donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow will be fair and seasonably cold.

The extended range of the EPS currently shows an evolution that could lead to a trough in the East between January 10-15. So, unlike last winter when a stubborn EPO+/AO+ pattern locked in, things could be different this time around.

Since 1950, there were 13 cases where the EPO was +1.000 or above while the AO was -1.500 or below for at least three consecutive days during the January 1-20 period. In 3 cases, the Arctic block extended southward into the Middle Atlantic region (January 1-4, 1955; January 15-17, 1998; and, January 1-3, 2003). Below are the composite 500 mb height anomalies and temperature anomalies for that cluster: Mean temperatures were the following: Boston: 33.0° New York City: 37.7° Philadelphia: 40.5° Washington, DC: 43.9° Only Boston saw accumulating snow during the above cases. Its biggest snowfall was 3.5" during January 15-16, 1998. The dynamical guidance is even warmer than these composite anomalies. The closest match from the above cases is the January 1-4, 1955 period. In sum, the forecast pattern is one that will likely favor above to much above normal temperatures and little or no snowfall through at least the first 10 days of January in much or all of the Middle Atlantic Region and southern New England.

After a cold start, temperatures moderated this afternoon. Temperatures generally peaked in the middle and upper 30s across the region. Meanwhile, on account of the strong storm that impacted the region on December 24 into December 25, more record warmth occurred in parts of Canada. That storm also brought blizzard conditions to parts of Nunavut today while eastern portions of that Province experienced unseasonable warmth. Daily record high temperatures included: Badger, NL: 51° (old record: 42°, 2001) Churchill Falls, NL: 36° (old record: 22°, 2011) Corner Brook, NL: 52° (old record: 41°, 2010) Hopedale, NL: 42° (old record: 36°, 1976) Pangnirtung, NU (66.15°N, 65.71°W): 39° (old record: 26°, 2000) St. John's, NL: 50°/10.0°C (old record: 50°F/9.8°C, 1977) Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably milder before cooler air returns to the region. The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first 10 days of January would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait. There is growing ensemble support for the latter outcome. The probability that the block will be anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador in the extended range can inhibit opportunities for snowfall. This can especially be the case should the block attempt to link up to the western Atlantic ridge. In coming days, it will become clearer whether the recent and still ongoing shift in the ensemble guidance toward that outcome will become the most likely scenario for the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10 days of January could be much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +15.15 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.954. On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.165 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.194. Based on the latest guidance, a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January is likely. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal winds at 1 mb and 10 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal wind at 30 mb will likely slacken considerably. There is the proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America. The recent snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue into the start of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0°.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle 30s by early afternoon. Some pictures from around Manursing Lake in Rye, NY:

It looks like a fairly strong event with the mean zonal winds reversing at 1 mb and 10 mb. It’s still uncertain about 30 mb. We’d have to see how the split occurs to have a better idea of its impact. Most, but not all, such cases favor Eurasia

That was a vortex-splitting event. Those typically favor Eurasia.

No. January 1973 had a SSW event, but winter 1973-74 did not.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 38° Newark: 39° Philadelphia: 38° Tomorrow will be fair and noticeably milder.

At 10:08 pm, the temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (58.1°N, 68.4°W) was 38° with drizzle. Earlier today, the temperature reached a daily record high of 40°. That broke the previous mark of 34°, which was set in 1961. The normal high and low temperature there for December 26 is 0° and -16° respectively.

Despite bright sunshine, the temperature peaked in the lower 30s across the region. Meanwhile, additional record high temperatures were broken in parts of eastern Canada today. Records included: Amherst, NS: 59° (old record: 46°, 2003) Bathurst, NB: 56° (old record: 39°, 2003) Cap-Chat, QC: 60° (old record: 36°, 2014) ***2nd consecutive 60° day for first time on record in meteorological winter*** Caribou: 55° (old record: 53°, 1964) Caribou, NS: 58° (old record: 48°, 2003) Charlottetown, PE: 56° (old record: 52°, 1964) Chéticamp, NS: 58° (old record: 46°, 2003) Gaspé, QC: 54° (old record: 48°, 1977) Goose Bay, NL: 49° (old record: 46°, 1964) Grand Étang, NS: 53° (old record: 46°, 2005) Halifax: 56° (old record: 52°, 1964) Mary's Harbour, NL: 51° (old record: 37°, 2001) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 53° (old record: 37°, 2014) Saint John, NB: 56° (old record: 55°, 1964) Sept-Îles, QC: 45° (old record: 42°, 1964) Yarmouth, NS: 59° (old record: 53°, 1964) The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first 10 days of January would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait. There is growing ensemble support for the latter outcome. The probability that the block will be anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador in the extended range can inhibit opportunities for snowfall. This can especially be the case should the block attempt to link up to the western Atlantic ridge. In coming days, it will become clearer whether the recent and still ongoing shift in the ensemble guidance toward that outcome will become the most likely scenario for the first half of January. Nevertheless, there still exists some possibility for a storm during the January 3-5 period that could produce snow. There has been some support among ensemble members for such event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +8.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.112. On December 25 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.192 (RMM). The December 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.150. Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal winds at 1 mb and 10 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal wind at 30 mb will likely slacken considerably. There is the proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America. The recent snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue into the start of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0°.

Near sunset today:

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 33° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder. Some final high temperatures in eastern Canada yesterday included: Cape-Chat, QC: 63°; Mary’s Harbour, NL: 51°; Quebec City: 51°.

000 NOUS41 KCAR 260353 PNSCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-261600- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1053 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2020 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... CHRISTMAS 2020 SETS ALL-TIME CHRISTMAS DAY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. IN CARIBOU, THE HIGH OF 57F BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 48F, LAST SET IN 2014, AND ALSO IN PRIOR YEARS. WEATHER RECORDS BEGAN IN 1939. THE AVERAGE HIGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 23F. IN HOULTON, THE HIGH OF 58F BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 53F, LAST SET IN 2014 AND 2003. WEATHER RECORD BEGAN IN 1948. THE AVERAGE HIGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 26F. IN MILLINOCKET, THE HIGH OF 59F BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 53F, SET IN 2015. WEATHER RECORDS BEGAN IN 1903. THE AVERAGE HIGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 28F. IN BANGOR, THE HIGH OF 61F BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 54F SET IN 2014 AND AGAIN IN 2015. THE AVERAGE HIGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 31F. $$ CB

The definition is qualitative, not quantitative. Measures such as the NAO and AO can provide related quantitative information. https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Blocking

It is now past midnight in parts of eastern Canada. Numerous daily record high temperatures have fallen in parts of Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. Records have also been toppled in parts of Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. Locations setting records at or just after midnight include Bathurst, NB; Charlottetown, PE; Halifax; Mary’s Harbour, NL; and Saint John, NB. Record high temperatures are likely to fall once midnight arrives in parts of eastern Quebec.

This evening, the temperature rose to 63° (17.2°C) at Cap Chat, Quebec. That broke the December record high temperature. The previous monthly record was 62° (16.7°C), which was set on December 21, 1957. Additional record high temperatures in parts of Canada this evening courtesy of the storm that impacted the region last night and earlier today: Goose Bay, NL: 47° (8.5° C) Mary’s Harbour, NL: 50° (9.9° C) Sept-Îles, QC: 44° (6.4° C)

I hope your family and you had a great Christmas.

Colder air around the backside of the storm that brought damaging winds, heavy rain, and mild temperatures has now overspread the region. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cold. As a strong storm pushed northward, unseasonably warm air covered parts of the Northeast and eastern Canada. Record high temperatures included: Bangor: 61° (old record: 54°, 2014 and 2015) ***Highest Temperature for 2nd Half of December*** Burlington: 65° (old record: 62°, 1964) Cap Chat, QC: 61° (old record: 44°, 2015) Caribou: 57° (old record: 54°, 2003 and 2014) ***Highest Temperature for 2nd Half of December*** Charlottetown, PE: 56° (old record: 54°, 1996) Fredericton, NB: 63° (old record: 54°, 2003) ***Highest Temperature for 2nd Half of December*** Gaspé, QC: 54° (old record: 51°, 2003) Goose Bay, NL: 46° (old record: 45°, 1964) Halifax: 56° (tied record set in 1996) Montreal: 56° (old record: 53°, 1964) Poughkeepsie: 65° (old record: 63°, 1964) Quebec City: 48° (old record: 43°, 2015) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 55° (old record: 42°, 2015) Saint John, NB: 59° (old record: 55°, 2003) Yarmouth, NS: 58° (old record: 55°, 2003) In parts of eastern Canada, record temperatures remain likely into Sunday. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air will push into Florida. Record low temperatures are possible in some parts of the state, especially along the Gulf Coast and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula tomorrow morning. The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first 10 days of January will provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall with the focus on the January 1-10 period. There is modest clustering of support among the EPS ensemble members for January 3-5. The AO- is particularly important for moderate or significant snowfalls in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. For the December 15-January 15, 1950-2020 period, the following percentages of select snowstorms have occurred when the AO was negative: New York City: 4" or more: 66% 6" or more: 80% 10" or more: 86% Philadelphia: 4" or more: 81% 6" or more: 85% 10" or more: 100% Further, an AO-/PNA+ pattern is especially favorable for moderate or significant snowstorms during the first half of January. For the January 1-15, 1950-2020 period, daily snowfall reached or exceeded 4" on 1.7% of days in New York City and 1.2% of days in Philadelphia. During AO-/PNA+ patterns, those respective frequencies were 2.3% and 1.7%. In short, moderate or significant snowfalls were 37% more common in New York City and 42% more common in Philadelphia during AO-/PNA+ patterns. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +4.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.040. On December 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.149 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.368. Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably. There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America. The recent snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue into the start of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0°.

After the storm:

At Caribou, the high temperature through 1 pm was 55° degrees. That broke the daily record of 48° set in 2003 and tied in 2014. It was also the warmest temperature on record for the second half of December. The previous record was 54°, which was set on December 21, 1973 and tied on December 18, 2000.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 909 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2020 THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1 INCH. ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... MONROE 2.50 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP 2 NE DANBURY 1.71 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE 1.52 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS FAIRFIELD 1.51 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP BETHEL 0.5 E 1.50 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS DANBURY AIRPORT 1.43 IN 0853 AM 12/25 ASOS DANBURY 1.41 IN 0848 AM 12/25 CWOP RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N 1.37 IN 0745 AM 12/25 COCORAHS DANBURY 3.0 W 1.25 IN 0745 AM 12/25 COCORAHS REDDING 1.25 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP SHERMAN 1.12 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS REDDING 1.4 E 1.10 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... 2 N DURHAM 3.00 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS MIDDLETOWN 2.84 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP DURHAM 2.25 IN 0852 AM 12/25 CWOP HIGGANUM 0.7 N 2.17 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS DURHAM 2.2 SSW 1.93 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS HIGGANUM 0.8 NE 1.80 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 2 W DURHAM 1.46 IN 0850 AM 12/25 AWS CLINTON 3.7 N 1.20 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S 1.05 IN 0735 AM 12/25 COCORAHS KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE 1.05 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... 2 S WOLCOTT 1.84 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS CHESHIRE 0.9 W 1.82 IN 0729 AM 12/25 COCORAHS PROSPECT 1.9 ENE 1.75 IN 0600 AM 12/25 COCORAHS WATERBURY 1.3 WNW 1.73 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS WALLINGFORD 1.54 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP SEYMOUR 1.5 NE 1.43 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS WATERBURY AIRPORT 1.33 IN 0851 AM 12/25 AWOS 1.2 W ANSONIA 1.32 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP MERIDEN AIRPORT 1.32 IN 0853 AM 12/25 ASOS MADISON CENTER 4.1 N 1.29 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE 1.17 IN 0750 AM 12/25 COCORAHS BETHANY 1.17 IN 0853 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 S WALLINGFORD 1.09 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS WOLCOTT 1.09 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS HAMDEN 1.06 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 ESE NEW HAVEN 1.06 IN 0854 AM 12/25 AWS WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW 1.02 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS MILFORD 1.01 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 E BRANFORD 1.00 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... WATERFORD EOC 2.26 IN 0846 AM 12/25 CWOP GROTON 1.89 IN 0853 AM 12/25 CWOP NEW LONDON 1.85 IN 0850 AM 12/25 AWS 2 SE NORWICH 1.71 IN 0850 AM 12/25 AWS NORWICH 2.5 NNE 1.55 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 1.54 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP QUAKER HILL 1.51 IN 0846 AM 12/25 CWOP GROTON AIRPORT 1.35 IN 0836 AM 12/25 ASOS 2.0 SE NORWICH 1.32 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP LISBON 1.31 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW 1.30 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS NIANTIC 1.1 SW 1.25 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS NORWICH 5.4 SE 1.23 IN 0730 AM 12/25 COCORAHS MYSTIC 3.4 NW 1.16 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 N NEW LONDON 1.08 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... OAKLAND 1.84 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP OAKLAND 0.9 SSE 1.65 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW 1.49 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 W RAMSEY 1.47 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS HASBROUCK HEIGHTS 1.43 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP FAIR LAWN 1.40 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 SW RAMSEY 1.30 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS 1 SSW FRANKLIN LAKES 1.29 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS OAKLAND 1.0 ESE 1.27 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 NE PARAMUS 1.26 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS RIVER VALE 1.20 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS TENAFLY 1.3 W 1.18 IN 0730 AM 12/25 COCORAHS PARK RIDGE 1.09 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP HACKENSACK 1.03 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP NEW MILFORD 1.02 IN 0850 AM 12/25 AWS ...ESSEX COUNTY... VERONA TWP 0.8 W 2.00 IN 0815 AM 12/25 COCORAHS LIVINGSTON 1.64 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE 1.63 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS WEST ORANGE 1.60 IN 0848 AM 12/25 CWOP CALDWELL 1.37 IN 0853 AM 12/25 ASOS WEST CALDWELL 1.35 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP BLOOMFIELD 1.34 IN 0849 AM 12/25 CWOP FAIRFIELD 1.22 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS 1 W ORANGE 1.19 IN 0855 AM 12/25 URBANET NEWARK 1.16 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ...HUDSON COUNTY... HARRISON 1.30 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS HARRISON 1.21 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP SECAUCUS 1.18 IN 0854 AM 12/25 AWS HOBOKEN 1.11 IN 0852 AM 12/25 CWOP WEEHAWKEN 1.02 IN 0854 AM 12/25 URBANET ...PASSAIC COUNTY... CHARLOTTESBURG RESERVOIR 2.48 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP WEST MILFORD 1.84 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW 1.78 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS RINGWOOD 1.70 IN 0810 AM 12/25 RAWS HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE 1.58 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS POMPTON LAKES 1.0 ENE 1.55 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW 1.50 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS HAWTHORNE 1.48 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP PASSAIC 1.29 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 NE CLIFTON 1.11 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ...UNION COUNTY... SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE 1.45 IN 0830 AM 12/25 COCORAHS WESTFIELD 0.6 NE 1.16 IN 0615 AM 12/25 COCORAHS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 1.21 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN 1.53 IN 0849 AM 12/25 CWOP BROOKLYN 1.02 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP BROOKLYN 1.01 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP ...NASSAU COUNTY... WOODBURY 2.02 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP SYOSSET 1.00 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP ...NEW YORK COUNTY... MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.30 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM GREENWICH VILLAGE 1.21 IN 0735 AM 12/25 AWS ...ORANGE COUNTY... USMA 3.08 IN 0755 AM 12/25 RAWS 1 S COLD SPRING 2.27 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS 0.8 N PORT JERVIS 2.12 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP WARWICK 2.02 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM VAILS GATE 1.80 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW 1.77 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 ENE PORT JERVIS 1.75 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS HARRIMAN 1.72 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS WASHINGTONVILLE 1.69 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP NEWBURGH 1.67 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP WARWICK 3.2 WNW 1.66 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS TUXEDO PARK 1.66 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS MONTGOMERY 1.34 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP CHESTER 1.22 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP OTISVILLE 1.22 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM MONTGOMERY 1.11 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP WALDEN 1.3 S 1.10 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... MAHOPAC 1.91 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS BREWSTER 1.63 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM 4 N CARMEL 1.62 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COOP ...RICHMOND COUNTY... STATEN ISLAND 1.34 IN 0846 AM 12/25 CWOP STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N 1.28 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS 1 W WILLOWBROOK 1.12 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... STONY POINT 0.7 NW 2.45 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS MONTEBELLO 2.42 IN 0853 AM 12/25 CWOP SUFFERN 2.40 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM SLOATSBURG 2.15 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP SPRING VALLEY 1.56 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 SSW MOUNT IVY 1.33 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS 1 SSW MOUNT IVY 1.29 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS NANUET 1.26 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS SPARKILL 1.16 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 NW HAVERSTRAW 1.13 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... BAITING HOLLOW 1.84 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP EASTPORT 1.63 IN 0828 AM 12/25 CWOP ORIENT 1.61 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP ORIENT POINT 1.60 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COOP EAST HAMPTON 1.53 IN 0835 AM 12/25 AWOS STONY BROOK 1.43 IN 0852 AM 12/25 CWOP CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N 1.42 IN 0600 AM 12/25 COCORAHS EAST HAMPTON 1.40 IN 0853 AM 12/25 CWOP BRIDGEHAMPTON 1.36 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP CUTCHOGUE 1.36 IN 0848 AM 12/25 CWOP SHIRLEY AIRPORT 1.35 IN 0756 AM 12/25 ASOS TERRYVILLE 1.33 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 WNW WADING RIVER 1.28 IN 0850 AM 12/25 AWS SHIRLEY 1.27 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP MONTAUK HIGHWAY 1.26 IN 0850 AM 12/25 AWS WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 1.22 IN 0853 AM 12/25 ASOS MILLER PLACE 1.20 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP RIDGE 1.18 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP UPTON 1.15 IN 0700 AM 12/25 COOP SOUTHOLD 1.13 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM LAKE RONKONKOMA 1.12 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE 1.12 IN 0715 AM 12/25 COCORAHS BLUE POINT 0.4 E 1.11 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE 1.11 IN 0821 AM 12/25 COCORAHS FARMINGVILLE 1.09 IN 0852 AM 12/25 CWOP STONY BROOK 1.08 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM SELDEN 1.04 IN 0852 AM 12/25 CWOP BAY SHORE 1.03 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP ISLIP 1.02 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 S 1.02 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS SAYVILLE 1.01 IN 0854 AM 12/25 CWOP SHINNECOCK HILLS 1.00 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... PEEKSKILL 0.4 N 2.16 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS PEEKSKILL 2.08 IN 0853 AM 12/25 CWOP SOMERS 1.74 IN 0855 AM 12/25 NYSM TARRYTOWN 1.61 IN 0847 AM 12/25 CWOP JEFFERSON VALLEY 1.56 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS OSSINING 1.55 IN 0851 AM 12/25 CWOP SHRUB OAK 0.6 WNW 1.55 IN 0630 AM 12/25 COCORAHS SHRUB OAK 1.55 IN 0630 AM 12/25 COOP HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 1.54 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS MOUNT KISCO 1.42 IN 0850 AM 12/25 CWOP SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW 1.36 IN 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS CHAPPAQUA 1.34 IN 0845 AM 12/25 CWOP 3 ESE GOLDENS BRIDGE 1.29 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS NORTH TARRYTOWN 1.24 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ARMONK 1.14 IN 0853 AM 12/25 CWOP MONTAUK AIRPORT 1.12 IN 0854 AM 12/25 ASOS EASTCHESTER 1.11 IN 0854 AM 12/25 AWS ELMSFORD 1.09 IN 0855 AM 12/25 AWS ARMONK 0.3 SE 1.08 IN 0830 AM 12/25 COCORAHS &&

000 NOUS41 KOKX 251008 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-252151- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 503 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region for wind gusts of at least 40 mph. Appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our home page at weather.gov/nyc. ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Greenwich 71 MPH 1131 PM 12/24 CWOP Stamford 70 MPH 0328 AM 12/25 CWOP Bridgeport 61 MPH 0354 AM 12/25 NOS-NWLON Bridgeport Airport 58 MPH 0352 AM 12/25 ASOS Bridgeport 53 MPH 0330 AM 12/25 CWOP Fairfield 49 MPH 1232 AM 12/25 CWOP Danbury Airport 47 MPH 0253 AM 12/25 ASOS Danbury 46 MPH 0305 AM 12/25 CWOP ...Middlesex County... 2 WSW Chester 40 MPH 0355 AM 12/25 AWOS ...New Haven County... Waterbury Airport 54 MPH 0407 AM 12/25 AWOS Meriden Airport 53 MPH 0353 AM 12/25 ASOS Hammonasset 49 MPH 0349 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Milford 48 MPH 0346 AM 12/25 CWOP Lighthouse Point 47 MPH 0327 AM 12/25 WXFLOW New Haven 45 MPH 0350 AM 12/25 CWOP New Haven Airport 44 MPH 0353 AM 12/25 ASOS Milford 41 MPH 0220 AM 12/25 CWOP ...New London County... Groton Airport 41 MPH 0256 AM 12/25 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 67 MPH 0151 AM 12/25 ASOS Hasbrouck Heights 55 MPH 1249 AM 12/25 CWOP Fair Lawn 50 MPH 1140 PM 12/24 CWOP Park Ridge 47 MPH 0101 AM 12/25 CWOP ...Essex County... Caldwell 53 MPH 1253 AM 12/25 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 50 MPH 0253 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Hoboken 49 MPH 1217 AM 12/25 CWOP Weehawken 42 MPH 1259 AM 12/25 URBANET Harrison 40 MPH 0200 AM 12/25 AWS ...Passaic County... 3 ENE West Milford 41 MPH 1240 AM 12/25 AWOS ...Union County... Newark Airport 52 MPH 1251 AM 12/25 ASOS Linden Airport 43 MPH 1155 PM 12/24 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 60 MPH 0310 AM 12/25 NYSM ...Kings County... 1 SSW Flatbush 54 MPH 0230 AM 12/25 NYSM Sheepshead Bay 47 MPH 0301 AM 12/25 CWOP Brooklyn 42 MPH 1200 AM 12/25 CWOP ...Nassau County... Great Neck 60 MPH 0119 AM 12/25 CWOP Wantagh 53 MPH 0255 AM 12/25 NYSM Bayville 52 MPH 0332 AM 12/25 WXFLOW 0.8 NW Uniondale 50 MPH 0320 AM 12/25 MESOWEST 1.3 NW Uniondale 49 MPH 0440 AM 12/25 MESOWEST Muttontown 49 MPH 0125 AM 12/25 CWOP 0.9 SW Manhasset 48 MPH 0300 AM 12/25 MESOWEST Valley Stream 47 MPH 0331 AM 12/25 CWOP Merrick 46 MPH 0325 AM 12/25 CWOP Oyster Bay 45 MPH 0331 AM 12/25 CWOP Carle Place 41 MPH 0210 AM 12/25 CWOP ...New York County... Midtown Manhattan 56 MPH 0150 AM 12/25 NYSM Central Park 47 MPH 0151 AM 12/25 ASOS ...Orange County... Warwick 60 MPH 1250 AM 12/25 NYSM Newburgh 52 MPH 0326 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 WSW Montgomery 52 MPH 0254 AM 12/25 AWOS Usma 48 MPH 0155 AM 12/25 RAWS Stewart Airport 46 MPH 0345 AM 12/25 AWOS Vails Gate 44 MPH 1256 AM 12/25 CWOP Otisville 41 MPH 1240 AM 12/25 NYSM ...Putnam County... Brewster 51 MPH 0355 AM 12/25 NYSM ...Queens County... Jackson Heights 67 MPH 0152 AM 12/25 CWOP NYC/La Guardia 63 MPH 0251 AM 12/25 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 62 MPH 0350 AM 12/25 NYSM NYC/JFK Airport 59 MPH 0151 AM 12/25 ASOS Breezy Point 58 MPH 0131 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Beechhurst 48 MPH 0202 AM 12/25 CWOP ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 55 MPH 0100 AM 12/25 NDBC 1 W Willowbrook 52 MPH 0100 AM 12/25 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 52 MPH 0235 AM 12/25 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 76 MPH 1248 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Brookhaven 64 MPH 0445 AM 12/25 CWOP Fire Island CG 59 MPH 0325 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Stony Brook 58 MPH 0104 AM 12/25 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 58 MPH 0332 AM 12/25 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 58 MPH 0353 AM 12/25 ASOS Great South Bay 55 MPH 0324 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Blue Point 54 MPH 0335 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Islip Airport 52 MPH 0356 AM 12/25 ASOS Great Gull Island 51 MPH 0405 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Orient 50 MPH 0330 AM 12/25 CWOP Stony Brook 50 MPH 0115 AM 12/25 NYSM Shirley Airport 49 MPH 0356 AM 12/25 ASOS Southold 48 MPH 0405 AM 12/25 NYSM East Moriches CG 47 MPH 0442 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Greenlawn 47 MPH 0353 AM 12/25 CWOP Orient 47 MPH 0342 AM 12/25 CWOP Ridge 47 MPH 0349 AM 12/25 CWOP Baiting Hollow 45 MPH 0414 AM 12/25 CWOP Miller Place 44 MPH 0125 AM 12/25 CWOP Islip 44 MPH 0339 AM 12/25 CWOP N. Babylon 43 MPH 0345 AM 12/25 CWOP Cutchogue 42 MPH 0318 AM 12/25 CWOP Sinai Harbor 42 MPH 0154 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Northport 41 MPH 0126 AM 12/25 CWOP Fishers Island Airport 41 MPH 0407 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Eastport 40 MPH 0328 AM 12/25 CWOP Napeague 40 MPH 0359 AM 12/25 WXFLOW ...Westchester County... Somers 71 MPH 0330 AM 12/25 NYSM Tappan Zee Light 14 65 MPH 0118 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Peekskill 52 MPH 0253 AM 12/25 CWOP Croton 51 MPH 0158 AM 12/25 WXFLOW White Plains Airport 46 MPH 0356 AM 12/25 ASOS New Rochelle 45 MPH 0101 AM 12/25 CWOP ...Maritime Stations... ...Connecticut... Groton 65 MPH 0433 AM 12/25 CWOP 1 ESE Norwalk 63 MPH 0209 AM 12/25 WXFLOW 2 SSE New Haven 46 MPH 0354 AM 12/25 NOS-PORTS 2 S Groton 45 MPH 0340 AM 12/25 NDBC USCG Academy 40 MPH 0402 AM 12/25 WXFLOW ...New Jersey... Robbins Reef, NJ 78 MPH 0242 AM 12/25 NOS-PORTS ...New York... Kings Point 61 MPH 0300 AM 12/25 NOS-NWLON 1 NW Sands Point 60 MPH 0315 AM 12/25 NDBC 15 S Atlantic Beach 56 MPH 0300 AM 12/25 NDBC 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 51 MPH 0330 AM 12/25 NDBC Fire Island CG 49 MPH 0328 AM 12/25 WXFLOW City Island 45 MPH 0100 AM 12/25 CWOP Point O Woods YC 45 MPH 0334 AM 12/25 WXFLOW 19 SSE East Hampton 43 MPH 0320 AM 12/25 NDBC Shinnecock 43 MPH 0344 AM 12/25 WXFLOW Bay Shore 40 MPH 0332 AM 12/25 CWOP &&

Morning thoughts... As of 7 am, record high temperatures had fallen in Bangor and Montreal. Burlington had tied its record high temperature. The mercury was also likely to push to record levels in Quebec City and Caribou in coming hours. Rain will come to an end later this morning or this afternoon in eastern sections of the region after a general 1.00”-2.00” soaking. The temperature will gradually fall from 7 am figures as the front pushes eastward. At 7 am, temperatures were generally in the middle and upper 50s across most of the region. 7 am temperatures included: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Tomorrow will be fair with highs in the 30s.

A strong storm will pass to the west of the region tonight bringing a general storm total 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts. The storm will also bring high winds with gusts of 60 mph to many parts of the region and 70 mph to coastal areas. After a warm start with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s, temperatures will fall tomorrow as colder air returns. Caribou, which saw its first-ever 60° December temperature earlier this month will very likely set a daily record high temperature tomorrow. The existing daily temperature record is 48°, which was set in 2014. In the wake of that storm, the unseasonably warm air will be driven into Atlantic Canada where record high temperatures are likely tomorrow through Sunday. Unseasonably cold air will push into Florida. Record low temperatures are possible in some parts of the state, especially along the Gulf Coast and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula, tomorrow and especially Saturday. The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first week of January will provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall for the December 21-January 10 period, with the focus on the January 1-10 period. There is some clustering of support among the EPS ensemble members for January 3-5. The AO- is particularly important for moderate or significant snowfalls in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. For the December 15-January 15, 1950-2020 period, the following percentages of select snowstorms have occurred when the AO was negative: New York City: 4" or more: 66% 6" or more: 80% 10" or more: 86% Philadelphia: 4" or more: 81% 6" or more: 85% 10" or more: 100% Further, an AO-/PNA+ pattern is especially favorable for moderate or significant snowstorms during the first half of January. For the January 1-15, 1950-2020 period, daily snowfall reached or exceeded 4" on 1.7% of days in New York City and 1.2% of days in Philadelphia. During AO-/PNA+ patterns, those respective frequencies were 2.3% and 1.7%. In short, moderate or significant snowfalls were 37% more common in New York City and 42% more common in Philadelphia during AO-/PNA+ patterns. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +4.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.921. On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.366 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.901. Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably. The recent snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue into the start of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.8°.