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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    FV3 is stuck at 90 for me, but at that hour it's about 200 miles SSW with the LP placement over west Texas vs 12z. HP look similar pressing down into Minnesota. Will have to see if it stays more over the top or if it moves ahead and lets it cut.
  2. John1122
    The GFS OP was N of it's ensembles. This is as good a mean as we've seen in a while.
  3. John1122
    18z shifted south by around 100 miles and brought the heavier snow back into the forum area. Heaviest axis shifted from the Ohio River to Southern/Central Kentucky/SW Virignia. Northern Arkansas and the Western Carolinas also take a big shot. It was mainly due to a slightly stronger high that was slightly further south. The high almost assuredly won't be as strong as modeled. But if it is, more of us will be in the game. 1040+ highs mean business.
  4. John1122
    The Euro looked pretty good. Especially for the western 2/3rd of the forum area. 5-6 days out the Euro/GFS are close. FV3 amped and cutter but still gets wintry in our forum area. Canadian fairly weak. Still all models show some decent accums around our region.
  5. John1122
    GFS remained similar to its 18z with a little less backend action. Still a front end snow event with overrunning. Pretty common way to get snow here. Canadian is similar with the front end but weaker than the GFS. The 850s are really encouraging on the GFS. Will just have to see if they remain so. They blowtorched all but the very far eastern areas in early December and were borderline even on the best modeling. Basically the far Southeastern areas are the only ones with 850 issues this time out. So I think that even the middle Tennessee areas that it's showing a little more rain in would have a good shot at staying all snow, especially with any decent rates, with such a cold layer in place.
  6. John1122
    Massive shift on the 18z GFS. Front end thump for everyone just about and then back end dump for eastern areas. The increase in precip made for an increase in 850s. Another great track though in a much more favorable time of year vs the December event.
  7. John1122
    It's tough on the road in the SEC and Tennessee has had more than it's share of trouble with Alabama over the years. Georgia had given UT a lot of grief recently too, but this game was a big shift. They have some rebuilding to do. Otherwise I believe all the SEC games were tight yesterday. Tennessee's best asset is that it has almost no weaknesses. Kansas probably did the best job with UT this year so far with exploiting the few they have, and that was both getting Grant in foul trouble and playing good defense on Admiral, at the time UT didn't have much punch behind those two. Him being off and Williams out of the game cost UT in overtime. Ironically, losing Turner has let Jordan Bone get a lot of minutes and he's stepped up and turned into one of the best PGs in the league, giving UT and 3rd solid punch who can score. UT did get Turner back yesterday, hopefully he can get back into form over the next few weeks and it doesn't take much away from Bone.
  8. John1122
    If Grant Williams can learn to control his foul situation in big games, we will have a good shot as making the final 4. He also tends to get one absolutely bogus foul call per game when even a blind man in a coal mine could see it's not a foul. So that makes avoiding other silly ones paramount. That said, we will have off nights and Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, Miss State, LSU and some others are capable of beating Tennessee.
  9. John1122
    This are looking more and more interesting for next weekend. GFS and Canadian are suppressed. FV3/Euro much less so. Last couple of runs of the Euro have gotten a little more juicy. 1-4 inches valley wide, heaviest in the eastern mountains. FV3 bullseyes NW Valley and has all but the far southern valley looking pretty good. GFS major bias is suppression. Canadian was more in the Euro/FV3 game until the last run or two. Good set up on the FV3 for classic overrunning valley wide. LP in Texas working across the Gulf. High in Canada with super cold temps up there in Southern Canada. -20s to -30ish. Temps in the 20s/low 30s here when precip arrives. 850s fall into the -1 to -3 range for all but the extreme southern areas as snow overspreads the area. If the path/temp set up from the FV3 comes to pass, it's probably vastly underestimating the snow fall potential, especially from Nashville and points eastward. It has the precip shield just drying out with the LP over the Western Florida panhandle. I would be surprised if that were the case. Euro has more mixing issues and more precip. Not sure why the Euro has the mixing issues, 850s are very very favorable valley wide.
  10. John1122
    Heavy heavy rain, lots of thunder and some hail. Winter is on the clock to return soon.
  11. John1122
    Very loud rolling thunder here as well.
  12. John1122
    Lots of weird things happen in weather and sometimes we don't have an analog for them. Things have probably happened this way before but the window we've recorded weather in is incredibly small. This is an amazingly warm start to January we are looking at. It will be the only January in the last 75 years (that's as far back as I looked) that is very warm that followed up a November as cold as the one just past if the pattern doesn't break down and we stay warm for the month. One of you guys posted the other day that the atmosphere is behaving so oddly that this year may be an analog unto itself. Also, no one should feel bad about any forecast. So far the climate scientist from NASA who's panel I attended is fairing pretty poorly on her winter forecast as well. But we till have a long way to go, we aren't even halfway home. I've had 5 inches of snow already this winter, many of you even more than that. We are still a few weeks from peak winter and we get a solid 30-45 day window where snow and frigid weather can occur.
  13. John1122
    Which comes first, an OC for Tennessee or the return of cold weather?
  14. John1122
    Last year after the split things got frigid here for a month. If we had gotten the split in December or January with any snowcover below 0 would have been easily on the table. As it was, snow was falling here in late March and even April. 1985 is rare territory. I was at -28 degrees on the 21st. The other coldest day of my life was -20 on February 4th 1996. -10 isn't uncommon here but once you start looking at -20 type temps they aren't terribly common at all. Probably an every 50 years type event.
  15. John1122
    This is the November/December 84 into early 85 major SSW that dislodged the PV and wiped out a +AO/+NAO pattern that was blisteringly warm the last 3 weeks of December. The effects were felt pretty quickly, within 10-14 days, with the peak of the effects from January 15th-25th roughly. It was a two wave event as well, the PV was perturbed with the first wave and split in the second. At the time these were record warm temps into January at 10mb.
  16. John1122
    GFS and the Euro are getting closer. Somewhere between Nashville to Fayetteville in a SW to NE line wins big between the two. GFS was a big hitter from Memphis to Clarksville. The Euro was NW of that area. Big shift for the GFS from 0z to 06z. Still a long way out and a lot of wiggle room to go with it but not terribly long at this point. The GFS gets things cooking over West Tn and and Southern Arkansas during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
  17. John1122
    I haven't looked but don't really look. If it's people in the Southeast, that's baffling, a good portion of them already have exceeded their normal snow for the season. They are playing with house money at this point.
  18. John1122
    November 84 was -3.5 December 84 was +9 after being cold/snowy early in the month, temps warmed significantly to close the month (sound familiar?) January 85 was warm the first couple of days. Then the bottom fell out the rest of the month. 84-85 was a weak La Nina. But the atmosphere in some respects, as Carves has pointed out, is acting like a weak La Nina right now. There was a SSW in mid to late December 1984. (December is early for SSW events to happen) This led to the January of 85 cold waves that lasted for just over a month. I don't know that we will get anything remotely like 1985, but there are similarities this year. The fact that the PV is being disturbed so early is a potentially very good scenario.
  19. John1122
    All the globals have some winter potential in about a week for the forum. The Euro is the most suppressed right now. The Canadian is the furthest North and west with wintery weather. The FV3 has a major ice storm and heavy snows in the South and far Eastern areas of the forum. The GFS is almost as suppressed at the Euro. Prefer to be NW of the modeled precip 90 percent of the time, but last year the deep south cashed in several times while we were too far N/W.
  20. John1122
    Virtually all current disco pertains to January at this point, so it's time to fire up the January pattern thread. The Euro weeklies say the potential is there. The cold Nov/cold January is a pretty consistent match. So game on as we move into the heart of winter in the valley. Which I consider our prime winter frame to be Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Our coldest temps and most snow will usually fall in that window. Let's hope the pattern gets right as we head towards prime time.
  21. John1122
    I'm going to have to go to Camp Creek during one of these events. It's probably the strongest low elevation winds you can experience without being in a tornado/storm/hurricane.
  22. John1122
    Canada is looking like it's going to get frigid soon. -10s to -30s closing on on the borders with the US and repeated shots of it on the FV3. So there won't be much, if any waiting on Canada to reload cold. It doesn't take long with maximum darkness over the source areas.
  23. John1122
    This one has been on again off again, but this is a great New Years look, I'll be in Chattanooga per usual, so 40 and North may as well get ready for flakes.
  24. John1122
    Rainy, foggy and mid 30s today. Blah in every way.
  25. John1122
    Not the biggest event but the 5th time I've had accumulation since Mid November. Above 2500 has a couple of inches.
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