high that some people will be sad on Monday morning even if they get 19". And I include me in 'some people', because once I see those crazy numbers this close to the event, I start to cash them in. That's a me problem. But not a just me problem I bet lol.

I was thinking about that too, but if memory serves correctly, it seems like for at least 2 out of every 3 big storms that this is expected to happen, NE NJ somehow ends up outdoing LI regardless, to some surprise.

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want this thing too much closer. Seen this movie before.

Anymore? Ever?

The cyclical roller coaster here when catching up on the thread after a few hours is something to behold. It goes from it's looking bad, it's looking worse, looks really bad, throw in the towel, followed almost immediately by some model which suddenly gives hope, followed by a few more that follow suit, followed by more that show no storm, followed by heated debate, followed by a model that says GAME ON", then some quiet... and then... repeat. Every 90 minutes or so.

As TWC, Accuweather, etc love to do, they make it impossible for ~15 million people, and by far the largest viewership area on that map, to have any idea what they are thinking for their area. They feel it is more important to remind me in giant font that I live in New York. Not that I'm hanging on TWC's word, especially 4 days out, but either make your forecast clear or don't bother with the map.

I don't have to imagine it. I LIVED it.

Thanks. And, as was the consensus here yesterday, despite that 2.5 I measured this morning, by 2PM there was still less snowcover in my estimation than there was 24 hours prior. it was gone from whatever grassy surfaces it had accumulated on that much, and in had receded beyond where it was yesterday.

I don't mind it. The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us. One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this: It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right? Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way.