coastalplainsnowman

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose." On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross. If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

It's a good point. We're going to go back below freezing in a few hours and potentially not see above freezing again until not just the middle of next week, but middle of the *following* week. By that point the first calm 40 degree day with sunshine, whenever it happens again, is going to feel like a beach day.

I know this is a Master Of The Obvious thing to say, but the whole tone of the board leading up to these events, other than for the few who are able to keep emotions out of it, is entirely driven by expectations. The 12-18" for the city / LI being tossed around starting 3 days ago virtually guaranteed that there would be a lot of unhappy people. Had the early numbers been 1-3 and out to sea and evolved into even 4-8" plus sleet, the mood would be so much more chipper. Meanwhile, I can go back to now two different times this winter where there was much lamenting about how we were going to be cold and dry forever. Yet here we are again.

We should like both publications as they would have the storm going more to the right. The New York Times would have the low tracking over Pennsylvania. Relax just having some fun, submitting a post without the word sleet in it, except for that one time.

Happy to be convinced otherwise, but while I've seen storms trend consistently north, and less frequently storms trend consistently south, have we seen many storms trend consistently in one direction in all the major models 96-72 hours out, then suddenly and significantly reverse course? I assume that we don't see that much because as we get closer and closer to the event, the more likely the models are to be accurate?

Snowman92 is 4.842105 times more bullish about snow than Snowman19.

When I read this to myself I hear it in my Dad's voice.

Agreed. In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360. That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly. Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.* Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner. And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable. Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold. Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow: cold, moisture, and luck. That's very true.

It’s odd yet funny to see the models increasingly go mainstream. Listening to sports talk radio this morning and they’re saying the European model says this, the North American model says that, how about the GFS etc.

Assuming things stay on track of course, if the Bills won last weekend, we could have witnessed an epic AFC Championship at Foxboro this Sunday in the snow. I suppose nowadays they probably would have moved or postponed it though.

inches?

The way things are these days, the storm doesn't even have to materialize beyond a minor storm. If the models are still showing this at 5PM on Sunday, everything everywhere will be closed, even if not a flake has fallen from the sky yet.

An amendment to a thread title requires a) two thirds vote of the moderators -and- b) ratification by popular vote of the members representing three fourths of the counties comprising NYC metro

I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend. It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere.

My favorite webcam out there - seeing what it looks like now compared to when we're on vacation out there, sun setting, the lawn full, restaurants buzzing. I love the snow but that's pretty great too.

For anyone who cares, from a snow standpoint this playoff game in Foxboro could be fun to watch toward the end.

Very little to speak of here. Temp stubbornly mid 30s and the slushy ~0.5" that accumulated when it was a bit heavier is sliding off the cars etc. Just 3-4 miles north where I was this morning though different story. Probably between 1.5 and 2", accumulated on most surfaces other than roads, and was coming down good for awhile. Was drizzly there too as I was headed back here though.

well done

Wish I was there. Did we have "death band" in the list that was started for all the terms used here to describe heavy snow? That's a good one I think we missed. Adding it to the list..

Anyone here remember channel surfing 35-40 years ago to hear what everyone was saying about an incoming snowstorm, and there were always one or two guys who seemed to always be on the conservative side, almost sounded happy to announce that a storm was going to miss, or especially turn to 'plain rain' etc? Couldn't stand when they sounded happy. But you always wanted to see what those guys were saying, because on the rare occasions when they were talking big potential amounts you knew then that we could have something real on our hands.

Yeah but she cares if the PNA is negative amirite? sorry just wanted to sound smart

Why is it that there's an emoji and a negative term for people perceived as getting overly excited at the prospect of snow, but not a corresponding emoji and negative term for people who are just as excited when a potential for snow fizzles out? The latter group seems more questionable to me. It's like being a Mets fan vs being someone who doesn't root for any particular team, but just roots against the Mets all day. I think we should coin a new phrase for the latter group, and create an appropriate emoji. I propose the term bun.

This was the year of course that the preceding December was frigid. Snowed on Thankgiving if memory serves, and we got absolutely skunked on a big snow we were supposed to get in December. (1989 was a big year for skunking - see March 1989 which nailed AC and Montauk but NYC metro whiffed.) I remember Joe Cioffi on News12 informally betting the desk anchors that December that we'd see over 20" of snow before winter was done. Instead got about just 7" the rest of the way.

Memories of this classic:

In early December there was much fretting about how we were destined to a pattern of cold and dry. Lo and behold, a 6"+ snowstorm for everyone arrives on the 13th. Then, just as the final flakes were falling from that storm, one could not get through 3 replies without reading about the inevitable torch headed our way and how it was unlikely to snow again this millennium. Instead the last two weeks of December had one day in the 50s, sure, but multiple days with highs in the 30s, multiple sub-freezing highs, and a 4-8" snowstorm. Then it couldn't stop flurrying every night for 3-4 nights straight. No one knows with any certainty whether or it's going to snow or not 10-14 days out and especially beyond. When there's cold air forecast to be around for awhile, things have a way of happening. I'm taking it a couple of days at a time, and I won't at all be surprised if we see measurable snow in that timeframe. And that's based on nothing but being around for awhile and having seen this movie before. That and having stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.