WxUSAF

No frost on my car but some rooftop frost in my neighborhood

37 for the MBY low

0z euro and 0z gfs have the “La Nina screw job” solution. Although they’re a pretty big change from earlier runs. Euro AI still a pretty big hit.

Mid-late April?

Kind of seeing the outlines of typical Nina winter storm disappointment in late next weeks action. Still a good chance we get some rain, but you can see how we get fringed in almost every direction. It’s a multi-low pressure sequence. First the southern stream low Sunday-Thesday is pretty consistent across guidance that it passes to our south and scoots out to sea. Then the strong northern stream shortwave dives in and generates a coastal low somewhere. How and where and if any juice from Melissa gets involved is very TBD. But guidance (0z euro) is throwing out various solutions that mostly skip over us. Some still deluge us as well. But what’s Nina climo for late developing coastal lows near our latitude?? Yeah…

Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow?

First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look…

12z euro is insulting

Not surprising given it’s still D8+, but next weeks big storm still has a ton of uncertainty. 0z euro and 6z gfs skip over us entirely. Euro-AI gets us pretty good still though and EPS more or less agrees.

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

Coward!

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

Looks like it will be a fun 7-12 minutes lol

Yeah I’d take 21-22 again for sure as Ninas go. The odds of dead ratter are just baked in with a Nina. And outside the eastern shore, the ceiling is like 80% of climo.

Yeah I think so. March was the snowiest month of the season.

17-18 getting some love on twitter recently as an analog. Webb likes it too. December and January were BN, but January was very dry overall so not much snow. February was a torch. That winter had the equinox snow in March in response to the late winter SSW. https://x.com/justinwx/status/1979664917369364740?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Definitely lake effect or upslope behind a strong cold front if not synoptic

Blocking and a big PNA spike open the window to some sort of strong slow moving system just before Halloween.

Here we go

6 IP with 10 Ks and he hit 3 homers!

Euro totally crapped the bed for Sunday

Low of 37 IMBY. A handful of mesonet stations had their first freeze.

@wxmeddler or @Eskimo Joe, DM @dendrite to answer a question or 2

I lit the batsignal

NOAA seasonal forecasters are almost always ENSO copy-pasted