donsutherland1

It is. This year’s record low ice in the central Arctic region, as part of a long-term trend of declining ice, is an example.

This is another significant paper. It confirms exactly what one would expect from the prior research showing a slowing and more wavy jet stream. It provides a unifying explanation for such events as last summer’s historic heat in Europe and Alaska, this year’s heat in Siberia, the record summer in parts of the Southwest, not to mention slowing forward motion of some recent hurricanes.

Temperatures rose into the lower and middle 70s today. Tomorrow will likely be several degrees warmer. Parts of the Southwest experienced record-tying and record-breaking heat. High temperatures included: Needles, CA: 112° (old record: 111°, 1924 and 2000) Phoenix: 109° (tied record set in 1928) Yuma, AZ: 111° (tied record set in 1922 and 2013) More record heat covered parts of Europe today. High temperatures in France included: Belin Beliet: 93° Chateauvillain: 98° Chablis: 94° Cogolin: 93° Durban-Corbières: 95° Montignac: 93° An even cooler air mass than the most recent one could arrive late in the week. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +14.09. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.096. On September 15, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.428 (RMM). The September 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.033. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3°. Finally,on September 15, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.606 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record. In contrast, according to NSIDC historical data, the 1920 minimum extent was approximately 8.826 million square kilometers and the 1970 minimum extent was 8.757 million square kilometers.

My allergies flared up, too. I suspect it's the ragweed more than anything else.

The last time the temperature fell into the 40s this early in the season at BOS was September 15, 2014 when the temperature fell to 48°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s even earlier was September 10, 2003 when the temperature dropped to 49°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be sunny and somewhat milder. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 73° Tomorrow will be milder, but an even colder air mass than the most recent cold shot could arrive late in the week. Hurricane Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, AL with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. So far, Sally has brought 24.80" rain to Escambia, FL and 24.81" to Pensacola Naval Air Station. The ASOS at Pensacola Region Airport was knocked out yesterday evening. A storm report stated, "Landscape and architectural debris found lining the streets of downtown Mobile, AL."

Thanks for sharing this powerful quote. Once the smoke has passed, we’ll see more typical sunsets. The kind of sunset we witnessed today is commonplace in countries such as Indonesia and China. There’s just an incredible amount of pollution that produces such sunsets. At least that was the case when I was in both countries.

Today was the coolest day so far this month. After another cool start, tomorrow will be somewhat milder. Across the Atlantic Ocean, more monthly record high temperatures tumble in parts of Europe, including Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. Météo-France described the record-breaking September heat that occurred north of the Seine River as follows, "Monthly records have been beaten, even pulverized." Monthly record high temperatures included: Antwerp, Belgium: 94° Beauvechain, Belgium: 94° Brussels: 94° Charleroi, Belgium: 96° (national September record) Florennes, Belgium: 91° Geilenkirchen, Germany: 95° Gilze-Rijen, Netherlands: 95° (national September record) Kleine Brugel, Belgium: 94° Lille, France: 95° Luxembourg: 93° Maastricht, Netherlands: 94° Melun, France: 94° Paris-Le Bourget: 95° Pontoise, France: 95° St. Quentin, France: 94° An even cooler air mass could arrive late in the week. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters. The most recent subseasonal guidance is in strong consensus that a generally cool regime could last through the first week of October. The latest EPS weeklies forecast an end to the cool anomalies near the end of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +7.67. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.576. On September 14, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.030 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.743. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5°. Finally,on September 14, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.582 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record.

Smoky sun this evening.

Thanks. It is a most unusual time.

No. The record is 41, which was set way back in 1913. Ironically, Mobile, AL received its record rainfall for September 15th in 1913 and that record could fall today on account of Sally.

Boston got down to 49 degrees this morning. The last time it was that chilly was June 2 when the temperature also fell to 49.

Morning thoughts... This morning saw some of the coolest readings so far this season. Low temperatures included: Allentown: 44° Boston: 49° Bridgeport: 50° Islip: 53° New York City: 54° Newark: 51° Philadelphia: 52° Poughkeepsie: 43° White Plains: 45° Today will be sunny but brisk. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in much of the region to perhaps lower 70s in a few areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Much of the week will feel like early autumn. An even colder air mass could arrive late in the week.

Two photos of this morning’s smoky sunrise.

On September 14, Arctic sea ice extent increased to 3.582 million square kilometers on JAXA.

Today featured partly to mostly sunny weather. Temperatures were still mild, with most areas topping out in the middle 70s. In Europe, France experienced record September heat. Monthly record temperatures included: Angers Beaucouze: 96° Bourges: 96° Nevers: 96° Orthez: 100° Sabres: 99° St. Dizier: 95° Tours: 95° The coldest air so far this season is now overspreading the region. Tonight, the temperature will fall into the 50s in New York City's Central Park for the first time since June 15. Tomorrow, temperatures could remain in the 60s in much of the region. Hurricane Sally will likely make landfall near the Mississippi-Alabama border tomorrow or tomorrow night. Its passage will be fairly slow, which could result in parts of the Gulf Region picking up 15" or more rain. An even cooler air mass could arrive late in the week. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters. The most recent subseasonal guidance is in strong consensus that a generally cool regime could last through the first week of October. The latest EPS weeklies forecast an end to the cool anomalies near the end of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +2.14. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.128. On September 13, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.816. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5°. Finally,on September 13, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record.

Abstract: Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/08/1912890117

Here's a link to the paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4

1010 WINS Radio reported: An enormous chunk of Greenland’s ice cap has broken off in the far northeastern Arctic, a development that scientists say is evidence of rapid climate change. The glacier section that broke off is 110 square kilometers (42.3 square miles). It came off of the fjord called Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, which is roughly 80 kilometers (50 miles) long and 20 kilometers (12 miles) wide, the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland said Monday. The glacier is at the end of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, where it flows off the land and into the ocean. The BBC has an article on this development. That article can be found at: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54127279

Unfortunately, aside from literature concerning short-term impacts, I'm not aware of any literature concerning longer-term impacts. There is some literature that fires burning through the peat in the Arctic release a lot of greenhouse gases.

It's too soon to tell.

I did read the replies. It's a disconcerting situation. Facebook, in its present state, undermines societal information literacy. It helps deprive the public of useful and important information. That's deeply unfortunate given its large membership.

That's a great analogy. Today, the scientific evidence is clear , overwhelming and unequivocal. Yet, if one peruses Social Media and political rhetoric, beliefs that run counter to the evidence persist. Those beliefs, even as they are sometimes cloaked in terms of uncertainty, are non-scientific. The uncertainty is exaggerated beyond what actually exists. Peer-reviewed data and empirical evidence are dismissed outright to preserve those beliefs. None of those beliefs have anything to do with science or the scientific process. Those beliefs are articles of faith, alone. That faith is incompatible with science and the scientific evidence. It is also a substantial barrier to the kind of reforms needed for society to begin to tackle the reality of climate change and its increasingly adverse consequences (severe heat, extreme wildfires, etc.). Those affected by the growing consequences of climate change have only tears. The status quo and its prophets bear some degree of responsibility for thwarting reforms that could begin to mitigate the risks that confront them.

The observations match what has been documented in the literature. There is also a fairly large body of peer-reviewed literature on the impact of climate change on wildfires. Climate change, not failures to "rake," forest management practices, etc., is the principal reason for the increase in severe wildfire seasons, not just in the U.S. but also parts of Europe, Asia, and Australia.

Morning thoughts... Ahead of the arrival of much cooler air, today will be mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 79° Much of the week will feel like early autumn. An even colder air mass could arrive late in the week.