donsutherland1

Back on June 22, the SOI fell to -42.04. Then, it was noted that the SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). By June 30, 90° or above days for select cities were: Boston: 0; New York City: 1; Philadelphia: 5; and, Washington, DC: 14. Through today, those totals are: Boston: 6; New York City: 6; Philadelphia: 15; and, Washington, DC: 28. Those numbers will increase further this weekend. A period of intense heat has moved into the East. Tomorrow and Sunday, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could see high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew point figures above 75°. Following the coming weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 98% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 79% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.5°-65.3°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -6.03 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.234. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.006. That is the 16th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 16 consecutive days was June 29-July 14, 2008 (16 consecutive days). The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 85%.

Parts of the region received more than 2.00" rain over the past two days. Through 9 pm, Bridgeport's rainfall for today was 2.74". That broke the daily record of 2.21" precipitation, which was set in 1965. Bridgeport's 2-day total precipitation reached 3.60". New York City had picked up 2.33". The implied probability that New York City will receive 50.00" or more precipitation this year is currently 74%. A period of intense heat is now imminent for the East. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could see one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew points above 75°. Meanwhile, following this weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 96% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 72% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.0°-65.1°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -12.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.006. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.812. That is the 15th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 15 consecutive days was June 11-25, 2017 (15 consecutive days). The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 82%.

Probably. My confidence in the warmth is greater than it is with the precipitation right now.

With 1.75" rain through 11:08 pm, New York City's year-to-date precipitation has surpassed 30.00". New York City's year-to-date precipitation for 2019 is now 30.02". New York City remains on track for its second consecutive year with 50.00" or more precipitation.

Over the past hour, Central Park picked up 1.14" rain and LaGuardia Airport received 1.36". A period of intense heat lies ahead for the East. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week into perhaps the start of next week (especially Friday through Sunday). The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above in New York City and upper 90s to 100° elsewhere in the Middle Atlantic region is on the table. Ahead of the excessive heat, the remnants of Barry will likely bring 1.00"-2.00" rain with locally higher amounts, some of which could approach or exceed 3.00" by the time the precipitation ends tomorrow. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 95% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 69% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 62.8°-65.1°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -11.33 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.480. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.808 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.743. That is the 14th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 14 consecutive days was June 11-25, 2017 (15 consecutive days). The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.5°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 82%.

Thunderstorm over the Long Island Sound early this evening.

Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. Before then, the remnants of Barry will likely bring 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts to the region. Some of the guidance is suggesting that the system could tap some Atlantic moisture resulting in a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts in parts of eastern New England, including Boston. Meanwhile, Anchorage appears headed for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 92% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 67% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. 12/18 (67%) of its 60.0° or warmer months occurred in 2000 and afterward and 6/18 (33%) occurred 2015 or later. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -6.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.494. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 15, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.732 (RMM). The July 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.835. The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.5°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 81%.

In part due to historic heat in parts of Europe (where more extreme heat could develop next week), the GISS global temperature anomaly for June was +0.93°C. That surpassed the June record of +0.82°C, which was set in 2016. The January-June 2019 period ranks 3rd warmest on record. In the East, the heat has yet to be severe. However, that is about to change later this week. Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -15.02 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.650. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.838 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.088. The first half of July was much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. In Central Park, the July 1-15 mean temperature was 79.0° (18th warmest on record). Records for New York City go back to 1869. In Philadelphia, the mean temperature was 79.7° (15th warmest on record). Records in Philadelphia go back to 1872. In Washington, DC, the July 1-15 mean temperature was 81.1° (19th warmest on record). Records for Washington, DC go back to 1871. The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 80.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 80%. 　 　 　

The probability of summer's most intense heat wave to date later this week has increased. Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -26.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.724. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 13, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.096 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.394. The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 79.0° (20th warmest on record) to 79.4° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 80.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 81%. The probability of an 80° or above mean temperature has increased to nearly 47%.

I agree. Yes, there was the half Manhattanhenge. I'm sure at least some people turned out for it, as the view would still have been quite nice.

While I don't see consecutive 100 degree days in Central Park, the probability of summer's most intense heat so far has increased.

Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of next week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. Meanwhile, earlier today Hurricane Barry made landfall in Louisiana. Flooding rains are likely across a portion of that state overnight and tomorrow. Further west, aided in part by the circulation around Barry, Brownsville and Corpus Christi set daily record high temperatures. Each city had a maximum temperature of 102°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -19.82 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.771. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 12, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.404 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.473. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 10 consecutive days. The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.5° (29th warmest on record) to 79.3° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 77%.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose into the upper 80s toward 90° across the New York City region, including parts of Long Island. Five photos from the Theodore Roosevelt Sanctuary at Oyster Bay Cove:

Following 0.79" rain yesterday, partly sunny skies prevailed over New York City today. Yesterday's largest rainfall in the greater New York City region was 3.46", which was measured at Oakland (1 SSE), New Jersey. Today's sunshine concluded with a picturesque Manhattanhenge sunset. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -20.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.801. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 11, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.482 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.392. The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.4° (31st warmest on record) to 79.2° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 74%.

A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely in much of the Middle Atlantic region tonight into tomorrow with isolated figures of 2.00" or more depending on where the thunderstorms train. Already, as of 7 pm, Allentown has picked up 2.75" rain for today. The old daily record was 1.17", which was set in 1950. Allentown has received. 36.64" precipitation year-to-date, which makes 2019 that city's 91st wettest year on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -19.33 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.929. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 10, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.397 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.622. The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.2° (32nd warmest on record) to 79.2° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature just below 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 70%.

I think it's low. EWR might have some shot. A better shot might exist in August (except for tree-covered Central Park).

On July 9, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent fell below 8 million square kilometers (JAXA) to 7,953,297 square kilometers. That is the earliest date on record for less than 8 million square kilometers of ice. The previous earliest such date was July 10. That record was set in 2011 and tied in 2012.

The first 10 days of July featured above and much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. That theme will likely continue through July with only a few breaks. In addition, the prospect of at least one heat wave in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England region could increase during the second half of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -8.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.299. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 9, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.622 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.909. As had been seen from the prior MJO and SOI data, the first 10 days of July proved much warmer than normal (mean: 78.9°; 2.9° above normal; tied with 1934 for the 25th warmest July 1-10 period) and drier than normal in the region (precipitation: 0.06" 1.25" below normal). Since 1974 when MJO data was first reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days were followed by warmer and drier than normal weather during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, cases when the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period saw July 1-15 temperature average approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature just below 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 70%. 　 　

With a high temperature of 81° yesterday, Anchorage has now had four consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 80° or above. That streak set a new record. The prior record was three consecutive days, which occurred June 15-17, 2015. The high temperature at Bethel was 95°, which surpassed the previous all-time record of 90° from June 17, 1926.

Today, New York City had its third 90° reading of the year. Parts of the region also experienced thunderstorms with drenching downpours. Meanwhile, the historic heat continues parts of Alaska. Bethel recorded a high temperature of 93°. That set a new all-time record high figure. The old record was 90°, which was set on June 17, 1926. Port Alsworth Airport also hit 90° today. For Anchorage where the temperature had reached a near-record 79° this afternoon, 2015 or later accounts for 85 daily record-breaking or record-tying high temperatures. Since 2010, that figure is 121 days. 2019, alone, has accounted for 11 daily record high temperatures and 6 daily record-tying high temperatures. Records go back to November 1953. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving. The SOI was -1.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.368. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and continue beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On July 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.631 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.414. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.5° in New York City. That would be the 27th warmest first 10 days of July since daily records were first kept back in 1869. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 60%.

Two photos from a heavy thunderstorm that passed through southern Westchester County a short time ago:

As a cold front slices through the region later tomorrow, there will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. The greatest risk appears likely over a portion of New England this time around. Nevertheless, much of the region has a chance of experiencing a strong thunderstorm with heavy downpours and possibly gusty winds. Meanwhile, the historic heat continues parts of Alaska. As of 4 pm AKD, Anchorage had a high temperature of 81°. That broke the previous daily record of 77°, which was set in 1999. Anchorage has now set or tied daily record high temperatures on 8 of the last 13 days. Anchorage has also had five days on which the temperature reached 80° or above. The previous record was four days, which was set in 2015. Yesterday's high temperature in Anchorage was 90°. That was that city's first-ever 90° reading and it smashed the previous all-time record high temperature of 85°, which was set back on June 14, 1969. To put things into a statistical perspective, that reading was nearly 5.8 standard deviations above the normal high (1989-2018 base to reflect Anchorage's rapid ongoing warming). The previous all-time record high was equivalent to a 106° temperature in New York City (the current record there). The new figure is the equivalent of a 112° temperature. Through 4 pm AKD Anchorage currently has a mean temperature of 68.8° for the past 7 days. Prior to 2019, the 7-day record high average was 66.4°, which was set during the July 19-25, 2013 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving. The SOI was -3.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.232. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and continue beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On July 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.406 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.111. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.5° in New York City. That would be the 27th warmest first 10 days of July since daily records were first kept back in 1869. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 56%.

The daily high temperature reached 90.

At 5 pm AKD, Anchorage had a temperature of 89°. That smashed the old all-time record high temperature of 85°, which was set on June 14, 1969.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose to 90° in New York City's Central Park for the second time this year. Meanwhile, on the heels of its warmest June on record, the first four days of July are the warmest four-day period on record in Anchorage. As of 4 pm AKD, Anchorage has had a high temperature of 85°. That ties Anchorage's all-time record high temperature, which was set back on June 14, 1969. Anchorage currently has a mean temperature of 70.5° for the July 1-4 period. The old record was 68.4°, which was set during June 15-18, 2015. The 7-day average is 68.1°, which also sets a new record. Prior to 2019, the record was 66.4°, which was set during the July 19-25, 2013 period. The first week of July appears likely to have a 70° or above mean temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving. The SOI was -2.46 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.897. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and continue beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On July 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.108 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.632. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.5° in New York City. That would be the 27th warmest first 10 days of July since daily records were first kept back in 1869. The second half of July should not be as warm relative to normal, though much warmer conditions could redevelop near the end of the month. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 56%.