donsutherland1

Tonight will be unseasonably cool. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will range from the lower and middle 50s in New York City and Newark and the 40s in some of their suburbs. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern could lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +8.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.393. On June 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.888 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.126. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Another unseasonably cool air mass will move into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 40s in some of the suburbs. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +12.72 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.417. On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.221. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than today. Another unseasonably cool air mass will move into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 40s in some of the suburbs. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +0.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.495. On June 10, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.222 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.510. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

I agree with respect to something like but perhaps warmer than 1995. If the 11year solar cycle would suggest a very warm summer next year.

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s across the region. Somewhat cooler conditions with some showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the probability of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -3.45 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.349. On June 9, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.515 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.614. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

Temperatures will returned to the 80s across much of the region today with a few 90° temperatures. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 85°; Islip: 83°; New York City: 87°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 88°. Tomorrow will be another warm day with temperatures rising into at least the lower and middle 80s. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +7.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 8, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.633 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.685. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.5°.

Temperatures will return to the 80s across much of the region tomorrow. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +12.37 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 7, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.696 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.5°.

Under bright sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and fair weather cumulus clouds, the temperature rose into the 70s today. Tomorrow will again see temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -13.71 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.772 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.982. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Today was the hottest day so far in parts of the region. High temperatures: Allentown: 88° Baltimore: 91° Boston: 89° Bridgeport: 83° Islip: 82° New York City: 86° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 90° Poughkeepsie: 89° Washington, DC: 91° Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. Tomorrow and Monday will see temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -38.45 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.466. On June 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.984 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.826. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Sunshine will return tomorrow and readings will likely rise well into the 80s. Somewhat cooler air should follow for Sunday and Monday. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -46.68 today. That was the lowest SOI figure since February 17, 2017 when the SOI was -51.97. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.662. On June 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.842 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Temperatures soared into the middle and even upper 80s across the region today. Overnight and tomorrow, it will be mainly cloudy and warm with periodic showers and thundershowers. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -33.39 today. That was the lowest figure since November 5, 2019 when the SOI was -34.49. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.855. On June 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.778 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.841. The MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. With the SOI plunging below -30.00, that could be a catalyst that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period late this month. A similar development occurred last June, as well. Afterward, July and August featured warm anomalies in the East.

Earlier today, a line of powerful thunderstorms tore through the Philadelphia area with wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. A much more tranquil night is in store. In the wake of the storms, several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -16.59 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.900. On June 2, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.843 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.872. The MJO has now in in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. In short, this could be an early indication that a summer that will start near normal (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Warmer weather will likely tomorrow. Some showers and thundershowers are likely later tomorrow. At least several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was -2.04 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.927. On June 1, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.869 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.851.

June began on an unseasonably cool note. Low temperatures included: Allentown: 44° Bridgeport: 46° Islip: 44° New York City: 51° Newark: 51° Philadelphia: 51° Poughkeepsie: 39° White Plains: 42° Warmer weather will likely return by the middle of this week. At least several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase. The SOI was +9.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.010. On May 31, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.849 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.784. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

May 2020 concluded with an estimated mean temperature of 60.3° in New York City. That made this May the coldest May since 2008 when the average temperature was 60.1°. June will start unseasonably cool with a morning temperature in the lower to middle 50s in New York City and 40s in some of the suburbs. Warmer weather should follow this latest cool shot. Late in the first week of June into the start of the second week of June, readings could be in the 80s in at least parts of the region. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was +20.01 today. This is the first time the SOI has reached or exceeded +20.00 since August 10, 2019 when the SOI wsa +20.15. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.165. On May 30, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.555 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.311. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.3 1.5 1.2 -0.5 101 98 98 96 99 104 97 118 94

Following today's warmth, cooler air will move into the region for a few days. Warmer weather should follow the cool shot. Late in the first week of June into the start of the second week of June, readings could be in the 80s in at least parts of the region. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was +17.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.352. On May 29, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.310 (RMM). The May 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.367. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s in many parts of the region. On a separate note, the goslings have arrived.

The afternoon turned out mostly sunny,windy and warm across the region. Highs generally reached the upper 70s to the middle 80s. A few areas in Quebec continued to experience record warmth. Records included: Gaspé: 89° (old record: 86°, 1968) Îles de la Madeleine: 72° (old record: 71°, 1992) Rivière-du-Loup: 85° (old record: 80°, 1972) Yesterday's final data revealed that Îles de la Madeleine set a new May record high temperature of 78°(25.4°C). For the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first week in June. A fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences. Warmer weather should follow the cool shot. Late in the first week of June into the start of the second week of June, readings could be in the 80s in at least parts of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was +8.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.320. On May 28, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.366 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.485. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

The afternoon turned out mainly sunny, breezy and warm:

Tomorrow will be another mostly cloudy day. Some sunshine could break through. In addition, some showers and perhaps thundershowers are also possible. Readings could rise well into the 70s. Parts of Quebec continued to experience unseasonable heat. Based on preliminary data, Îles de la Madeleine set a new May record high temperature of 77°(old record: 73°, 2001). The final data from yesterday for Montreal and Quebec City revealed that both cities set May records and Montreal had its second highest temperature on record. Montreal: 36.6°C/98°F ***New May Record*** Quebec City: 33.1°C/92°F *** New May Record*** For the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first week in June. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was +1.55 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.581. On May 27, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.316. June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

Early this evening, the temperature was near 70° and a gusty southerly wind blew in from over the Long Island Sound. There was even some light drizzle.

I missed the 37.6C reading. Yesterday’s high was 36.6C not 35.8C. That was the second highest figure on record.

Throughout much of this month, the GFS has often shown the development of heat in the extended range only to see the heat not materialize. It's unclear, but possible, that the partial fix for the wintertime cold bias/snowfall bias in the FV3 core might be responsible.

Montreal's 98 degree high yesterday set a new all-time record . The old record was 97 degrees from August 8, 2001.