donsutherland1

Clouds and somewhat cooler than normal conditions prevailed today. Meanwhile, in the Southwest near record and record heat prevailed. High temperatures included: Flagstaff: 79 (old record: 78, 1992); Las Vegas: 99 (tied record set in 2013); Phoenix: 104; and, Tucson: 101. Another storm will impact the region tomorrow and Friday. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.50" rain with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". The highest amounts will likely be north and west of Newark and New York City. In the wake of the system, warmer conditions will return this weekend. However, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the guidance is even colder. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +6.56 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.160. On April 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.912 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.917. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4°. Overall, May will likely be cooler than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England region.

Today saw partly sunny skies and somewhat milder conditions. Temperatures topped out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. However, another storm will impact the region Thursday and Friday. In the wake of the system, warmer conditions will likely return this weekend. However, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the guidance is even colder. The probability of a cooler than normal May has continued to increase in recent days. The cooler scenario is supported by the latest EPS weekly guidance. The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a cooler scenario. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +3.39 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.575. On April 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.915 (RMM). The April 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.941. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4°.

This morning, the temperature fell to 39° at New York City's Central Park. That was only the third time since 2000 that the temperature fell into the 30s on or after April 27. The other times since 2000 were: April 27, 2000: 37° and April 28, 2012: 38°. Across parts of New York State, snow fell overnight into this morning. Snowfall amounts included: Binghamton: 0.9"; Cherry Valley: 14.0"; East Springfield: 6.5"; Jefferson: 8.0"; and, Springfield: 6.0". Tomorrow will likely feature partly sunny skies and somewhat milder conditions. However, clouds will increase later tomorrow as another storm impacts the region late in the week. Temperatures will likely average generally below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through the remainder of the month. Warmer conditions will likely return during the first week of May, but the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The probability of a cooler than normal May has increased since mid-April. The cooler scenario is supported by the latest EPS weekly guidance. The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a cooler scenario. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +0.94 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.283. On April 26, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.942 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.115. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3°.

A stretch with highs near 60 and lows well into the 40s.

At 7 am, the temperature was 39 degrees at New York City. The last time the temperature fell into the 30s this late in the season was April 28, 2012 when the temperature fell to 38 degrees.

Rain will continue overnight into tomorrow morning before yielding to mainly overcast skies. Tuesday could see partly sunny skies. However, another storm will likely impact the region late in the week. Temperatures will likely average generally below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through the remainder of the month. Warmer conditions will likely return during the first week of May, but the milder conditions will likely we short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The probability of a cooler than normal May has increased since mid-April. The cooler scenario is supported by the latest EPS weekly guidance and the CFSv2 has been evolving toward that scenario. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was -7.43 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.113. On April 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.116 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.151. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5°.

That is Manor Park in Larchmont, NY.

Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the springlike 60s across much of the region. However, the dry respite will quickly come to an end. Another storm will bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to much of the region later tomorrow into Monday. Temperatures will likely average generally below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through the remainder of the month. Warmer conditions will likely return during the first week of May. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was -3.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.610. On April 24, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.155 (RMM). The April 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.049. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5°.

Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the middle 60s this afternoon. As a result, people came out to the parks, some wearing masks, others none.

Tomorrow will see abundant sunshine, but the respite from rain will be short-lived. Another storm will bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to much of the region later Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will likely average generally below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +0.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.514. On April 23, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.051 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.790. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

There will be some changes to start May, but they don't appear too big right now.

Yesterday, 5.5" snow fall at Caribou. That exceeded the previous daily record of 4.6", which was set in 1989. Seasonal snowfall has now reached 146.0", which is the 9th highest figure on record. In addition, the total snowfall for the last two seasons (2018-19 through 2019-20) is 311.4", which is the second highest such figure on record. Only 2007-08 through 2008-09 with 313.5" had more. A storm coming out of the Ohio Valley will bring showers and periods of rain tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will likely stay well below normal through tomorrow. Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +1.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.217. On April 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.793 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.796. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

Some sleet pellets are falling in Larchmont, NY.

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, some parts of New York State into northern New England saw some snow. Snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.1”; Binghamton: 0.6”; Buffalo: 0.7” (old record: 0.2”, 1986); and, Caribou: 5.5” (old record: 4.6”, 1989). This morning, temperatures fell to unseasonably to unseasonably low levels across the area and the Northeast. Low temperatures included: Albany: 28; Bridgeport: 32; Caribou: 21 (tied record set in 1994); Islip: 33; Poughkeepsie: 27; Westhampton: 20 (old record: 25, 2018); and, White Plains: 34. At 8:15 am EDT, a system coming eastward was bringing rain to parts of Illinois, Indiana and along its warm front heavy rain and thunderstorms were poised to move into the Atlanta area, which has already received 30.32” precipitation this year, which is 14.18” above normal. Showers and periods of rain associated with that system will move into the New York Metro Area and suburbs later today or this evening.

Overnight, readings could approach or even break some daily record low temperatures in parts of the region. The forecast lows for April 23 for select locations on the 12z MOS were as follows: Albany: 22 (record: 26, 1975); Bridgeport: 32 (record: 30, 1982); Islip: 32 (record: 31, 1982 and 1989); Newark: 33 (record: 32, 1933); Westhampton: 21 (record: 25, 2018); and, White Plains: 29 (record: 26, 1982). A storm coming out of the Ohio Valley tomorrow will lead to increasing clouds during the daytime. Showers and periods of rain could move into the area during the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will likely stay well below normal through Friday. Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was -2.67 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.660. On April 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.800 (RMM). The April 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.719. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

This afternoon, a squall line with strong to severe thunderstorms blasted through the region. By evening, the clouds broke in parts of the region allowing for a return of bright sunshine. Nevertheless, some showers still moved across the region during the evening. In the wake of the cold front, much colder air began pushing into the region. Tomorrow through Friday will likely see temperatures stay well below normal. Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +0.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.021. The last time the AO was at least as low was December 27, 2019 when the AO was -2.070. On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.728 (RMM). The April 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.678. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

On account of a storm's passing south of the region, most of the area saw considerable clouds into the afternoon today. Temperatures continued to run somewhat below normal. Tomorrow will be somewhat milder in advance of a cold front as a strong storm moves eastward from Ontario across Quebec. The storm's associated cold front will likely cross the region during the late morning or early afternoon with a round of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Strong winds are likely during the day. Noticeably cooler air will likely follow. Readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +8.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.181. On April 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.678 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.451. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.0°.

Verification: The April 1-17 mean temperature in New York City was 51.2. That was 0.5 degrees above normal. The model blend was 1.0 degrees too warm; the GFS was 2.5 degrees too cold.

Yesterday's storm was likely the last glancing blow of the feeble winter of 2019-2020. Snowfall totals across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions were far below normal. Near final seasonal snowfall totals include: Albany: 49.6" 10.2" below normal Baltimore: 1.8" 18.3" below normal (lowest since 2011-12: 1.8") Boston: 15.8" 27.8" below normal (lowest since 2011-12: 9.3") Harrisburg: 5.1" 25.4" below normal (***lowest on record***) New York City: 4.8" 20.9" below normal (lowest since 2001-02: 3.5") Newark: 6.9" 21.5" below normal (lowest since 2001-02: 3.6") Philadelphia: 0.3" 22.0" below normal (lowest since 1972-73: Trace) Washington, DC: 0.6" 14.8" below normal (lowest since 1997-97: 0.1") In contrast, Caribou has received 137.9" snow, which is 31.3" above normal. Winter 2019-20 was the 3rd consecutive winter during which 130" or more snow fell at Caribou. That last time that happened was winters 1970-71 through 1972-73. After a cold start, temperatures moderated this afternoon. Readings topped out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. High temperatures included: Allentown: 64 Atlantic City: 61 Bridgeport: 59 Harrisburg: 60 (daily low: 29 tied the daily record set in 1904) Islip: 57 New York City: 63 Newark: 63 (daily low: 33 tied the daily record set in 2001) Philadelphia: 64 Overnight through tomorrow a storm will pass to the south spreading clouds across the region. A frontal passage could bring some rain or showers on Tuesday. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Warmer than normal conditions could return during the closing days of April. However, uncertainty has increased, as some of the more recent guidance delays the return of the warmth. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +15.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.181. On April 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.453 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.391. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.0°.

It was. Overall, it wasn’t a good winter for Albany. Of course, it was much worse farther south.

Earlier today, a cold rain fell across the New York Metro Area. Toward the end of the day, some areas in the nearby suburbs saw a little sleet. Across central New York State and southern and central New England, snow fell. Daily snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.5"; Binghamton: 0.3" (storm total: 5.7"); Boston: 0.7"; Burrillville, RI: 5.8"; Hartford: 2.4" (old record: 1.7", 1965); Providence: 1.2" (old record: Trace, 1967, 2001, 2018); Tolland, CT: 5.5"; and, Worcester: 4.7". The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Warmer than normal conditions could return during the closing days of April. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -5.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.717. On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.390 (RMM). The April 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.301. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

I wish there were positive news. This was a horrible winter beyond description.

Earlier today, a storm brought 3.0" snow to Chicago. That smashed the daily record of 0.5", which fell in 1949. The only higher amount recorded after April 15 was 3.1", which fell on April 23, 1967. Last year, Chicago picked up 2.5" snow on April 27. Detroit had received 2.9" snow as of 5 pm. Tonight into the tomorrow, that storm will bring a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at accumulating snow. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1"-3" Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. That last time Boston received 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell. No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -18.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.531. On April 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.300 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.192. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Morning thoughts... 1. Unseasonably cool temperatures prevailed this morning. A few locations saw temperatures approach or reach or exceed the daily record low temperature. Low temperatures included: Albany: 27; Allentown: 30; Bridgeport: 34; Harrisburg: 29 (tied record set in 1904 and tied in 1980); Islip: 30 (tied record set in 1971 and tied in 2005); New York City: 36; Newark: 32 (near the record of 30 set in 1980); Philadelphia: 34; Poughkeepsie: 25; White Plains: 31 (near the record of 30 set in 1980); and, Westhampton: 20 (old record: 21, 2005). 2. Even colder temperatures prevailed in parts of Wyoming. Such temperatures included: Casper: 16 (near the record of 15 set in 1945); Cheyenne: 5 (old record: 8, 1901); and, Laramie: -11 (old record 0, 1999). The -11 temperature was only the second case where Laramie had a temperature of -10 or below in April. The only other such case occurred on April 2, 1975 when the temperature reached -14. Records go back to 1948. 3. A storm was continuing to track eastward. Snow was falling in parts of northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Snow was approaching the greater Detroit area. Rain was falling south of there. This system will bring snow from an area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and then eastward into central and southern New England. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1" or 3" Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. The last time Boston saw 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell.

Perhaps the last snow threat of the 2019-2020 season now looms for parts of the Great Lakes region eastward into southern and central New England. Late tomorrow into the coming weekend, a storm will come out of the Plains States bringing a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at least some snow. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 2" or less Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -16.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.082. On April 15, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The April 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.411. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.