donsutherland1

As had been the case yesterday, clouds broke for sunshine and temperatures rose into the upper 70s across much of the region. Tomorrow will likely be mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers and cooler as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bertha pass well to the west of the region. Parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Quebec and Ontario saw record heat. In some places, new May records were set. High temperatures included: Burlington: 95° (old record: 91°, 1944 and 2016) ***New May Record*** Caribou: 87° Montreal: 96° (old record: 89°, 1978 and 2016) ***New May Record*** Ottawa: 95° (old record: 93°, 1914) Quebec City: 90° Saranac Lake, NY: 93° (old record: 88°, 1914) Montreal's 96° (35.8°C) temperature was the hottest temperature recorded anywhere in Canada today. Some of those areas could see near record to record warmth again tomorrow. Much cooler air will arrive there for the coming weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through at least the first week in June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was -6.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799. On May 26, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.315 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.276. Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

This afternoon, temperatures again soared well into the 70s under abundant sunshine.

That’s not accurate. Its all-time high is 101 degrees, which was set on June 29, 1933.

Montreal further extended its all-time May record with a 3 pm temperature of 35.5 degrees C (96 degrees F).

Burlington reached 94 degrees at 3 pm. That surpassed the daily record( 91 degrees set in 1944 and tied in 2016) and monthly record (93 degrees set on May 22, 1977 and tied on May 18, 2017).

At 2 pm, the temperature was 35 degrees C (95 degrees F) in Montreal. That surpassed the previous May record of 34.7 degrees C (94 degrees F), which was set on May 26, 2010.

At 1 pm, the temperature was 33.4 degrees C (92 degrees F) in Montreal. That broke the daily record of 31.7 degrees C (89 degrees F), which was set in 1978 and tied in 2016.

Monthly record is 93 (May 22, 1977 and May 17, 2017). Montreal and Quebec City might also make a run at their May records.

Quebec City also had an earlier first 90 degree reading (May 20, 1911).

Yes. For example, Burlington had a high temperature of 90 on May 11, 1911 (NYC was 76). NYC’s first 90 degree temperature occurred on July 2, 1911. On May 23, 1975 Montreal had a high temperature of 90. New York City’s first 90 degree temperature occurred a day later on May 24.

Clouds again gave way to sunshine today. In response, the temperature rose into the upper 70s in New York City and nearby areas. Across Western and Upstate New York, record high temperatures were set. Near record heat also prevailed in parts of Ontario and Quebec. High temperatures included: Buffalo: 92° (old record: 88°, 1944) Burlington: 92°(tied record set in 2010) Caribou: 87° Montreal: 91° Ottawa: 92° Rochester: 91° (old record: 90°, 1944) Syracuse: 93° (old record: 90°, 2010 and 2011) Some of those areas could see record warmth again tomorrow. No excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was -6.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.127. On May 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.599. Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

Under bright afternoon sunshine and a nearly cloudless sky, the temperature soared into the upper 70s this afternoon. Two photos:

Tomorrow will again see clouds yield to sunshine. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. However, no excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was -3.58 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.151. On May 24, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.605 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.645. Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2°.

The temperature rose into the upper 60s this afternoon as sunshine followed a mainly cloudy morning. It is currently horseshoe crab mating season. Below is a photo of a female horseshoe crab with a male attached to her taken at Playland Beach (Rye, NY) late this afternoon.

Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon sending readings well into the 60s. Tomorrow should again feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. However, no excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI has continued to experience an increased tendency for positive values during May. For the May 1-23 period, the SOI was positive on 16 (70%) days. In April, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could continue to cool. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.084. On May 23, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.642 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.237. Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4°.

The temperature rose into the middle 60s this afternoon as the sun returned. At Playland Beach in Rye, access to the Boardwalk and beach were limited to Westchester County residents. Residency was verified at a police checkpoint. Visitors were also required to have masks. One elderly couple with New Hampshire license plates was turned away in front of me. The beach was not very crowded. There was a police officer on the beach to enforce social distancing. Messages about social distancing and the wearing of masks whenever one was less than 6 feet from another person were repeatedly broadcast over a sound system. Approximately one-third of the beach was closed. Three photos:

Today, parts of the region experienced periods of rain, some of which was briefly heavy. Through 9 pm rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.55" Bridgeport: 0.04" Islip: 0.01" New York City: 0.65" Newark: 0.79" Philadelphia: 1.08" Tomorrow and Memorial Day should feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI has continued to experience an increased tendency for positive values during May. For the May 1-23 period, the SOI was positive on 16 (70%) days. In April, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could continue to cool. The SOI was -4.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.027. On May 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.232 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.158. Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

Photo from this morning (Temperature: 64°):

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the 70s across the area. High temperatures included: Brigeport: 75° Islip: 76° New York City: 76° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 71° An area of light rain moved through parts of the New York City region this evening. Tomorrow will feature mainly cloudy skies with periods of rain. Sunday and Memorial Day should feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +5.15 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.457. On May 21, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.157 (RMM). The May 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.202. Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

This evening a light rain arrived, moistening the ground, and leaving a thick smell of humidity hanging in the air.

This morning, temperatures fell to near record lows with a few record lows in the region. Low temperatures included: Allentown: 34° Bridgeport: 41° Islip: 39° (tied record set in 2009) New York City-JFK: 42° (old record: 43°, 2002) New York City-LGA: 48° New York City-NYC: 46° Newark: 47° Poughkeepsie: 36° Westhampton: 32° White Plains: 38° Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The final days of the month could end on a warmer note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +10.97 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.001. On May 20, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.331. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

66 degrees yesterday.

Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -6.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.344. On May 19, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.332 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.695. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. At the same time, the latest EPS weeklies show the potential for a continuation of the cool pattern well into June. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°.

Another May day, another day with cooler than normal readings. That has been the story through much of this month. That will remain the story for the foreseeable future. Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -8.71 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.444. On May 18, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.692 (RMM). The May 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.746. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°.

Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case through at least Friday. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +0.17 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.696. On May 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.743 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.464. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6°.