donsutherland1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 -0.3 0.7 -0.2

Yesterday's 79° minimum temperature at Wilmington, NC set a daily and monthly record high minimum temperature. The previous daily record for May 30 was 75°, which was set in 2018. The previous monthly record was 77°, which was set on May 26 this year. Prior to then, the old monthly record was 76°, which occurred on multiple occasions.

Today's record high temperatures included: Asheville: 91° (tied record set in 1969) Augusta: 99° (tied record set in 1898 and tied in 1941) Charleston, SC: 99° (old record: 95°, 1974, 1995, and 2004) Elizabeth City: 96° (tied record set in 2011) Fayetteville: 102° (old record: 97°, 1941) ***Tied May Record*** Florence: 100° (old record: 96°, 1953) Jacksonville: 98° (old record: 97°, 1898 and 1945) Macon: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898) Raleigh: 96° (old record: 95°, 1895) Wilmington, NC: 96° (tied record set in 1898)

Heavy thunderstorms again soaked parts of the region this evening. Rainfall totals through 8 pm included: Bridgeport: 0.43"; Islip: 0.36"; New York City: 0.74"; Newark: 0.34"; and, White Plains: 1.20". The Southeast experienced another day of searing May heat. Daily records were tied or broken. When May concludes tomorrow, numerous cities will have experienced their warmest May on record. Record high temperatures included: Asheville: 91° (tied record set in 1969) Augusta: 99° (tied record set in 1898 and tied in 1941) Charleston, SC: 99° (old record: 95°, 1974, 1995, and 2004) Elizabeth City: 96° (tied record set in 2011) Fayetteville: 102° (old record: 97°, 1941) ***Tied May Record*** Florence: 100° (old record: 96°, 1953) Jacksonville: 98° (old record: 97°, 1898 and 1945) Macon: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898) Raleigh: 96° (old record: 95°, 1895) Wilmington, NC: 96° (tied record set in 1898) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. The SOI was -9.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.284. On May 29, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.545 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 28-adjusted figure of 2.368. Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 91°. Atlanta is now all but assured of having its warmest May on record. Records go back to 1879. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-30): 76.2° (warmest first 30 days of May; old record: 75.1°, 1996)Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.3° (likely range: 76.2°-76.4°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 92%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, with the cool weather during the past two days, it is now extremely likely that New York City will have a below normal May mean temperature. Looking ahead, June will likely see temperatures within a degree of normal across the northern Middle Atlantic region. Farther south, readings could be somewhat above normal. At least in and around New York City and southward, June will likely be wetter than normal. Farther north, drier conditions appear possible. 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　

As of 2 pm, the following locations have set or tied daily record high temperatures: Asheville: 91° (tied record set in 1969) Charleston, SC: 96° (old record: 95°, 1974, 1995, and 2004) Elizabeth City: 96° (tied record set in 2011) Fayetteville: 100° (old record: 97°, 1941) Florence: 98° (old record: 96°, 1953) Augusta (98°) was within a degree of its daily record high temperature.

Today's record temperatures included: Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record*** Charleston, SC: 101° (old record: 95°, 1945) ***Tied May Record*** Columbia, SC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1941) Elizabeth City: 100° (old record: 99°, 1941) Florence: 101° (old record: 95°, 1991) Jacksonville: 99° (old record: 97°, 1967) Macon: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 1911) Myrtle Beach: 99° (old record: 89°, 1945 and 1965) ***Tied May Record*** Savannah: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1945) Wilmington, NC: 101° (old record: 96°, 1967) ***New May Record***

The historic May heat continued in the Southeast even as parts of the Middle Atlantic region were again hit by strong to severe thunderstorms. Record temperatures included: Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record*** Charleston, SC: 101° (old record: 95°, 1945) ***Tied May Record*** Columbia, SC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1941) Elizabeth City: 100° (old record: 99°, 1941) Florence: 101° (old record: 95°, 1991) Jacksonville: 99° (old record: 97°, 1967) Macon: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 1911) Myrtle Beach: 99° (old record: 89°, 1945 and 1965) ***Tied May Record*** Savannah: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1945) Wilmington, NC: 101° (old record: 96°, 1967) ***New May Record*** The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. The SOI was -6.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.383. On May 28, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.368 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 27-adjusted figure of 2.355. Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°. Atlanta is now all but assured of having its warmest May on record. Records go back to 1879. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-29): 76.0° (warmest first 29 days of May; old record: 75.2°, 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.3° (likely range: 76.1°-76.5°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 72%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently just above 50%.

As of 3 pm, the following locations have set or tied daily record high temperatures: Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record*** Charleston, SC: 99° (tied record set in 1945) Elizabeth City: 99° (tied record set in 1941) Florence: 100° (old record: 95°, 1991) Jacksonville: 97° (tied record set in 1967) Myrtle Beach: 98° (old record: 89°, 1945 and 1965) Savannah: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1945 Wilmington, NC: 100° (old record: 96°, 1967) ***Tied May Record*** The following locations was within 2° of their daily record high temperature: Macon (97°).

Much of the Southeast continues to experience excessive early-season heat. As of Noon, the following locations have set or tied daily record high temperatures: Charleston, SC: 95° (tied record set in 1945) Myrtle Beach: 95° (old record: 89°, 1945 and 1965) Wilmington, NC: 97° (old record: 96°, 1967) The following locations were within 2° of their daily record high temperature: Augusta (97°) and Florence (93°).

The historic May heat wave in the Southeast produced more record temperatures today. Select records included: Asheville: 91° (tied daily record set in 1914 and tied in 1941) Athens: 97° (tied daily record set in 1914) Atlanta: 94° (tied daily record set in 1941) Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1964) ***Tied May Record*** Charleston, SC: 101° (old record: 97°, 1964 and 1967) ***New May Record*** Columbia: 101° (old record 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record*** Florence: 102° (old record: 100°, 1964) ***Tied May Record*** Macon: 100° (old record: 99°, 1967) ***Tied May Record*** Myrtle Beach: 99° (old record: 95°, 1989) ***New May Record*** Savannah: 101° (old record: 96°, 1898 and 1964) Tallahassee: 100° (Tied daily record set in 2000) Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-28): 75.7° (warmest first 28 days of May; old record: 75.1°, 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.1° (likely range: 75.9°-76.4°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 98%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 97%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 59%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Thunderstorms were moving across the region this evening. Farther south, the historic May heat wave in the Southeast produced more record temperatures. Select records included: Asheville: 91° (tied daily record set in 1914 and tied in 1941) Athens: 97° (tied daily record set in 1914) Atlanta: 94° (tied daily record set in 1941) Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1964) ***Tied May Record*** Charleston, SC: 101° (old record: 97°, 1964 and 1967) ***New May Record*** Columbia: 101° (old record 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record*** Florence: 102° (old record: 100°, 1964) ***Tied May Record*** Macon: 100° (old record: 99°, 1967) ***Tied May Record*** Myrtle Beach: 99° (old record: 95°, 1989) ***New May Record*** Savannah: 101° (old record: 96°, 1898 and 1964) Tallahassee: 100° (Tied daily record set in 2000) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. The SOI was -14.38 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.837. On May 27, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.354 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 26-adjusted figure of 2.292. Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1941. Atlanta is now all but assured of having its warmest May on record. Records go back to 1879. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-28): 75.7° (warmest first 28 days of May; old record: 75.1°, 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.1° (likely range: 75.9°-76.4°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 98%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 97%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 59%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently 59%.

Through 2 pm, record temperatures included: Augusta: 100° (old record: 99°, 1964) Charleston, SC: 99° (old record: 97°, 1964 and 1967) Columbia, SC: 100° (old record: 99°, 1914) Myrtle Beach, SC: 97° (old record: 95°, 1989) Savannah: 99° (old record: 96°, 1898 and 1964) Cities within 2° of their daily record included: Atlanta: (92°), Macon (97°), Tallahassee: (98°), and Wilmington, NC (96°)

As of 1 pm, daily record high temperatures were being challenged and broken in parts of the Southeast. Records included: Myrtle Beach: 96° (old record: 95°, 1989) Savannah: 98° (old record: 96°, 1898 and 1964) The following cities were within 2° of their daily record high temperatures: Augusta (97°); Charleston, SC (96°); and Columbia, SC (98°).

Under bright sunshine, New York City had a high temperature of 80° and Newark reached 82°. The Southeast continued to broil, with Wilmington, NC reaching 98°. That broke the daily record of 96°, which was set in 1989. During May 1-27, Wilmington has a mean temperature of 75.2°. That ranks second behind the 76.2° average, which was recorded during the same timeframe in 1953. However, there is an implied probability of 78% that Wilmington will record its warmest May on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. The SOI was -18.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.205. On May 26, the MJO moved into Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.298 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 25-adjusted figure of 2.132. Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1911 and then tied in 1916 and 1936. Atlanta is well on its way toward experiencing the warmest May on record for that city. Records go back to 1879. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-27): 75.4° (warmest first 27 days of May; old record: 75.2°, 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.0° (likely range: 75.6°-76.4°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 92%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 89%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 52%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently 63%.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose to 80° in New York City. The New York Botanical Garden roses are now in bloom. A wide variety of birds can be seen throughout the Garden. Six photos from today:

That's very impressive. The 101° at Savannah tied the May record (May 30, 1898 and May 31, 1945). It was also the hottest there this early in the season. The 100° at Wilmington was also that city's hottest May temperature on record.

It should be noted that NYC is running about 1" below EWR at this point in time.

With today's thundershowers, New York City picked up 0.20" rain. That brought total precipitation for 2019 past 20.00" to 20.04". That is 0.99" above normal. At Newark, the temperature hit 90°. Cooler weather lies ahead, especially for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Meanwhile, scorching heat roasted the Southeast. At Wilmington, NC, the temperature reached 100°. That was Wilmington's hottest temperature since June 16, 2015 when the mercury also reached 100°. This reading was also Wilmington's hottest reading on record for May. Wilmington is poised to record its warmest May on record (implied probability: 68%). Select records included: Atlanta: 94° (tied record set in 1911 and tied in 1916 and 1936) Charleston, SC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953) **Hottest since July 13, 2016 when the temperature also hit 100°** Columbia, SC: 100° (tied record set in 1953) Raleigh: 94° (tied record set in 1953) Savannah: 101° (old record: 100°, 1953) ** Hottest since June 20, 2011 when the temperature also hit 101°** Wilmington, NC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953) **Hottest since June 16, 2015 when the temperature also hit 100°** The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -19.28 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.205. On May 26, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.131 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 25-adjusted figure of 2.165. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 13 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since June 11-23, 2009 when the MJO was also in Phase 8 for 13 consecutive days. The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth next week (around May 30). Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1911 and then tied in 1916 and 1936. Atlanta is well on its way toward experiencing the warmest May on record for that city. Records go back to 1879. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-26): 75.1° (warmest first 26 days of May; old record: 75.0°, 1902 and 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.1° (likely range: 75.6°-76.6°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 88%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 85%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 54%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City has fallen sharply to just over 50% with the sharp 1-2 day cool shot that is possible for Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. 　

Select records for today included: Atlanta: 94° (tied record set in 1911 and tied in 1916 and 1936) Charleston, SC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953) **Hottest since July 13, 2016 when the temperature also hit 100°** Columbia, SC: 100° (tied record set in 1953) Raleigh: 94° (tied record set in 1953) Savannah: 101° (old record: 100°, 1953) ** Hottest since June 20, 2011 when the temperature also hit 101°** Wilmington, NC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953) **Hottest since June 16, 2015 when the temperature also hit 100°**

Yesterday, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°. That set a new daily record high figure. The old record was 93°, which was set in 1953 and tied in 1960. Atlanta remains solidly on track for its warmest May on record. Mean Temperature (May 1-25): 74.7° (Tied for 2nd warmest with 1896 and 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.0° (likely range: 75.5°-76.5°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 86%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 83%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 50%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -22.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.857. On May 23, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 22-adjusted figure of 1.819. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 11 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since February 12-22, 2019 when the MJO was also in Phase 8 for 11 consecutive days. The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth (May 26 and also during the May 29-30 timeframe). Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, which just missed the daily record high temperature of 95°, which was set in 1996. That was Atlanta's highest temperature since September 20, 2018 when the temperature also reached 94°. Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-24): 74.3° (5th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.3°-76.6°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 77%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 74%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 48%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is approximately 70%.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -19.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.039. The AO has now been at or below -1.000 or 18 consecutive days. Overall, the AO is likely to be at or below -1.000 for at least half the days during the second half of the month. Such situations have often been followed with readings within 1° of normal during the first 10 days of June. On May 22, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.821 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 21-adjusted figure of 1.757. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 10 consecutive days. The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth (May 29-30 timeframe). Some of the guidance hints at readings approaching the middle 90s as far north as New York City. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 74%. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-23): 74.0° (6th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.2°-76.7°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 74%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 71%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 48%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 70%.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -5.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.878. The AO has now been at or below -1.000 or 17 consecutive days. Overall, the AO is likely to be at or below -1.000 for at least half the days during the second half of the month. Such situations have often been followed with readings within 1° of normal during the first 10 days of June. On May 21, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.766 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 20-adjusted figure of 1.849. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 9 consecutive days. During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. A figure closer to the 2011 average is more likely than something below the overall average. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 70.1° for the May 21-31 timeframe. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England. The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 71%. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-22): 73.7° (6th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.0°-76.8°) Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 72%.

Updated for Atlanta: Through May 21, Atlanta has a mean temperature of 73.3°. May 1-21, 2019 is tied with 2015 for the 12th warmest such period on record. Records go back to 1879. Based on applying sensitivity analysis to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that May 2019 will become the warmest May on record. The record warm average temperature for May is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. May 2019 appears very likely to finish with a mean temperature somewhere from 75.0° to 76.7°.

Today, high temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region included: Allentown: 88°; Atlantic City: 78°; Baltimore: 87°; Harrisburg: 88°; Islip: 73°; New York City: 76°; Newark: 80°; Philadelphia: 85°; and, Washington, DC: 87°. Following some potentially strong thunderstorms, tomorrow could see the mercury approach or reach 90° as far north as Washington, DC. Temperatures in the lower and possibly middle 80s will likely reach New York City and its northern suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -1.05 today. The SOI has become more volatile in recent days. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.110. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. The guidance continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. The possibility of an 80° or above temperature in the northern Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England during the latter part of this period has continued to increase on the guidance. On May 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.748 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 17-adjusted figure of 1.696. During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 67.9° for the May 21-31 timeframe. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England. The core of the warm anomalies during the May 21-31 period could be focused over the Southeast. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta could approach or exceed the all-time monthly record high mean temperature of 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 58%. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-19): 72.7° (11th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.5° Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 54%.