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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Having the UKMET support the GFS, GEM and ICON makes me feel a lot better.
  2. frd
    Very true, one small feature can have dramatic effects.
  3. frd
    Wonder when the short wave trough up in New England gets modeled correctly? Jack Sillin mentioned this feature this morning and I posted about it, as you may be aware. I could speculate that if the afternoon Euro today comes in more GFS/PARA /ICON-ish then maybe we can feel a little more confident that it will not be a negative factor for us.
  4. frd
    Since we are closer the the event, even though complexities remain, do you regard the GFS modeling of the event as plausible, or do you weigh more towards the EPS/Euro , or use a blend of the Euro, GFS, Canadian, etc. if you were say going to word this in the afternoon AFD from Mount Holly. Thanks
  5. frd
  6. frd
    Interesting observation from Jack regarding the Canadian versus the Euro. Keep this feature in mind in future model runs.
  7. frd
    From HM, lower part
  8. frd
    Based off some comments from HM along with other modeling I would speculate the EPS might cave to the GEFS longer term colder ideas.
  9. frd
    Deepest - AO is yet to arrive. Very impressive dive from already negative values.
  10. frd
    Losing respect for the EPS. I can't believe the latest possible trends. Still hopeful, but jeez it's never easy. Thought the EPS was solid after yesterday's runs. But, the overnight and this AM.'s Euro is a bit disappointing.
  11. frd
    @poolz1 The GEFS did well as Ventrice mentioned, identifying the cold period , see below. And check out the GEFS 18z I believe the GEPS is also cold, but the EPS is not. Maybe the EPS will move towards the GEFS This vortex feature near Feb 10 th. swings through.
  12. frd
    Latest NAM state forecast
  13. frd
    Looks great for us ! Can't ask for more at this time.
  14. frd
    @psuhoffman thoughts ? More spread?
  15. frd
    Up in the New York area they are panicking that everything will be South of them. Have to view the EPS and see what the trends are, if any.
  16. frd
    What's the potential cause or issue ?
  17. frd
    @psuhoffman Do you think based on the modeling today Eastern areas can see a mostly snow event ? I realize we still have some time to go, but would appreciate any insights, thanks !
  18. frd
    If the NAM shows more confluence, which presently it might be going towards, do we consider it or just view it as the NAM at range ?
  19. frd
    Not going to be happy
  20. frd
    EPS schooling the GFS.
  21. frd
    May go the entire month of February with a - AO. Meanwhile, NW and Western Canada will load with a deepening arctic air mass and it appears that makes it way East in time behind a cutter and then a wave may travel afterwards ushering in the arctic air. When you have as weak vortex, such as we have currently, you can go to this look.
  22. frd
    HM update
  23. frd
    HM mentioning the AAM moving forward.
  24. frd
    Way out there, but one way the pattern evolves. Cold may not be an issue in this time frame. Indices would suggest a high impact winter storm might be possible .
  25. frd
    We are LONG overdue for some positive trends in our hood !
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