donsutherland1

A severe thunderstorm with hail moved through parts of New York City early this evening. Parts of the region could again see some locally strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +4.43. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.607. On June 28, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.305 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.464. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

A strong thunderstorm passed to the south and west of Larchmont bringing hail to parts of New York City while grazing Larchmont. In its wake, there was a double rainbow.

New York City saw its second 90° day of the month and year today. A few parts of the region experienced strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -0.70 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.657. On June 27, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.467 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.666. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

Yes to both.

It was taken from Umbrella Point within Manor Park.

Two photos from today:

Today saw New York City's first measurable precipitation since June 11. Drier weather should follow tomorrow. In Europe, Norway experience record heat. Some highlights: Bromoysund: 82° (tied June record) Orland Iii: 84° (new June record) Roros Lufthavn: 82° (new daily record) Trondheim: 93° (new all-time record) A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -4.64 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.566. On June 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.676. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler across the region under considerable cloudiness with occasional showers and thundershowers. A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which is now moving into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -13.64 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.271. On June 25, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.693 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.802. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

Tomorrow will be another similar day as today. Temperatures should again climb into the middle and perhaps even upper 80s. A sustained generally warmer than normal pattern is now in place. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which is now moving into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -3.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.258. On June 24, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.818 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.818. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

A disturbance moved into northern New England and southern Canada this morning. As a result, morning clouds gave way to abundant afternoon sunshine. Temperatures again rose well into the 80s across the region. Tomorrow will again see partial sunshine with readings in the lower and middle 80s across the area. A few areas could see some showers or thundershowers, but again many areas will remain dry. Meanwhile, parts of northern and western Europe experienced record warmth today. Daily records included: Alesund, Norway 75°; Humberside, UK: 82°; Jersey, UK: 82°;London-Gatwick: 93° (tied June record); and, Vasteras, Sweden: 84°. A sustained generally warmer than normal pattern is now in place. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which is now moving into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +4.92 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.151. On June 23, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.818 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.814. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

Some locations in Maine and New Brunswick have each reached 99 degrees. Additional data may have come out since then, but I have not yet seen any higher readings having been noted.

Temperatures again rose into the middle and upper 80s today. Northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick again saw some record heat. High temperatures included: Burlington: 96° (old record: 93°, 1888 and 1975) Caribou: 91° (tied record set in 1975 and tied in 1983) Edmundston, New Brunswick: 90° (old record: 81°, 2014) Miramichi, New Brunswick: 93° (old record: 85°, 2013) Quebec City: 91° (old record: 85°, 2003) Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec: 88° (old record: 81°, 1999) Sherbrooke, Quebec: 91° (old record: 78°, 2009) Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures well into the 80s. A few locations could experience a thunderstorm during the afternoon or evening hours. A sustained generally warmer than normal pattern is now in place. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. Overnight and today, the ECMWF backed off on the extreme heat to start July and the GFS backed off on its idea of an unprecedented cool spell with three consecutive high temperatures in the 60s in New York City during the June 30-July 2 period. Based on the EPS and GEFS and overall pattern evolution, temperatures will likely be above normal as July commences (probably with high tempertures in the middle or perhaps upper 80s in New York City). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +8.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.044. On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.825 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.845. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

This afternoon, the temperature reached 90° at Central Park. That was New York City's first 90° or above temperature this year. The last time the temperature reached 90° in Central Park was October 2, 2019 when the temperature peaked at a daily record high figure of 93°. Elsewhere in the Northeast, high temperatures included: Albany: 95° (tied record set in 1954); Bridgeport: 90°; Burlington: 96° (old record: 92°, 1921); Hartford: 94°; Islip: 88°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 89°. In addition, Montreal set a daily record high temperature of 94° (old record: 90°, 1957) and Quebec City reached a daily record 91° (old record: 90°, 2003). Tomorrow will be another very warm and generally dry day. The temperature could again approach or perhaps even reach 90° in New York City. Precipitation will likely remain below to much below normal in the region through the remainder of June. The long advertised sustained warmer than normal pattern has now developed. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The 12z ECMWF hints at the possibility of extreme heat to begin July. In stark contrast, the 18z GFS shows high temperatures of 67° on June 30, 64° on July 1, and 66° on July 2 in New York City. Since regular recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has never had three consecutive days with high temperatures below 70° during the June 30-July 31 period. Based on the EPS and GEFS and overall pattern evolution, the operational GFS is an outlier. Readings will likely be above normal as July commences. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +2.46 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.005. On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.849 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.732. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

As of 2 pm, the temperature had reached a high of 90° in Central Park. That is New York City's first temperature of 90° or above this summer. The last time Central Park reached 90° or above was October 2, 2019 when the temperature topped out at a daily record high temperature of 93°.

This afternoon, the temperature rose to 88° at Central Park. That was New York City's highest temperature since October 2, 2019 when the mercury topped out at 93°. Tomorrow will be another very warm and generally dry day. Precipitation will likely remain below to much below normal in the region through the remainder of June. A major pattern change is continuing to evolve in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -14.62 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.235. On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.731 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.513. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

Across the region, temperatures rose into the middle 80s. Meanwhile, Caribou hit 93°, which surpassed the previous daily record of 91°, which was set in 1988. In the Arctic, sea ice extent was 9.804 million square kilometers on June 19. That was the second lowest figure on record for that date. A major pattern change is continuing to evolve in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -33.95 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.152. On June 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.508 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.384. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5°.

Record heat again prevailed in northern Maine, parts of Quebec, and in New Brunswick. High temperatures included: Bathurst, New Brunswick: 96° (old record: 91°, 1995) Caribou: 96° (old record: 91°, 1965) ***Tied All-Time Record*** Edmundston, New Brunswick: 94° (old record: 88°, 2016) Fredericton, New Brunswick: 97° (old record: 92°, 1995) Miramichi, New Brunswick: 99° (old record: 89°, 2016) Quebec city: 92° (old record: 87°, 2016) Meanwhile, a major pattern change is now evolving in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -32.05 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.891. On June 18, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.379 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.441. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4°.

With clear skies, I believe Caribou will surpass its all-time high temperature this afternoon.

Temperatures again rose into the upper 70s across much of the region despite more clouds than yesterday. Meanwhile, record heat occurred in parts of Quebec and Maine. Two records included: Caribou: 95° (old record: 90°, 1949 and 1955) Quebec City: 91° (old record: 90°, 2017) More records could fall across this region tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Middle Atlantic region remains on the cusp of a major transition that will lead to sustained warmer than normal conditions. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, warmer, and a little more humid. Initially, as the warmer pattern develops, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. One or more heatwaves are likely in July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -30.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.314. On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.585. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2°.

CNN reported: Siberia's prolonged period of unusually warm weather is an "alarming sign," according to climate change scientists. Surface temperatures in Siberia were up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average last month, making it the vast Russian region's hottest May since records began in 1979, according to research by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), a program affiliated with the European Commission. Siberia's warmer weather came as the world experienced its hottest May on record, the C3S findings show. According to climate scientist Martin Stendel, the temperature deviation in northwestern Siberia last month would happen only once in 100,000 years if it weren't for climate change. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/europe/siberia-warming-climate-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html

The Middle Atlantic region is now on the cusp of a transition that will likely led to sustained warmer than normal conditions. Tomorrow will see more clouds than today and the humidity will also be higher. Initially, as the warmer pattern develops, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.286. On June 16, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.407. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 70s in much of the area. Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. More clouds are likely Thursday and Friday just ahead of the start of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. Through June 16, just 15.37" rain has fallen in New York City. That is 6.96" below normal. As a result of what could be an emerging drought, there is just a 17% implied probability (1971-2019 base period) that New York City will reach 50.00" or more precipitation this year. The last time New York City had less than 50.00" precipitation was 2017 when 45.04" fell. In addition, there is a growing probability that New York City could receive less than 40.00" precipitation this year. The last time that happened was 2012, when just 38.51" precipitation was recorded. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.407 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.221. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. Late this week or this weekend, a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions will likely begin to evolve. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. The warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.221 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.991. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

The day started with unseasonably cool temperatures. Low temperatures included: Albany: 43° Allentown: 48° Binghamton: 39° (old record: 41°, 1978) Boston: 53° Bridgeport: 52° Islip: 53° New York City: 54° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Poughkeepsie: 43° (tied record set in 1978 and tied in 1979) Scranton: 44° White Plains: 46° (tied record set in 1979) Temperatures will remain below normal through the middle of this week with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning during the closing 10 days of June has continued to increase. Afterward, the warm pattern could lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -8.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.997 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.889. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

With the changes that starting occurring over the Pacific just after the beginning of this month, I don’t think we will escape heat and humidity. Those changes have started a hemispheric pattern change that is evolving. One will probably see a transition toward sustained warmer than normal conditions get underway during the third and fourth weeks this month in this region. Should the emerging drought deepen, there will be the potential for some severe bouts of heat in July and perhaps August.