John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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12z modeling still has the snow event. The ICON better than the GFS for more of us. The GFS has a rain to heavy snow set up. The Canadian isn't out to there yet but looks like it's about to give it ago.
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ICON and Canadian also have the storm. Not as crazy as the GFS obviously.
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15 to 20 inches for the Eastern half of the state there. The GFS has some wild super snow events modeled this year and I don't think a single one has happened to the extent it showed at this range.
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Huge event on the gfs. I don't trust it, but it would be incredible to see.
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2.1 inches here so far and still pouring.
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Close to 2 inches here at 38 degrees. Miserable.
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Obviously with how this winter has gone, they can't be trusted, but the Euro and GFS just dumped on the western half of the forum area.
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Precip has arrived as snow and sleet mixed. Probably have a few minutes of mixed before going to rain.
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It's 37 degrees here with the precip still South and West of me.
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In Chattanooga for the Super Bowl. Looks like it's 35 back home and there's been some rain and snow mixed moving across.
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I was in Anderson County at a basketball tournament. They evacuated the gym. That's twice in the last three years that's happened to me. We had to evacuate at Powell during a tournament there in 2023. The storm was just heavy rain and a lot of lighting in the area I was in, not even any wind. But I left ahead of the tornado arrival time if it didn't fall apart.
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Not as far south as yesterday at 12z but a definite shift south from 06z. Classic 40 battle line.
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As is fairly typical at this range, the Euro is hanging back in the SW and pumping up the SE ridge. Which is why it's probably the furthest N of models currently.
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The 06 wasn't terrible for 40 and north, but I saw that the AI is colder/flatter than it had been. It's getting into the range where it's basically taken all the other operational models to school, all winter. It's the top verification model at 500mb and for 850 temps the last year plus now.
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The Canadian is similar to the GFS, second wave with a nice snow event. Not quite as heavy as the GFS. Lots of possibilities still on the table, rain is probably the most likely solution but hopefully the snowy solutions work out for us.
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The ICON and GFS are back on board with a snow event. The GFS later than the ICON. It did shift south overall.
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Not much good on the overnight models. GFS was an insult to injury run. We miss being too far south then we miss by being too far north.
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18z AI was a shift south, 10+ 40 and south. 8-10 north of 40, 6-8 around the Kentucky/VA border areas. Colder and more suppressed continues on it. Direct opposite of the GFS amped and warmer outcome.
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12z AI was an absolute nuke for some of us. Heavy rain to heavy wet snow.
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The OP was worse, the EPS was better in terms of snowfall potential across the forum area.
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The Euro missed a little north that run, but I was honestly worried it was going to be too suppressed. The AI was pretty suppressed each run so far. The Euro has additional waves of winter weather loaded. Hopefully we can get round one in the chamber and actually have it work out for us, it will affect the future potential if there's a good snowpack.
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Rd 1 on the Euro. We'll see if there's a round 2. There was on the GFS.
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GFS came back south vs 18z. Canadian is a big hitter further south than the GFS. The 40 corridor battle zone effect seems to always be a thing.
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The southern edge "lighter" snow totals will also have some freezing rain/sleet.
