John1122

I'm a big believer in weather repeating. November 1983, wishy washy with very warm and very cold weather. Ended up -.2 here or basically normal. November 2022, wishy washy with very warm and very cold weather. Ended up -.5ish here. Or basically normal. December 1983. Warm with several days more than +10. Then big cold hit Christmas week. Single digits highs and well below 0 lows but barely any snow to show for it. It warmed to AN by Dec 28th but did get really cold for New Years. December 2023, very warm with multiple very above average temperatures. Then of course the extreme cold we've had with most of us not getting a lot of snow. Gonna warm up towards New Years January 1984 after a cold first couple of days, warmed to AN, peaking at the mid 60s by Jan 10th. Then the bottom fell out. 4 inches of snow on the 11th in an Anafrontal situation. Stayed just BN, which is plenty cold for Mid January, upper 30s and upper 20s. Then another 3 inches of snow fell on the 16th. Stayed cold, 7 inches fell on the 18th and the bottom dropped out on the thermometer. 3 days in a row with -10s for lows and teens for highs. Warmed up on the 23rd and the snow melted off by the 26th. Warm to the end of the month. February 1984. Mostly warm, but had 4 BN days in a row from the 5th to the 9th and it snowed 7.5 inches and we had a -4 and a -9 low. March 1984 was cold. Snow fell on 12 different days and there was 2.5 inches on March 22nd. Lows in the 10s 5 different days. The March 22nd snow was two days after a 76 degree high on the 20th. So hopefully we can get a similar story to unfold here after a pretty similar late fall and first week of winter of 1983.

That's better than me! Just bitter cold. The clouds socked in and it stayed at 24 again today. My heating bill dollars to inches of snow ratio is going to be skewed badly after the last 4 days.

That's 3 more than I got north of LaFollette.

Already seeing videos of people doing donuts in West Town Mall parking lot.

The clipper just swung very far west and south compared to most clippers.

Never seen a clipper causing precip down towards the Gulf Coast. We'd normally be lucky to be in the section that's down in Alabama now.

One thing about MRX, they are consistent on not putting out advisories.

Yeah. They are white here. So are several parking lots.

This is unique in my memory. I've never that I can recall been too far north for a clipper. Most clippers here you hope to stay cold enough for all snow if the moisture even reaches this far south. Looks like that band of 1.5 inches some models were showing may come to pass in parts of Central Knox.

GFS - you get 5 inches from Arctic front. ---- WRONG! GFS - you get nothing from Clipper ---- Perfect forecast! I'll never know how models can be so bad for snow it shows that doesn't happen but so perfect for snow that it shows missing.

It's close to me but 50/50 that it just dies as it gets here like it did when the Arctic front moved through the other night.

Not a common thing in my experience to be too far north for a clipper but it looks like north of 40 will be in Eastern areas. Southern valley/Chattanooga is looking like a secondary bullseye across almost all modeling now for a quick inch or so.

The HRRR is still healthy for western areas, especially north of 40. It's trying to squeeze out an inch or so in the East.

My grandpa always said, "if it clouds up a frost, snow is on the way."

The 21z RAP is 1+ almost valley wide. Quite a bit more out west.

As for the cold section of the thread. My high today was 24.4 after a low of 6.2 this morning. Maybe the coldest multi day stretch we've ever seen with such minimal snow cover. I was colder in December 1989 but had several inches of snow on the ground. Also colder in 1985 but had a lot snow on the ground.

The various NAM nest models are downright aggressive. Especially for the mid-state. The Canadian family seems to like the Chattanooga area. The GFS and HRRR have a nice 1 to 1.5 around Knoxville.

Several models are coming in with .75 to 1.5 inches from the clipper tomorrow. WFOs are playing it way down, especially MRX, but it may surprise. Every flake will stick on all surfaces.

I'm counting it as a White Christmas.

That's a odd result. PWATs are about the same as they are over Missouri where 3-4 inches falls. The 700mb to below 850 is saturated per the sounding. The dry air is just above the surface up to about 3000 feet.

I've managed to get above 0, up to 7 degrees now. Had about 1/2 inch of snow overnight.

The ICON seems to get the clipper into the region. Looked good across Kentucky and North Central Tennessee. No maps available on tropical for snowfall for some reason.

Looks like the RGEM and to some extent, the UKIE are on board with the clipper. The GFS/NAM remain skeptical. Not sure that isn't what we want to see after they both schooled the American models with the system that just passed.

It's been killing it this fall and early winter.

It coated the cars that had been driven today. It's tiny flakes about as big around as pencil erasers. But quite a lot of them.