donsutherland1

The temperature in Central Park is now 37 degrees. That is the coldest May reading in New York City since May 9, 1977 when the temperature fell to 36.

Wonderful photo of the exceptionally late-season snow.

Yes. The last time Central Park dropped below 40 in May was May 1, 1978 when the temperature fell to 38.

At midnight, it was 41 degrees in New York City. That’s the coldest May temperature there since May 10, 2010 when the temperature also reached 41 degrees. North and west of the City, snow was falling in parts of New Jersey and New York State. Courthouse Square in Delhi, NY was covered in a blanket of snow. http://www.co.delaware.ny.us/webcam.htm

A storm will track east-northeastward across the region tonight. As exceptionally cold air for the season works into the storm's circulation, the rain could change to snow or flurries before ending, north and west of Newark and New York City. Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State eastward into New England could see a rare accumulation of snow in May. Except for higher elevations, any accumulations should be light. Earlier today, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, and Rochester saw a trace of snow. As the storm moves away, the potential exists for near record to record low temperatures in parts of the region tomorrow morning. New York City could see its first May temperature in the 30s in more than 40 years. Daily record low temperatures for May 9 include: Albany: 27°, 1956 Allentown: 31°, 1947 and 1956 Atlantic City: 32°, 1947 and 1981 Binghamton: 27°, 1966 Boston: 35°, 1977 Bridgeport: 37°, 1966, 1976, and 1977 Harrisburg: 32°, 1947 Hartford: 28°, 1956 Islip: 36°, 1977, 1985, and 1987 New York City-JFK: 38°, 1977 New York City-LGA: 37°, 1947 New York City-NYC: 35°, 1947 Philadelphia: 33°, 1933 Poughkeepsie: 27°, 1950 and 1956 Providence: 29°, 1956 Scranton: 31°, 1966 White Plains: 33°, 1977 From 2000 through May 8, 2020 8 pm in New York City, there were 27 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 16 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Below 38°: 36°, May 9, 1977 Below 36°: 35°, May 9, 1947 Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moderation will likely commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +5.38 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. On May 7, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.325 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.605. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. That probability will increase markedly through mid-month as the coldest anomalies of the month take hold. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.

Happy birthday, Josh.

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures soared into the middle 60s across the region. This latest taste of spring will be short-lived. Another storm coming out of the Tennessee Valley could bring a cold rain to the region later tomorrow. As exceptionally cold air for the season works into the storm's circulation, the rain could change to snow tomorrow night, particularly north and west of Newark and New York City. Parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State eastward into New England could see a rare accumulation of snow in May. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. From 2000 through May 6, 2020, there were 26 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Below 38°: 36°, May 9, 1977 Below 36°: 35°, May 9, 1947 Moderation will likely commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -11.24 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.545. On May 6, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.605 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.640. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the middle 60s. Two photos:

That’s an error. That day, there was hail. The temperature range was 80-58.

The system for today's light rain is now moving away. Light rain was still falling across eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut. This evening's low temperature of 45°, was the coldest May reading since May 15, 2019 when the thermometer dipped to 44°. In the wake of the system, tomorrow should see sunshine with readings rebounding into the lower 60s. However, the respite will be short-lived. Another storm could bring a cold rain to the region on Friday. As exceptionally cold air for the season works into the storm's circulation, the rain could change to snow, particularly north and west of Newark and New York City. Parts of central New York State eastward into New England could feature a rare accumulation of snow in May. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. During 2000-2019, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Below 38°: 36°, May 9, 1977 Below 36°: 35°, May 9, 1947 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -10.17 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.363. On May 5, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.645 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.041. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Under gray skies, the arrival of light rain, and temperatures in the upper 40s, few people were outdoors this evening. The unseasonably chilly weather imposed social distancing in the parks where the effort had shown visible signs of fraying in recent days when sunshine was in abundant supply.

A storm tracking northeastward off the North Carolina Coast will bring periods of rain and cool temperatures to the region tomorrow. Rainfall amounts are likely be be 0.25" or less except for southeastern New England where 0.50" to 1.00" with some locally higher amounts are possible. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -1.74 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.300. On May 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.050 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.393. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Under bright sunshine the temperature rose into the lower 60 this afternoon after a brisk morning with temperatures in the 40s. Two photos:

Last weekend's brief bout of warmth is now a memory. Colder air is now drilling into the region. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +5.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.631. On May 3, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.391 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.475. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Today was another warm day with temperatures again rising into the 70s and even 80s across the region. At Central Park, the temperature peaked at 80°. The last time the temperature reached 80° in New York City was October 2, 2019 when the temperature hit a daily record of 93°. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 72°; Hartford: 81°; Islip: 73°; New York City: 80°; Newark: 80°; and, Philadelphia: 79°. This weekend's brief bout of warmth will become a memory in coming days. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +7.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.438. On May 2, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.361 (RMM). The May 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.414. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

A notably warmer weekend is underway. Today, the temperature reached 70° in Central Park hit 70° for the first time since March 20 when the thermometer reached 77°. High temperatures included: Allentown: 73°; Bridgeport: 74°; Harrisburg: 72°; Islip: 72°; New York City: 73°; Newark: 74°; and, Philadelphia: 73°. Some parts of the region could experience similar or even warmer high temperatures tomorrow. Nevertheless, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May. The SOI has seen an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +3.77 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.487. On May 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.412 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.611. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May.

This afternoon the temperature topped out at 73° in New York City. Some scenes:

Thanks. Stay healthy, too.

Thanks. I hope thing change soon.

May began with a continuation of the cooler than normal weather that prevailed in April. However, as the system responsible for the recent rain and clouds departed, temperatures spurted into the middle 60s late in the day. Unlike the system earlier in the week, the most recent storm largely delivered the 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts as had been modeled. Two-day rainfall amounts included: Albany: 0.67"; Allentown: 1.02"; Binghamton: 1.63"; Bridgeport: 1.09"; Harrisburg: 1.55"; Islip: 0.91"; New York City: 0.91"; Newark: 0.59"; Philadelphia: 0.34"; Poughkeepsie: 1.09"; and, Scranton: 1.06". A notably warmer weekend is in store. Readings could soar into the 70s in New York City and even southern New England, especially on Sunday. The last time Central Park hit 70° or above was on March 20 when the thermometer reached 77°. Nevertheless, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May. The SOI has seen an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +0.02 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.685. On April 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.605 (RMM). The April 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.751. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Clouds broke this afternoon. As a result, temperatures rose quickly into the middle 60s. This weekend could see readings in the 70s across much of the region. Two photos from this evening:

Morning thoughts... This weekend, the temperature could reach or exceed 70 degrees in New York City for the first time since March 20 when the thermometer topped out at 77 degrees. April’s monthly maximum temperature was just 68 degrees. That was the coldest April maximum temperature and the first one in the 60s since April 1940 when the monthly high temperature was 67 degrees. However beyond the coming weekend, the generally cool pattern that predominated in April will likely reassert itself. Generally cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through at least the first half of May, which should set the stage for a cooler than normal May in the region.

A cooler than normal April is now concluding. New York City had a mean temperature of 50.4°, which was 2.6° below normal. Periods of heavy rain were moving from south to north along a slow-moving front this evening. Additional rain is likely tomorrow. Two-day rainfall amounts will likely range from 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00" The highest amounts will likely be north and west of New York City and Newark. In the wake of the system, warmer conditions will return this weekend. However, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1.5° to 3.5° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moderation could occur near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May. The SOI has seen an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +0.43 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.766. On April 29, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.747 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.916. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. May will likely be cooler than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England region with anomalies of 1°-2° below normal in much of the region.

Four photos from early this evening ahead of the front and possible squall line:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.4 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 0.5 0.9 1.1 2.8 1.0