coastalplainsnowman
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Everything posted by coastalplainsnowman
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I bet everything I own that this statement turns out to be true.
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Seems like a good time to ask: how much for Philly? (I wonder how many will get this reference lol)
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That story about the radio is awesome! In the rare times snow was in the forecast, working evenings at the mall as a kid I'd time my short break so I could head over to the electronics department in Macy's or JCPenney's and catch the weather guy on WPIX, who I knew would be on at 7:45. Sorry, banter I know, couldn't help it.
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Thanks - I qualified my timeframe for the 12" forecast point to 1980-1993 because of 1978 - as I recall anecdotally that one caught LI by surprise to some degree too tho right? I just remember from what my father said after coming home after being snowbound in NYC. Were some models were calling for it but the forecasts on TV/radio were lower than that? For 1980-1993 do I have that right?
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Amen. The total number of snowfalls greater than 10 inches between the early 70s and 1995 here was well under 10 total. As you say, a 3-6 forecast was a big deal. 6-12 was downright giddiness to a kid, and other than 1993 I don't think I ever saw a 12+" forecast map between 1980 and 1993. The Blizzard of '83 of course ended up well over that, but I don't think the forecasts ever caught up, and 1993 did have such maps, but that turned to rain too soon for most of LI. Contrast with the 2000-2018 period where over 2/3rd of the years had a 10" storm.
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The Great Dying, mass extinction, asteroids. Man do we need a storm to track, and fast. (edit: he says respectfully and in good fun)
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If I gave the impression that I'm hanging my hat on, or am enthusiastic about, a 10% chance 0.5" snow forecast, allow me to clarify that I am not. Honestly just thought that the map was interesting.
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Interesting. Yeah that shading of slightly more snow right along the spine of the island w/less north and south - can't say I've ever seen a forecast map like that before.
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I disagree. If I have $2.30 and my buddy in Boston has $7.90, it doesn't matter to me that he's supposed to have $19.30 - he still has more money than me. Sure, I can laugh at him about that, but he can still buy a #7 meal at McDonald's while all I can get is a Diet Coke.
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I think part of that is just the fact that it is the coast, and just the way it goes sometimes around here. It also seems like this winter isn't so atrocious so far once you get away from the immediate coast. The talk here has been so doom and gloom generally (edit: among the amateur / snow fan crowd like myself), that looking at the totals posted above, I was actually surprised to see how many within this forum's 'viewing area' are near or well over a foot. Just asking aloud here, Is that map so far off from norms for January 21st, again, just away from the coast? Even right at the coast, what's normal for this point in the season? Can't be more than 6-8" at best.
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More irritating about the weather here is how many nice Spring days get ruined. Can't count how many times I'd leave the office under a beautiful blue sky and high 60s, head down the Wantagh, seeing what looked like smoke in the distance, and be in damp and misty mid 50s by the time I was home. Thinking back, afternoon baseball practice was always tough as a kid here. The evenings from mid June to early August can be awesome though.
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Makes sense ‘cause this storm stinks.
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I was thinking too how 1-3" was basically a rounding error for many storms in recent years. I'd often log in here when a light to borderline moderate event was a possibility and it was a relative ghost town, because "2 to 4" had become the new "cloudy."
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It's hard to see how the Upton and Mt. Holly maps square, especially looking at the lollipop in Red Bank NJ vs what's forecast the south shore of LI. I realize its a tight gradient and the latitude difference isn't totally trivial, but still.
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That much barley is bad for the digestive system.
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Thanks, this is great. And that's absolutely right about the snow sticking around. We've had storms during the great run since 2000 in which 15" fell in the dead of winter that were totally gone so quickly that it was almost not to be believed. Yet back then a 5 inch snowfall would mess up my Newsday delivery work for weeks. It's not surprising but still noteworthy how Syosset's numbers look as compared to say at the other end of 135. Those numbers, especially from 80/81 - 84/85, average about 5" higher than what I usually see for LI. And you definitely know better than me that good as those numbers are, the sweet spot for LI a good 25 miles east of there are even better, right? The gradient between, say, Amityville and Stony Brook is significant.
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Whoever said earlier that at least in the 80s you could count on at least a few 4-6” events each year, I agree. In grade school we seemed to get precisely one snow day a year from them. Seemed like the very clippers that for the last two decades mean white rain around here were our go-to for a few 4-6 inchers a year back the . Everyone who was around back then remembers ‘Alberta Clipper’ right? That’s what almost all of them seemed to be.
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Barron’s Earth Science NYS Regents guide vibes.
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I'm sorry man I was going for a laugh but it came off wrong
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C'mon man, you've got to let folks vent a little lol. That post was small enough to be a classic 140 character tweet. Just because it snowed a lot in the past two decades doesn't mean he has to be happy with 1 inch of snow and ice. He knows he doesn't live in the Alps.
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lol true, but I'd rather win a million dollar lump sum lottery prize than a dollar a year for a million years, which is closer to our current rate.
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I was surprised at what LongBeach posted, so maybe what you say above explains it. I was just north of Sunrise and I remember driving into work hear Pat Pagano (who is still on the air btw, comfy as a winter fireplace) warning that temps were being very stubborn to get above freezing for that memorable storm. To my knowledge we never did get above freezing, or did so very late after being back home for the day. Granted, stumbling across wunderground almanac recently I realized that I've blocked out some of the albeit brief milder stretches of that winter, but still, from that locale, when I think of 93/94, I think snow, cold, ice, and sidestreets snowpacked for longer than I've seen before or since. I think of the best snow-on-snow I've ever seen, three days apart on a Tuesday and Friday in Feb, etc.
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It's just a matter of judgement. Folks here aren't making the 'Hey our parents smoked in the car and we didn't wear seatbelts. I love the good old days, why can't it still be that way' argument - that's a dumb argument. I think folks are just saying that the judgement these days seems to err too hard on the side of caution. Additionally - and I know this point has been made at some point here - if there's genuine concern about safety, then close the schools, don't have the dopey 2 hour delay, which just causes problems for everyone involved.
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I just checked the temperature from the reporting station at Hell Airport (KHLL.) It's below freezing.
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Is that anything new? I know nothing about the inner workings of these models, but generally, aren’t models often driven by the same statistical formulas which drive AI? I always assumed that was the case. Maybe it’s a marketing thing, calling it AI now?
