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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Waiting on the GEFS MJO forecast. It's been quickly looping into the COD and going back into the COD phase 8. Which is probably why it's been looking so wintry day 8-16. EMOM would basically end winter as it loops the MJO in 5 for the next month.
  2. John1122
    A bit of scattered snow on the GFS and Canadian inside 10 days, especially higher elevations. GFS went off the rails in the long range compared to the past few runs.
  3. John1122
    Great tracks on the GFS through198, but no cold air in the entire lower 48. That massive vortex in the gulf of Alaska just pumps in Pacific air.
  4. John1122
    The 18z GEFS saw the 2 inch mean expanded in the SW valley areas and down into northern Alabama. It's still snowing on it at the end of the run most likely.
  5. John1122
    Member 18 was no shrinking violet itself.
  6. John1122
    The Euro is frustratingly warm with decent tracks on those systems. Would probably be a snow above 3000 feet scenario if it's right on temp profiles.
  7. John1122
    Do you know the elevation of the cabin you're staying at? It makes a huge difference in upslope events in the Smokies and foothills in regards to seeing snow flurries and showers vs a long duration event with accumulation. LeConte is in a world unto itself in those events as well. It's the premiere upslope location in the entire southern Apps. Sometimes models can bleed snow over onto areas it might not quite happen at because their resolution isn't quite high enough. Especially globals. But the higher up you're staying the better chance of seeing snow and accumulation.
  8. John1122
    The GEFS snow mean actually got a little better for the Valley region vs 18z. It's not really from some massive big hitter on the individual members either. There's a pretty steady agreement across a lot of members for snow, especially along and north of 40 where the mean on there is 2+ inches.
  9. John1122
    Yep, completely different look at 500 means different everything. Pretty standard GFS flop.
  10. John1122
    Snow falling all day, 24 hours in the 20s or colder and an earthquake. Just when wintry days were starting to happen more often that earthquakes this year, along came one to even the score.
  11. John1122
    Had quite a shake from that earthquake. That was the 2nd one in almost the exact same spot in as many days.
  12. John1122
    Light snow and 16 here. It was actually 17 at 8:30 and the temp went down a degree since.
  13. John1122
    I don't remember ever seeing it happen with a front passing quickly. But maybe the front is slowing down enough for some development down south?
  14. John1122
    Potent cold front if nothing else. Temp is hanging out in the 20s.
  15. John1122
    The 6z GFS does something I don't remember seeing by having a gulf low and a cutter at the same time.
  16. John1122
    I understand that! At this point I think our best hope is a rogue ULL. Those can strike Valley wide anytime between now and April 1st. The odds of lasting winter weather are not very high.
  17. John1122
    They made January below normal at first two and quickly reversed course. I imagine they are using their climate model which has been showing a cold February. It was the first to see the end of the winter heatwave we were in too.
  18. John1122
    To add to the indexes. This experimental one apparently has to do with the effects of the MJO. It involves heights, tropical forcing, 200mb winds and other factors. But when it's negative it blunts the MJO's cold phase. Apparently it was negative last winter when the MJO went 8-1-2 and we stayed warm. It's very negative right now of course. https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/extratropics/
  19. John1122
    The GFS initially showed that wave taking the path it just took on the Euro. It was colder than the Euro and gave a few inches of snow to parts of the area. Then all the models went from suppression city to cutter parade. Maybe this will trend back south of us.
  20. John1122
    We simply lived in a colder environment then for whatever reason. It was the same environment that made me excited when Margie Ison said "Alberta Clipper'. That meant 3-5 inches of snow and no school. Now clippers are rare, half the time they produce WAA and rain or nothing here and mainly produce snow over the upper midwest and Ohio Valley. One thing about it after this year, the 1991-2020 30 year normals will make it harder to be AN temp wise and BN snow wise.
  21. John1122
    I actually believe the CFS was the first to see the breaking down of the extreme warmth and the cold shots we are about to experience. The EPS will have an ice box run, then a heat run, then one down the middle. Not saying any model is any better, but that all seem to be sucking badly outside of the few weeks we were in the very stable warm pattern.
  22. John1122
    I know we are used to defacto warmth and that's probably what's going to happen, but the ridiculous levels of model shifting each run shouldn't mean committing to any path they show right now. The EPS is not doing well at all but will likely get hailed as being correct at some point because each run of the EPS and weeklies flop like a fish.
  23. John1122
    I wish it was hour 6! I've seen storms look like that for 10 runs in a row on the Euro only to have them crash in the last 72 hours. The only take away is that we will have an active storm track in the climo peak period for snow, when we need the least help with ultra cold anomalies to see it happen. That's not been common in winter since around 2011.
  24. John1122
    Well, if we see another run as good as that GFS run, I'll be surprised. Widespread 5-15 inches basically across Arkansas, the Northern half of Miss, Georgia and all the way to Upstate SC.
  25. John1122
    GFS about to embrace the multiple storms outlook. Ice storm under 240 for Arkansas and West Tennessee and parts of the rest of the valley, major Miler A coming at 300 or so it appears.
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