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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    A somewhat cooler than normal August is concluding. New York City had a mean temperature of 75.0°, which was 0.9° below normal. After an unseasonably chilly night, tomorrow will be fair and cool. The Labor Day weekend will start cool but turn noticeably warmer. The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. Parts of the region could see high temperatures peak at or above 90° on one or more days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -9.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.007 today. On August 29 the MJO was unavailable. The August 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.986(RMM).
  2. donsutherland1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 2.1 1.8 3.5 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.6
  3. donsutherland1
    Sustained unseasonable warmth could develop starting late in the first week of September or just afterward. The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -24.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.278 today. On August 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.986 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.100 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).
  4. donsutherland1
    Showers and a period of rain are likely tonight into tomorrow. The Thursday and Friday should be cool for the season. Sustained unseasonable warmth could develop starting late in the first week of September or just afterward. Florida's "Big Bend" region will experience a devastating major hurricane landfall. A towering storm 10-foot or greater storm surge will swamp much of Cedar Key and low-lying coastal areas. Winds will likely be Category 3 strength and some possibility still exists for Category 4 winds. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -24.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.402 today. On August 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.107 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.142 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).
  5. donsutherland1
    2019 was NYC's last cooler than normal August. August 2023 will be the coolest August since August 2017. Both August 2017 and August 2019 were followed by a warmer than normal September.
  6. donsutherland1
    It's longest 105+ streak was set earlier this year. No pre-2023 streak rivals the two streaks this year.
  7. donsutherland1
    August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday. Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high. Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -10.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today. On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).
  8. donsutherland1
    August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. Gulf Region roasted for another day under near all-time and all-time record heat. All-time record temperatures included: Beaumont: 111° Houston: 109° (tied all-time record) New Iberia, LA: 109° Lafayette, LA: 110° Lake Charles: 109° Lufkin, TX: 111° New Orleans: 105° In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -10.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.769 today. On August 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.182 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.354 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).
  9. donsutherland1
    Temperatures rose into the middle and even upper 80s across the rgion on what will likely be the warmest day for the remainder of August. Philadelphia topped out at 90°. Meanwhile, along the Gulf Coast, a historic heat dome delivered numerous all-time record highs including: Gulfport, MS: 107° (new all-time record) Mobile: 106° (new all-time record) New Orleans: 102° (tied all-time record) Pascagoula, MS: 106° (new all-time record) Pensacola topped out at 105°, which fell 1° short of its all-time record. Baton Rouge, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa, among other cities, remain on track for their hottest month on record. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.167 today. On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.401 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.668 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal).
  10. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Nevertheless, a prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.355 today. On August 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.673 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.906 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal).
  11. donsutherland1
    Not yet. It's going to be more complicated this year if the north Atlantic remains as warm as it is. It could distort the pattern evolution. I don't think it will be a general wall-to-wall NAO+/AO+ winter, though.
  12. donsutherland1
    Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the end of the month. Meanwhile, Chicago reached a daily record-tying 100° today. Houston (109°) and Alexandria, LA (110°) tied their all-time records. In Europe, more than 75 cities in France set new all-time high temperature records. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -12.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.742 today. On August 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.931 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.865 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal).
  13. donsutherland1
    A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are likely later tomorrow and tomorrow night. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -17.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.573 today. On August 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.871 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.751 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).
  14. donsutherland1
    A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -14.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.452 today. On August 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.747 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.560 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).
  15. donsutherland1
    Cooler air will return for tomorrow. Afterward, a prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. Yesterday, Hilary brought an all-time daily record 2.20" rainfall to Death Valley. That tops the previous one- two- and three-day records. It also matches that location's average annual rainfall (1991-2020 baseline) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was unavailable today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.500 today. On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.553 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.295 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.7° (1.4° below normal).
  16. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°. Hilary continues to bring excessive rainfall to the California desert into Nevada. 8 WSW Borrego Spring in San Diego County has seen 6.02" of rain. Daily rainfall records include: Burbank: 1.44" Long Beach: 1.49" Los Angeles: 1.25" Los Angeles (downtown): 1.50" Palm Springs: 2.64" ***new August daily record*** Palmdale: 2.66" ***new August daily record*** San Diego: 0.91" Earlier today, Yuma, Arizona recorded 45 mph sustained winds with gusts to 69 mph. The wind gusted as high as 84 mph in California's mountains. The adjacent heat dome produced impressive record heat. Houston topped out at 108° (2nd highest temperature on record) and College Station hit an all-time record-tying 112°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was unavailable today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.120 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).
  17. donsutherland1
    Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°. Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tonight through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was unavailable today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.511 today. On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.117 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.089 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).
  18. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves through the region. New York City will see readings in the lower 60s. The nearby suburbs could see the mercury dip into the 50s. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tomorrow night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +3.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.091 today. On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.132 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (0.9° below normal).
  19. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Some showers and thundershowers are likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Meanwhile Hilary will bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada Saturday night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -4.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.472 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.134 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.193 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).
  20. donsutherland1
    Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, the current extreme heat event is concluding. Portland topped out at 103° (old record: 102°, 1977), its 4th consecutive 100° or above reading. No August had ever seen 4 or more consecutive 100° temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.414 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.210 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.134 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (0.4° below normal).
  21. donsutherland1
    Slightly cooler air will move into the region tonight. Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event continues. the heat will ease tomorrow. Records included: Eugene: 105° Olympia: 100° Omak: 108° (new August record) Portland: 103° (latest 3-day streak of 100° on record) Salem: 102° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +0.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.568 today. On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal).
  22. donsutherland1
    Rain and thunderstorms are likely tonight. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with locally higher amounts of up to 3.00". Tomorrow will again see readings near or somewhat above normal before slightly cooler air moves into the region. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event is underway. Numerous daily and monthly records fell. Records included: Eugene: 103° (old record: 101°, 2010) Hillsboro, OR: 107° (old record: 101°, 1953 and 2008) ***New August record*** Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record*** Salem: 105° (old record: 102°, 1942) Troutdale, OR: 110° (old record: 101°, 2008) ***New August record*** Vancouver, WA: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record*** The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +3.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.774 today. On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.227 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  23. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow through Tuesday will see readings near or somewhat above normal before a cold front brings briefly cooler readings. Overall, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat could fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event is developing. Already at 3 pm PDT, Portland and Salem had reached 100°. At the height of the heat tomorrow, Portland could see its August high temperature record of 107° challenged. Salem could also challenge its August mark of 108°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +5.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.272 today. On August 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.226 (RMM). The August 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.215 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  24. donsutherland1
    This evening into tonight will likely see scattered showers and thundershowers. A few thunderstorms could be strong to perhaps severe. Not all locations will see thunderstorms. Tomorrow through Tuesday will see readings near or somewhat above normal before a cold front brings briefly cooler readings. Overall, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat could fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +4.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.556 today. On August 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.214 (RMM). The August 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.407 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  25. donsutherland1
    Rain and thunderstorms will likely return to the region tomorrow. Parts of the region could see 1" or more rainfall. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. However, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. for much or all of the next two weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -27.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.868 today. On August 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.218 (RMM). The August 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).
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