Jump to content

donsutherland1

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    21,370

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by donsutherland1

  1. donsutherland1
    A shower or thundershower is possible this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Behind the front, the coolest air mass so far this season will begin to overspread the region tomorrow. Temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s as clouds give way to sunshine. Afterward, New York City will likely see the mercury dip below 60° for the first time since June 11th on Wednesday morning. Thursday morning could again see the temperature fall toward or below 60° in New York City. Highs both days will be in the lower to middle 70s in the City. A warmer pattern will likely develop starting next weekend. Out West, cities such as Flagstaff, Las Vegas, and Phoenix remain on track for their hottest summer on record. Denver recently experienced its third extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 framework) of the year setting a new annual record. Del Rio is in the midst of its record third extreme heat event of the year. The heat there will intensify with the temperature making a run at the August monthly record on Wednesday and Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was +20.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.746 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (0.4° below normal).
  2. donsutherland1
    During the past hour, New York City received 1.12" of rain. 22 or 19% of the City's hourly 1.00"+ cases have occurred in August.
  3. donsutherland1
    The remnants of Debby earlier this month fundamentally reoriented the eastern North America pattern. The end result has been a much cooler scenario that has put August on a path that could lead to a cooler than normal monthly outcome. Heavy rain brought flooding to parts of the region today. In the nearby New York City suburbs, New Rochelle picked up 3.14" of rain. Fairfield County saw the heaviest rainfall with 6"-10" amounts recorded through 6 pm. Additional heavy rain is possible in thunderstorms that could affect parts of the region this evening into tonight. After a mild start to the work week tomorrow, the coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region. There is a possibility that even New York City could see the mercury dip below 60° for the first time since June 11th during midweek. A warmer pattern could develop starting next weekend. Out West, cities such as Flagstaff, Las Vegas, and Phoenix remain on track for their hottest summer on record. Denver recently experienced its third extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 framework) of the year setting a new annual record. Del Rio is in the midst of its record third extreme heat event of the year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was +21.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.608 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal).
  4. donsutherland1
    Phoenix's record lasted for one year. July 2024 saw the temperature average 103.2° at Needles, CA.
  5. donsutherland1
    Phoenix has been rewriting is record book, especially since 2020.
  6. donsutherland1
    Phoenix’s record streak of 80-degree lows ended today.
  7. donsutherland1
    Islip was 88. No intra-hour high temperature data is available for JFK, yet.
  8. donsutherland1
    Such commentary only shows that May does not understand the concept of a mean or average, even as it’s one of the most basic elements of statistics.
  9. donsutherland1
    When thunder roars…
  10. donsutherland1
    Fordham picked up 5.38” of rain. Bogota, NJ with 5.47” has the highest amount so far.
  11. donsutherland1
  12. donsutherland1
    Street flooding in the New Rochelle, Larchmont, Mamaroneck areas is occurring.
  13. donsutherland1
    The 1.41” of hourly rainfall from earlier this afternoon at Islip was the 10th highest amount on record for the summer.
  14. donsutherland1
    I will miss Debby’s remnants as I am out of town.
  15. donsutherland1
    Phoenix had its second hottest July and month on record. It tied the July and monthly records for most 100° highs, 80° lows, and 90° lows. For the first time, it experienced 31 100° high temperatures following a June with 30 100° high temperatures. Through July 31st, it had an ongoing streak of 51 consecutive 80° or above low temperatures (old record: 51 days, July 1-August 20, 2023). Its ongoing streak of 66 consecutive 100° highs ranked as the second longest on record. It ended July with a streak of 57 consecutive 105° or above highs (old record: 56 days, June 24-August 18, 2023). Numerous Western cities saw their hottest July and month on record.
  16. donsutherland1
    New York City's final mean temperature for July: 79.6° (2.1° above normal).
  17. donsutherland1
    July finished with a preliminary mean temperature of 79.7° in New York City. That was 2.2° above normal. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that August will likely be warmer than normal. However, there is a possibility that the second week of the month could feature a cool shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was -23.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.407 today. This will be the last discussion until after mid-August.
  18. donsutherland1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 2.7 2.8 2.9
  19. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that August will likely be warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was -23.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.842 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).
  20. donsutherland1
    Generally near normal readings will prevail through the remainder of July. An offshore system will continue to bring periodic clouds and showers tomorrow into Wednesday. Steadier rain is possible on Wednesday. Eastern New England and Long Island will likely see the highest rainfall amounts. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance suggests that August will likely be warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was -23.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.858 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).
  21. donsutherland1
    It seems as if with temperatures, his analysis is superficial and overly simplistic. He saw the larger extent and immediately assumed that the ice was recovering. He never considered thickness (old thick sea ice is very low). Thus, when conditions warmed, the illusory gains in extent quickly disappeared as the thin ice began melting away. Arctic sea ice extent is now the third lowest on record (JAXA) as of July 28th.
  22. donsutherland1
    The flaw in Martz's analysis is that the frequency of records (cold and warm) should decrease over time, as records become more difficult to break. Yet, following the Dust Bowl era the frequency of high temperature records has remained relatively stable (not shown is the decrease in cold records). Moreover, in a stable climate, the ratio of record highs and lows should be close to 1:1. Instead, the proportion of record highs to record lows has increased. The rising ratio of record highs to record lows is consistent with a warming climate.
  23. donsutherland1
    Generally near normal readings will prevail through the remainder of July. An offshore system will bring clouds and some showers tomorrow into Tuesday. Steadier rain is possible on Wednesday. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance suggests that August will likely be warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -23.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.975 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).
  24. donsutherland1
    Generally near normal readings will prevail through the weekend. An offshore system could bring clouds and some showers early next week, but it remains possible that the storm will pass far enough to the east to avoid bringing showers to much of the region. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -1.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.002 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).
  25. donsutherland1
    Portland is also seeing a noticeable increase in 90-degree days.
×
×
  • Create New...