donsutherland1

Sunshine gradually yielded to clouds. Light rain arrived during the late afternoon. Ahead of the arrival of the light rain, deer basked in open.

The low there was 37.

Martha’s Vineyard: 46 Monticello: 35 Mount Pocono: 32 Westhampton: 31

One year anniversary:

Danbury and Poughkeepsie reached 36 degrees. White Plains reached 39 degrees this morning.

Morning thoughts... Sunshine will give way to clouds. Showers and a period of rain will arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 61° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit milder. After midweek, a warming trend will commence.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1391224699682762752?s=20

The live app tracking it is probably off. I saw the breaking news moments ago.

The velocity of an asteroid or comet would be greater and that might allow for better predictions. The predictions of the rocket haven’t been great in terms of re-entry and impact. P.S. Multiple news sources are now saying it crashed.

The rocket can be tracked here: https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

It’s now pegged to the new normals. I still suspect that it will turn much warmer in late May. That’s not yet on the guidance.

Any early sunshine will yield to increasing clouds tomorrow. It will be somewhat milder than today. Showers and rain could arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +10.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.211 today. On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.740 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.740 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

Today was cloudy and cool. Temperatures remained in the lower and middle 50s. Occasional light rain and drizzle occurred from time to time. Some photos from the still evolving spring landscape at the New York Botanical Garden:

The sun is currently out in southern Westchester County.

Morning thoughts... At 8:15 a few showers were moving through parts of the region. In the Cartland area, some snow was reported. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers. It will be unseasonably cool. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and a period of rain are likely especially late in the day.

The weekend will start off variably cloudy and unseasonably cool. Showers and even a thundershower are possible. However, the afternoon could be fairly dry. Temperatures will likely remain in the 50s in New York City and Newark. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +22.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.013 today. On May 5 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.740 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.987 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and pleasant today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° It will be mainly cloudy and unseasonably cool tomorrow. Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible.

Yes, that plays a role. I believe there was a paper published last year that took that factor into consideration and still found a correlation with climate change.

Tomorrow will be another partly sunny, but somewhat cooler day. The weekend will start off variably cloudy and unseasonably cool. Showers and even a thundershower are possible. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +32.04 today. That was the highest figure since December 31, 2020 when the SOI was +32.12. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.544 today. On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.987 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.395 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and pleasant today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° A sustained period of below normal to near normal temperatures is imminent. Tomorrow will be partly sunny but cool.

It’s possible. Once the pattern changes, it can become very warm in a hurry.

FYI, NOAA has a page devoted to billion dollar weather/climate disasters. The damages are adjusted for inflation. The 1981-2010 average was 5.0 per year. The 1991-2020 average is 8.6 per year. The 15-year average (2006-2020) is 11.8 per year. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats/US/1981-2010

After a mainly cloudy and sometimes rainy day, the sun will return tomorrow. Tomorrow into the middle of next week will likely feature somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. Out West, Phoenix recorded its first 100° day of the year today. Last year saw Phoenix register a record 145 days on which the temperature rose to 100° or above. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +25.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.227 today. On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.989 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.394 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

The combination of the prevailing pattern in the means and Central Park’s vegetation likely contributed to this recent outcome.

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and cooler than yesterday. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur across upstate New York and northern New England.. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see the temperature rise into the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 72° A sustained period of below normal to near normal temperatures will arrive tomorrow. In terms of the 1991-2020 normal temperatures, December saw the biggest increase in monthly temperature in both New York City and Philadelphia relative to the previous 1981-2010 baseline. In New York City, the normal monthly temperature rose by 1.6°. In Philadelphia, it rose by 1.3°. No months were cooler in New York City (smallest change: +0.3° in March and November). November was 0.2° cooler in Philadelphia. In New York City, January, July, September, October, and December saw increases of 1.0° or above. Only December met that criteria in Philadelphia. The greatest warming over two months occurred during the December-January period in New York City and Philadelphia. The September-October period saw the second greatest warming for a two-month period.